The short and long term impact of the Middle Eastern War
Can it get much worse?
Fresh food into the Gulf. Roughly 70% of food consumed in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq moves through the Strait of Hormuz — and replacing disrupted imports would require moving 191 million pounds of food into the region every single day. For context, the WFP delivers 15 million pounds per day globally. Project Syndicate The maths don't work. Air freight facilitates the shipment of pharmaceuticals for the wealthy. Bulk staples—rice, flour, cooking oil—cannot be moved that way.
Blackouts and hospitals. The cascade is already running. Bangladesh closed universities. Pakistan and the Philippines are on four-day workweeks. These are demand-destruction signals — governments reducing consumption because they cannot guarantee supply. What follows next is rolling blackouts, then hospitals rationing generator fuel, then MRI units going dark as helium shortages bite.
Chips. Helium consultant Kornbluth: It is "getting hard to imagine" the world is not looking at a minimum 2–3 month shutdown of helium production and a 4–6 month period before the supply chain returns to normal. CNBC DRAM and HBM chip prices nearly doubled in Q1 2026. Intel stated: "There's no relief until 2028." Medium: The chip crisis is here now — the Gulf war accelerated something that was already building from AI demand.
Famine and social unrest. WFP: "If the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises — taking global hunger to an all-time record." UN News Wealthier Asian importers can draw on reserves. Poorer fuel and food-importing states in Africa and Asia face higher household prices, fiscal strain, and a greater risk of rationing or unrest
The above is compiled with the help of Claude and Grok.
My Thoughts
The only winner in wars is death.
Without clear objectives in the war, multiple war fronts would bring rippling impacts from the Gulf to the rest of the world. We need energy for our personal, commercial and industrial use. Airlines, travel, and supply chain are the first that come to my mind.
With the impact rolling into semiconductors, farmers, we can expect more bottlenecks in the future. Should this drag on, this can lead to a global energy shortage and food supply challenges, especially with the disruptions to the supply chain. Will this slow down the AI growth where energy is the fuel and chips are the brains?
Let us monitor as the impact hits home through pump prices and energy rationing.
Let us prepare and continue to hedge as private credit continues to falter after a series of withdrawals and withdrawal limitations.
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