Tech Rebound or Tech Abandonment: How Do You View Buffett’s Final Portfolio?
Warren Buffett’s final portfolio adjustment before stepping down as CEO is more than just another 13F filing.
With the latest 13F disclosure from Berkshire Hathaway, the legendary Warren Buffett’s final portfolio shift before retiring as CEO has come to light. This $274 billion portfolio is not just the Oracle’s "curtain call"—it serves as a massive question mark:
In the AI-driven world of 2026, is Big Tech still the place to be?
1. Contradictory Signals: The Oracle Retreats, Institutions "Underweight"?
Buffett’s moves remain characteristically decisive and defensive:
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$Apple(AAPL)$ was trimmed for the third straight quarter, and Amazon was slashed by a staggering 77%.
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Increased stakes in $Chevron(CVX)$ and $Chubb(CB)$, and even initiated a new position in $New York Times(NYT)$.
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Record-breaking $381.7 billion in cash on hand.
2. Early 2026 Slump: A Bursting Bubble or a "Loading" Opportunity?
Tech stocks certainly faced a "winter chill" at the start of 2026. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ recently suffered a five-week losing streak, its longest in nearly four years.
Institutions are currently in their most significant "underweight" position on tech in 17 years.
Data shows that the gap between Mega-cap tech weight in institutional portfolios and the S&P 500 benchmark has widened to -155 basis points. Interestingly, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ has become the most under-owned stock (a gap of -2.57%), followed closely by Microsoft and Amazon.
The burning question: If both Buffett and major institutions are cutting exposure or underweighting, who is buying the dip?
3. Investors are starting to realize they may have "overreacted"?
The previous sell-off has turned several high-flying leaders into unexpectedly attractive value plays.
The Nasdaq has rallied for consecutive days as the market re-evaluates the value-creation potential of Adobe and Microsoft in the generative AI space. While hardwarew remains the "AI bedrock," capital is moving from "blind betting" to "selective picking."
Join the Discussion:
Should we follow Buffett’s lead and sit on cash?
Is this a final warning about a tech bubble, or is it simply the closing of one era?
Do you think now is the time to "buy the dip" on NVIDIA and Microsoft,
Share your thoughts in the comments to win tiger coins~
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Should we follow Buffett’s lead and sit on cash?
Is this a final warning about a tech bubble, or is it simply the closing of one era?
Do you think now is the time to "buy the dip" on NVIDIA and Microsoft,
Share your thoughts in the comments to win tiger coins~
@MHh @icycrystal @rL @DiAngel @melson @GoodLife99 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Aqa @Fenger1188 @Shyon @Mrzorro
Come and join!
Buffett is 94. He is not trying to time Nvidia's next earnings beat or Microsoft's next AI announcement. He is preparing Berkshire for the next 50 years, not the next 50 trading days. When you are managing almost USD 1 trillion dollars, you don't buy the dip. You wait for the world to go on clearance sale.
For us mere mortals, we don't need to copy every move of the Oracle of Omaha. We definitely don't need to panic sell Nvidia just because he trimmed Apple.
We are trying to buy good companies at fair prices without losing sleep.
Is it time to buy Nvidia or Microsoft?
Yes if you believe that these companies will still dominate 5 to 10 years from now.
Buffett once said:
Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.
When it does I will be standing outside with a bucket.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars
Warren Buffett’s massive cash position is viewed by many analysts as a deliberate defensive posture against an expensive market, though it may not necessarily be a "final warning" of an imminent crash.
As of early 2026, the tech sector is navigating significant volatility, with heavyweights like NVIDIA and Microsoft seeing notable pullbacks from their 2025 all-time highs.
While some see this as an AI bubble beginning to burst, others view it as a "normalization" where markets are starting to distinguish between true AI disruptors and those merely benefiting from temporary hype.
Buy the Dip? NVIDIA and Microsoft Analysis
Both companies have experienced sharp pullbacks in early 2026, leading some to see them as "surprising bargains" and others to remain cautious.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft started 2026 with a roughly 15% year-to-date decline following its January earnings report.
The Bull Case: From a valuation standpoint, Microsoft is considered at its cheapest levels since the start of the AI revolution, with a P/E multiple of roughly 25—its lowest in three years. Sell-side analysts remain bullish with price targets implying nearly 48% upside.
The Bear Case: Investors are increasingly skeptical of the return on investment (ROI) for Microsoft's accelerating AI infrastructure capital expenditures.
NVIDIA (NVDA)
NVIDIA's outlook is tied heavily to its data center and AI GPU prospects.
Valuation: Some analysts consider NVIDIA "moderately undervalued" with a fair value estimate of $240 per share.
The "Gift" Scenario: Analysts predict a potential drop after its February 25, 2026, earnings update due to "high-expectations," which could serve as a "gift" for long-term investors to enter at better prices.
The pullback in the NASDAQ Composite looks more like sentiment-driven repositioning to me. With institutions underweight and names like NVIDIA and Microsoft now less crowded, the setup feels more selective than broken.
Personally, I’m not moving fully to cash. I prefer scaling in when fear rises. This feels less like a bubble bursting and more like the shift from AI hype to disciplined accumulation. For long-term investors, volatility is often the price we pay for outsized returns. I’d rather build positions gradually than wait for perfect clarity. If fundamentals remain intact, today’s fear could become tomorrow’s opportunity.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
Opinions are divided on whether current market conditions represent a "final warning" or a transition between eras.
Bubble Warnings: Some experts compare today's AI excitement to the early internet era, where technology was transformative but investors overpaid for "stories" rather than cash flow. Risks include aggressive spending on AI infrastructure that may not generate sufficient economic returns and collapsing unit economics for AI tokens.
A "Closing Era" Perspective: Others argue this is not yet a bubble because recent market gains have been driven by large, profitable companies. The current boom might be a "financing cycle" breaking, where expectations outpace immediate industry capacity.
Specific Warnings: Notable sales by Berkshire in late 2025 included a massive 77% cut to its Amazon stake, despite Amazon Web Services' role in the AI boom.
Following Buffett's lead depends on your investment timeframe and goals. While he is hoarding cash, he has clarified that Berkshire will always prefer owning good businesses over cash-equivalent assets when the price is right.
Valuation Concerns: Buffett has sold large portions of major holdings, including Apple (slashing over 55% in early 2024 and 69% by mid-2025) and Bank of America (reducing the stake by 41% since mid-2023). These sales were motivated by high valuations and potential future increases in capital gains taxes.
The "Wait and See" Approach: Analysts suggest this massive cash pile is a "weapon" intended for strategic maneuvers or major acquisitions during market downturns.
Risks of Too Much Cash: Over-investing in cash can be detrimental due to limited returns (often below 5%) and the eroding power of inflation. The S&P 500 historically provides much higher average annual returns (above 10%).
Reflect: needs discipline to hold cash as took some profits last quarter but itch to buy on dips depletes funds again.
Diversifying out of tech and AI would also give some defence while others are going all in.
Then again, they have money at the levels of which commonfolk can only dream of, so some of us can only make limited investments choices and the dream of striking it rich in AI and tech is highly tempting.
2. No. This is a Buffett portfolio liquidity issue
3. Yes, long 20%+ of the us economy is a good investment in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Microsoft(MSFT)$