To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

1. The US Market - 3rd Straight Weekly Drop on Oil Whipsaw and Sticky Inflation

• Downward trend:The major U.S. stock indexes fell for the 3rd consecutive week, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ , $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ , and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ dropping around 1% to 2%. Geopolitical tensions & elevated oil prices continued to weigh on stock & bond prices.

• Oil's wild ride: Conflict in the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fueled oil market volatility for a second week, with U.S. crude futures spiking to $119 per barrel on Monday and then briefly slipping below $77 the next day.

• Volatility elevated: The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ finished the week at 27.2, down from 29.5 at the end of the previous week.

• Sticky inflation: Last Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index reading on core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—came in at 3.1% in January, rose 0.4% on a month-to-month basis.

• Yields surge again: The 10-year Treasury yield finished the week at 4.28%, up from 4.15% the previous week. Prices of U.S. government bonds fell as elevated oil prices fueled inflationary pressures.

• GDP setback:Friday’s revision showed that GDP grew at an annual rate of 0.7% in the fourth quarter. The figure was down from the 1.4% estimate released in February and well below the 4.4% rate recorded in last year’s third quarter.

• Fed's two days meeting ahead: Friday’s trading in rate futures markets implied a 99% probability that the Fed would keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, March 18, according to CME FedWatch.

Read more>>https://ttm.financial/news/2619310032

2. US Market: Energy Resilience Amid Broad-Based Selloff

Major benchmarks declined for the week ended March 13, 2026. The Energy sector (+2.26%) was the sole gainer on geopolitical safe-haven flows. Basic Materials (-3.42%) led declines, followed by Financial (-3.38%) and Industrials (-3.1%). Utilities (+0.23%) and Comsumer Defensive (-0.17%) outperformed relatively on AI demand resilience.

10 Large-Cap Movers :

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ -4.83%: The company's AI model "Avocado" launch was delayed to May, compounded by billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller liquidating his entire position.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ -2.83%: Despite unveiling its 50th-anniversary product lineup, CEO Tim Cook warned that rising memory prices would erode margins.

• $Microsoft(MSFT)$ -3.28%: Despite Copilot paid seats surging 160% year-over-year, the market continues to question returns on its roughly $50 billion annual AI infrastructure investments.

• $Adobe(ADBE)$ -12.09%: CEO Shantanu Narayen's announced departure plans intensified market concerns over AI disrupting its creative software business model.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ +1.06%: The most resilient performer among the Mag 7, supported by the completion of its $32 billion Wiz acquisition and the launch of Gemini AI-powered mapping features.

• $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ +3.25%: Brent crude prices breached $100 per barrel, making the energy sector the sole safe-haven for risk-averse capital.

• $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ +25.47%: Launched new industrial-grade memory cards and obtained certifications; 2026 year-to-date gains have exceeded 160%, making it the best performer among large-cap stocks.

• $Micron Technology(MU)$ +15.08%: Wedbush raised its price target, with memory chips favored by capital inflows driven by AI infrastructure demand.

• $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ +22.59%: Achieved quarterly profitability for the first time in Q4 2025, with markets reacting positively to this earnings inflection point.

• $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ -0.17%: Geopolitical anxiety heightened over the Iran war and potential disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, pressuring Asia's leading semiconductor manufacturer.

3. Hong Kong Market: HSI declines 0.9% Despite Tech Divergence

$HSI(HSI)$ : The $HSI(HSI)$ closed at 25,361.29 (-0.9%), rebounding on maritime and select internet strength.

$HSTECH(HSTECH)$ :The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ added 0.62% to 4821.26. Maritime and port sectors rallied on supply chain normalization, while healthcare and insurance faced profit-taking.

10 Large-Cap Movers:

• $SHANDONG MOLONG(00568)$ + 37.23%, attributed to the geopolitical-driven energy-crisis trade.

• $CATL(03750)$ +21.05%, attributed to southbound capital’s defensive allocation into the new-energy vehicle bellwether.

• $NIO-SW(09866)$ +18.46%: The EV maker surged after reporting its first-ever quarterly profit in Q4 2025 and upbeat guidance for 2026 further fueled buying interest.

• $MINIMAX-WP(00100)$ +25.39%: The AI pure-play skyrocketed as its integration with the viral OpenClaw agent and new Voice/Music Maker features reinforced its multi-modal capabilities.

• $LEAPMOTOR(09863)$ +8.39%; underpinned by February deliveries surging over 100% year-on-year and expectations of gross-margin turning positive.

• $AIR CHINA(00753)$ -8.64%, attributed to the dual squeeze from jet-fuel costs and revenue streams as oil prices breached $100/barrel.

• $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$ -3.47%, attributed to intensifying e-commerce competition and concerns that the short-video sector’s traffic (dividend) has peaked.

• $RENCO HOLDINGS(02323)$-3.71%: Geopolitical tensions ongoing reforms in the life insurance sector continued to pressure premium growth expectations.

• $XTALPI(02228)$ Crystal International (02228 HK) -5.57%: The apparel manufacturer slumped on deepening concerns over softening global retail demand and rising inventory levels across the clothing supply chain.

• $COSCO SHIP DEV(02866)$ -4.69%: The shipping leaser declined despite soaring freight rates, as markets feared prolonged geopolitical disruptions would ultimately compress global trade volumes.

4. Singapore Market: $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ Falls 0.12% on Safe-Haven Rotation

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined -2.9% to 4848.25, pressured by Middle East geopolitical tensions. Palm oil and defense stocks attracted safe-haven flows, while aviation, REITs, and transport suffered from fuel cost and demand risks.

