Volatility Returns? Tactical Setups in SPX, QQQ, SMH, GLD Amid Iran Risk

In early 2025, I modeled a potential decline to $4,800 for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ ; the index eventually bottomed at $4,830 in April. This followed my previous warnings regarding the July 2024 selloff, which ultimately found its floor during the Yen carry-trade liquidation in August.

Today, we are witnessing a distinct asymmetric condition in the market. Sectors outside of Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financials are rallying, while Tech, Megacaps, and Bitcoin (BTC used as a “risk-on” thermometer), have already reached oversold conditions. This is atypical, as major market tops are usually characterized by synchronized overbought conditions across all sectors.

In today’s publication you will read the different signals to watch ahead of a week with renewed reasons to be volatile, this time related to geopolitical situations with Iran.

Since November, then the SPX has gone nowhere, I have highlighted the power of individual names, also enriching the variety of our watchlist including names like $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ to our weekly analysis. Today $Visa(V)$ as another megacap is added to balance the view and opportunities.

Last week, our setups hit their weekly targets, including:

$VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ : $429.2 (+3.3%)
$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : $484.0 (+3.3%)
$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ : $615.0 (+1.0%)
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ : $694.4 (+0.7%) — I mentioned on Wednesday afternoon that closing the position was valid in case of a bull trap following NVDA earnings.

When trading high-probability setups with specific targets and invalidation levels, performance in a choppy market significantly improves.

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Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

To The Moon