To The Moon

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

$GE Aerospace(GE)$ is scheduled to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, at 7:30 AM ET. As a newly minted pure-play aerospace leader following the GE Vernova spin-off, this report is a major litmus test for its ability to maintain high margins and convert its massive backlog into realized profit. Earnings Estimates & Context Consensus EPS: $1.81 (Range: $1.59–$1.81 depending on the analyst pool). Consensus Revenue: ~$11.61 billion (Up ~18% year-over-year). FY 2026 Guidance: The company previously set a target of $7.10 – $7.40 EPS. Watch for any tightening or lifting of this range. History: GE has a strong history of "beats," with an average earnings surprise of around 14% over the last four quarters. GE Aerospace’s Q4 2025 earn

Hopefully a permanent resolution can be reached in the near future. This needs to end.

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

Just started so see how things go 

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

Hi the latest news The day after talks collapsed, Trump escalated hard. US Central Command announced a blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, and Trump threatened to prevent ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz entirely. NBC News He also said the US military is looking at resuming limited strikes inside Iran. The Strait carries roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. Any serious disruption there hits energy prices, shipping costs, and global risk appetite all at once. We are not in full escalation yet — but the direction of travel is not comforting, and investors who are not paying attention are going to get caught off guard. Even as the situation escalated, stocks wavered and oil held relatively steady — which tells you something important. The market is alr

Chinese Automobile stocks rose in early trading on Monday (13 April), bucking the wider market trend after data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showed that automobile exports surged 56.7% YoY in Q1. $NIO-SW(09866)$ led gains in the sector, rising 6.6% in morning trade on strong ES9 pre-orders. Amplifying the return, the NIO 5x Long DLC surged 33%. There is currently no Short DLC on NIO listed for trading. Other automobile-related counters similarly rose, with $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ up more than 5.6%, sending the BYD 5x Long DLC up about 28%, and the BYD 5x Short DLC declined by similar magnitude. $XPENG-W(09868)$ ,

May not be stabilize untill aggrement done between US and Iran.

May not be stabilize untill aggrement done between US and Iran

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

the best strategy is  1. short it when the price is extremely high 2. hold it, and unload it when the price sudden drop due to opposition to Trumps thought let plan. 3. Repeaf the above in reverse order

Good and bro  slskaososokchcjkx

Firstly The price action was already showing resiliency last Thursday before the Good Friday holiday. The market went down initially following Trump’s national address over the Iran war update, as investors were anticipating an end to the war—but Trump said to continue instead. Yet the market recovered almost all its losses by end of day, showing strength. Some investors may still think that the worst isn’t over because the ceasefire looks fragile—Israel is bombarding Lebanon and Iran said the ceasefire includes non-bombing of Lebanon. Iran has continued to restrict ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz to about a dozen a day and is imposing tolls. The US isn’t happy about the tolls as the ceasefire was contingent on an open Hormuz. The following Tuesday was the deadline for Iran to op

USO BOUNCES TO $126 AFTER A 10% PLUNGE: IS THIS A TRAP OR A GENUINE BOTTOM? USO edged up almost 2% today to $126.96, staging a desperate technical recovery after yesterday's violent, near-10% wipeout. The catalyst for the plunge? The geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window is rapidly nearing exhaustion. For weeks, the market priced in the worst-case supply disruption scenario. Now that diplomatic channels are showing signs of life, that fear premium is evaporating. But with massive macro headwinds looming and a heavy technical ceiling right above at $130, traders need to ask themselves a hard question: is this a stabilization point to buy, or just a dead cat bounce offering a better short entry? 1. THE EXHAUSTION OF THE "WAR PREMIUM" Retail traders love to buy oil

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise.There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant.I. Can

$GE Aerospace(GE)$ is scheduled to report its Q1 2026 earnings on Tuesday, April 21, 2026, at 7:30 AM ET. As a newly minted pure-play aerospace leader following the GE Vernova spin-off, this report is a major litmus test for its ability to maintain high margins and convert its massive backlog into realized profit. Earnings Estimates & Context Consensus EPS: $1.81 (Range: $1.59–$1.81 depending on the analyst pool). Consensus Revenue: ~$11.61 billion (Up ~18% year-over-year). FY 2026 Guidance: The company previously set a target of $7.10 – $7.40 EPS. Watch for any tightening or lifting of this range. History: GE has a strong history of "beats," with an average earnings surprise of around 14% over the last four quarters. GE Aerospace’s Q4 2025 earn

