To The Moon

The escalation of US-Iran conflict and subsequent spike in oil prices have been, the primary causes for US market's volatility last week. (see below)

For week ending 06 Mar 2026:

• Dow: -2.87% (-1,403.28 to 47,501.55). Its biggest decline since early April 2025.

• S&P 500: -2.06% (-141.60 to 6,740.02). Its biggest weekly percentage loss since mid-October 2025.

• Nasdaq: -1.59% (-361.18 to 22,387.68).

Objectively speaking, there were other underlying economic and technical factors that ‘aided’ to exacerbate the decline. (see below)

Other Reports.

Below were US economic reports for last week:

(1) Jobless Claims.

(a) Weekly claims.

For week ending 28 Feb 2026, US weekly jobless claims came in ‘flat’ at 213,000 vs market consensus of 215,000 vs previous week claims of 213,000. (see below)

Despite broader US market jitters, the "low-fire" environment suggests that while companies have slowed their hiring pace, they are not yet engaging in mass layoffs.

The 4-week moving average, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged down to 215,750, indicating a steady, if not stagnant, entry-level for new unemployment.

(b) Continuing claims.

For week ending 21 Feb 2026, US continuing claims rose significantly by +46,000 to 1.868 million vs analysts’ consensus of 1.85 million vs previous week’s claim of $1.822 million. (see above)

Incidentally, it is the highest level recorded year-to-date.

This is a concern as it signals a "low-hire" market; where workers who have lost their jobs are finding it increasingly difficult to secure new ones.

(2) US Non-farm Payroll.

The biggest surprise of the week must have been US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) - US Non-farm payroll report for February 2026, released on Fri, 06 Mar 2026.

US employers unexpectedly cut -92,000 jobs in February 2026, a massive miss against the consensus expectation of 59,000 gain and January 2026’s downwards revised 126,000. (see above)

This decline was the 6th since January 2025 and the 2nd largest.

This marked a stark reversal from January 2026's growth and signaled that US labour market, previously thought to be stabilizing, may be entering a period of cyclical contraction.

Although some economists cautioned against reading too much into just one month's report, the trend in job growth has weakened, that cannot be denied.

Over the last 3 months, US added on the average only 6,000 jobs per month, compared to 50,000 jobs per month earlier in the year.

Falling Sectors.

• The February decline was led ​by US Healthcare sector, that has shed -28,000 positions following a large increase of +77,000 in January 2026.

• Likewise, Construction sector lost -11,000 jobs, after bolstering employment in recent months, driven by the growing demand for new data centers. It was residential specialty trade contractors that accounted for most of the drop.

• Leisure & hospitality, that employs roughly 1 in 10 American workers, lost -27,000 jobs.

The ‘surprise’ result put US’s central bank in a difficult spot amid rising oil prices, a renewed tariff noise and fresh inflationary impulses.

(3) US Unemployment.

For February 2026, US unemployment rate, rose by +0.1% to 4.4% vs analysts’ consensus of 4.3% vs January 2026’s 4.3%, catching many analysts by surprise.

It is inching closer to November 2025’s 4-year high of 4.5% (see below)

The unemployment rate for workers age 25 and up with only a high-school education rose to 4.8% in February from 4.6% in January. The unemployment rate for workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher stayed steady at 3%.

The number of unemployed increased by +203,000 to 7.57 million, while total employment fell by -185,000 to 162.91 million.

US labour force grew modestly by +18,000 to 170.48 million, pushing participation rate down by -0.1% point to 62.0%.

Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, that includes discouraged and underemployed workers, declined to 7.9% from 8.1%.

All the while, US Labour Force Participation Rate ticked down to 62%, suggesting that workers are not just losing jobs but are increasingly discouraged and exiting the workforce.

This combination of data points fueled fears that the economy is cooling faster than the Federal Reserve anticipated.

(4) Wage Inflation.

Despite the job losses, US’s Average Hourly Earnings rose by +0.4% for the month of February 2026, and +3.8% YoY. (see below)

To any investor, this is a worst-case signal of stagflation - a weakening US economy coupled with persistent wage pressure.

Higher wages suggest that service-sector inflation remains "sticky".

This will complicate the Fed's ability to lower interest rates to support the flagging US labour market.

(5) GDP Downwards Revision.

Following the weak US employment data, US Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 2026 was slashed to 2.1% from 3.1%. (see below)

What is GDPNow ?

• It is a forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate, prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis

Even though the -1.0% fall was only a forecast of US’s Q1 2026 gross domestic product (GDP), it still has a ripple effect on stock prices.

Perhaps, US market is finally adjusting to the reality that the economy is struggling in 2026.

What Now ?

With last week's soft US economic reports (see above) now digested and the US-Iran conflict dragging on without escalation, will this week's US economic reports hold potential to amplify war-driven volatility ?

This week’s US economic reports include:

• Wed, 11 Mar 2026 - Consumer Price Index (CPI).

• Thu, 12 Mar 2026 - Jobless claims, weekly & continuing.

• Thu, 12 Mar 2026 - US Trade Deficit.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - US Q4 2025 first revision.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) for January 2026.

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - Jobs Opening and Labour Turnover Surveys (JOLTs).

• Fri, 13 Mar 2026 - US Consumer Sentiments for March 2026.

Consumer Price Index.

Headline CPI Inflation is expected to rise +0.3% MoM.

Core CPI could surprise higher if oil passthrough hits transport/energy services, reinforcing stagflation narrative and delaying Fed cuts. A soft print, however, might ease yields and offset war jitters.

Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)

Consumer sentiments is expected to wane, driven by war-fueled gas price fears. cratering confidence.

It echo last week's consumer weakness and fueling recession bets; resilience here would underscore US energy independence as a buffer.

Personally I think this week’s reports risk compounding Iran headlines only if hot inflation meets plunging sentiment.

Otherwise, they will likely play second fiddle to oil/geopolitics, with markets trading tactical dips amid "War & Wattage" resilience. Agree ?

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