Top 9 Large-Cap Movers (Market Cap Top 50):

• $First Resources(EB5.SI)$ -2.19%: Palm oil proxy surged on oil price spike and biodiesel demand; +13.22% single-day move on March 6.

• $AEM SGD(AWX.SI)$ +2.77%: AI chip test equipment demand from semiconductor recovery.

• $ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ -0.64%: Defense safe-haven play; multi-year highs on expectations of increased global military expenditure.

• $SIA(C6L.SI)$ -1.65%: Q3 net profit collapsed -68.9% on high prior-year Vistara merger base and Air India associate losses; Middle East conflict risks to jet fuel compounded weakness.

• $ComfortDelGro(C52.SI)$ -2.05%: Fell on fuel cost fears despite Silchester International raising stake to 7.05% on March 4.

• $CapitaLandInvest(9CI.SI)$ -2.08%: REIT manager sold off on persistent high interest rates and flight-to-safety sentiment.

• $YZJ Shipbldg SGD(BS6.SI)$ -5.01%: Profit-taking after prior week's +16% surge; maintains robust $23.2 billion order book through 2028/2029.

• $Venture(V03.SI)$ +1.88%: Defensive tech name dragged by broad risk-off despite solid NAV of USD 8.73/share.

• $Wilmar Intl(F34.SI)$+8.88%: The surge in crude oil prices drove palm oil prices to their largest single-day gain in recent years. This was compounded by brokerages upgrading Wilmar to a "Buy" rating.

5. Australia Market: ASX 200 Slides 3.8% on China Slowdown Fears

$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ 200 fell -3.8% to 8851, with Energy the only positive sector among top-20 names. Materials and Financials led declines on iron ore price softness and China stimulus doubts.

Top 8 Large-Cap Movers:

• $WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD(WDS.AU)$ +0.94%: Direct beneficiary of Brent crude breaching $100/barrel amid the Hormuz crisis, with investors treating it as a proxy for soaring energy prices. The LNG-heavy profile offered defensive cash flow visibility.

• $SANTOS LIMITED(STO.AU)$ +0.94%: similarly rode the oil price spike and supply disruption fears, with its diversified Australasian production base offering direct leverage to elevated commodity prices. Strong free cash flow yield attracted capitals.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ -5.7%: Plunged on China steel demand worries and softening iron ore prices, compounded by portfolio rotation out of diversified miners into pure-play energy names. The petroleum division provided insufficient offset against steep base metal declines.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ -0.62%: Edged lower on persistent China property headwinds pressuring iron ore sentiment, though its aluminium assets offered partial insulation from energy cost inflation. Selective dip-buying limited downside.

• $NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LTD(NAB.AU)$ +0.62%: Gained as a high-yield financial refuge amid market turmoil, with improving net interest margin outlook providing stability. Relative value hunting supported the move after the sector’s 2026 underperformance.

• $COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA(CBA.AU)$ ) +0.75%: Rose as the flight-to-safety trade favored Australia’s largest lender and its fortress balance sheet. Consistent dividend track record attracted capital fleeing volatile resource names.

• $COLES GROUP LTD(COL.AU)$ -1.73%: Slumped on concerns that $100+/barrel fuel prices would inflate logistics costs and erode thin grocery margins. Worries about consumer spending softness under heightened macro uncertainty added pressure.

• $WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD(WOW.AU)$ -0.72%: Drifted lower on similar diesel cost inflation fears impacting its extensive distribution network. The modest decline relative to Coles suggested better pricing execution and cost management resilience.

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Key Economic Data

Plenty of catalysts this week—$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 's AI narrative test, potential hawkish dots from the Fed, plus back-to-back China tech bellwethers ($Alibaba(BABA)$ & $TENCENT(00700)$ ) and $FedEx(FDX)$ (the economy's canary in the coal mine).

🔥 Headliners

• Monday: $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ GTC 2026 kicks off with CEO Jensen Huang's keynote

• Wednesday: FOMC rate decision (market expects unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%)

📊 Macro Data

• Wednesday: February Producer Price Index (PPI)

2. Earnings Spotlight: $TENCENT(00700)$ , $Micron Technology(MU)$, $First Trust Large Cap Core AlphaDEX Fund(FEX)$ , $Alibaba(BABA)$ ,

Notable mentions: $Micron Technology(MU)$ (semiconductors), $FedEx(FDX)$ (economic bellwether), $Alibaba(BABA)$ & $TENCENT(00700)$ (China tech), plus $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ and $Docusign(DOCU)$ on the retail/software front.

Monday

• Pre: $VinFast Auto(VFS)$ , $KE Holdings Inc.(BEKE)$ , $VNET Group(VNET)$ , $Dollar Tree(DLTR)$

• After: $Semtech(SMTC)$

Tuesday

• Pre: $Tencent Music(TME)$ , $Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc.(ASO)$

• After: $ZTO Express Inc.(ZTO)$, $Lululemon Athletica(LULU)$ , $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ , $Docusign(DOCU)$

Wednesday

• Pre: $Macy's(M)$ , $Jabil Circuit(JBL)$ , $General Mills(GIS)$ , $SailPoint Parent, LP(SAIL)$ , $TENCENT(00700)$

• After: $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $DLocal Limited(DLO)$ , $Five Below(FIVE)$ , $Red Cat Holdings Inc.(RCAT)$

Thursday

• Pre: $Accenture PLC(ACN)$, $Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ , $Canadian Solar(CSIQ)$ , $Intuitive Machines(LUNR)$ , $Alibaba(BABA)$

• After: $Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$ , $FedEx(FDX)$ , $Gemini Space Station Inc(GEMI)$

Friday

• Pre: $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$