To The Moon

The surge in NAND and DRAM prices is real. However, investors should separate short-term earnings momentum from the long-term “supercycle” thesis.

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1. Why NAND prices are exploding right now

Research firm TrendForce recently raised its forecast for NAND flash prices to rise ~85–90% QoQ in 1Q2026, reflecting severe supply shortages and strong enterprise demand. 

The key drivers:

AI data centres

Hyperscalers are buying massive enterprise SSD capacity for training and inference workloads. 

Supply discipline

Memory makers are limiting capacity expansion and shifting production to higher-margin DRAM and HBM. 

Structural shortage

Memory suppliers are prioritising AI infrastructure over consumer devices. 

This is why Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix currently have significant pricing power.

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2. Why Micron earnings could surprise again

Analysts expect strong results because:

Memory prices (DRAM + NAND) have surged ~90–109% since late 2025. 

AI demand is driving huge margin expansion for memory companies. 

Wall Street expects AI-related memory demand to remain strong through 2026. 

This means storage companies such as:

Micron

Western Digital / SanDisk

SK Hynix

Samsung

can post windfall profits during the pricing upswing.

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3. Will the memory “supercycle” extend to 2027?

There is credible evidence it might.

Several analysts expect memory shortages to last until at least late 2027 due to AI demand and slow capacity expansion. 

Three structural trends support this:

AI inference explosion

Every AI query consumes DRAM + NAND storage in servers.

AI PCs and AI smartphones

Local AI models increase memory requirements per device.

High-bandwidth memory (HBM) shift

HBM uses 3× more wafers than standard memory, tightening supply elsewhere.

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4. The risk investors often forget

Memory is still a notoriously cyclical industry.

Two factors could break the supercycle:

1. Hyperscaler capex slowdown

2. Massive supply expansion from Samsung or Micron

Historically, once supply catches up, memory prices can fall 50–70% within a year.

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5. Bottom line for investors

Short term (2026): bullish

NAND price surge

AI data-centre demand

Micron earnings upside

Medium term (2027): still positive but volatile

AI infrastructure may extend the cycle

but memory remains cyclical

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💡 My macro takeaway:

AI is transforming memory from a commodity cycle into an infrastructure cycle. If that thesis holds, the next memory downturn may be shallower than past cycles, which is why investors are suddenly talking about a “memory supercycle.”