On the week of April 7, the latest Commitment of Traders (CFTC) data release from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission immediately ignited market discussions: stock index futures saw intensified multi-force tug-of-war, crude oil longs staged a strong comeback, while precious metals like gold saw funds quietly exiting. This isn't random volatility—it's a clear signal of big money "rotating tracks"! Want to know who's adding positions and who's retreating? Read this article, and you'll easily grasp the market's next rhythm.Commitment of Traders Report Basics: The "Three Keys" to CFTC DataThe CFTC Commitment of Traders report is like the market's "sentiment barometer," released every Friday with Tuesday's futures position data to reveal true capital intentions. No worries—w

Since April 9, developments between the United States and Iran have broadly followed a pattern of “ceasefire implementation and advancing negotiations, but fragile execution and unresolved disagreements.” After the two-week temporary ceasefire entered the implementation stage, the Strait of Hormuz nominally resumed limited shipping, yet the actual volume of vessel traffic remained extremely low, suggesting that maritime tensions had not genuinely eased. Then, on April 10 and 11, the United States and Iran held high-level talks in Islamabad, discussing sanctions arrangements, ceasefire boundaries, and navigation through the strait. Despite the lengthy discussions, however, no substantive breakthrough was achieved. From April 13 to 15, there were brief expectations that the ceasefire might b

This session focused on how the U.S.-Iran situation may affect oil, gold, U.S. stocks, the dollar, Treasuries, and crypto under different scenarios, with special attention to the key one- to three-week window ahead.Guest Speaker: Cheng Jun (CME Guest Lecturer with more than 10 years of margin trading experience, specializing in gold and FX trading through a combination of macro analysis and Demark technical analysis)Course Link1. The current market narrative is still primarily driven by changes in the geopolitical situationMost assets are still following the same pattern: they come under pressure when tensions rise and rebound whe

The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

The most closely watched development in the market over the weekend was undoubtedly the progress of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Based on comprehensive reports, while there has been some engagement, the core issues remain fundamentally unresolved. It has now been a full month since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz began, and crude oil inventories in Gulf nations are perilously close to reaching maximum capacity. If the U.S. and Iran fail to reach a viable agreement to guarantee safe passage through the strait within this two-week ceasefire window, the market is likely to further fuel long-term inflation fears. However, this turbulent environment is exactly what creates exceptional trading opportunities in the forward contracts of various commodities.

Hopefully a permanent resolution can be reached in the near future. This needs to end.

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

Just started so see how things go 

USO just clawed back 1.91% to $126.96, staging a technical recovery after yesterday's near-10% plunge as the geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window nears exhaustion. 😤 This snapback highlights oil's sensitivity to any sign of de-escalation, but the broader picture remains murky with OPEC+ production increase expectations looming and slowing global demand growth capping medium-term upside. $130 stands as the immediate resistance level that bulls must conquer to confirm sustained momentum. With the ceasefire providing temporary breathing room, the big question is whether this rebound stabilizes within the window or sets up another breakdown-driven move if talks falter. Emerging markets are watching closely, with Latin America's commodity flows pulling inflows 8% as

This week, ahead of the deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S. and Iran reached a temporary two-week ceasefire agreement on April 7, brokered by Pakistan. Under the agreement, Iran consented to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for controlled navigation and submitted a "10-Point Peace Proposal," which includes the lifting of sanctions, as a foundation for subsequent comprehensive negotiations. However, less than a day into the ceasefire, Israel launched a surprise attack on Lebanon, causing the situation to deteriorate rapidly. Before the ceasefire could even take effect, conflicts escalated. Iran reacted swiftly, declaring the Strait of Hormuz closed once again and threatening to consider withdrawing from the U.S.-Iran talks. Following this series of changes, the market's barely-

Last Week's Recap 1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13% Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices. Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses. Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target. Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119. Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses. GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially). Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March). Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6

In fact, the two week window of de-escalation in the conflict has long been priced into capital market movements. Although a week ago the US and Iran were still trading harsh rhetoric, with the US even threatening to destroy Iranian civilization, after all that saber-rattling you may have noticed that crude oil did not register a new high. Moreover, the US one-year inflation expectations – which typically spike along with crude oil – and the 10-year Treasury yield – which is most sensitive to US equity moves – remained remarkably calm：  $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion(TYO)$ $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$    In fact, the 10-yea

The most closely watched development over the weekend was the progress in talks between the United States and Iran. Based on the weekend news flow, there has been some progress, but the core issues remain unresolved. Since the Strait of Hormuz was blocked a month ago, Gulf countries’ crude inventories are also nearing full capacity. If, during this two-week ceasefire window, the United States and Iran still fail to reach a better agreement that ensures safe passage through the strait, the market is likely to further lift long-term inflation sentiment, creating trading opportunities in the forward contracts of many commodities.I. Focus on the Forward Crude Oil ContractWhen this round of oil price gains first began, the market initially believed the blockade of the strait would be only a sho

Breaking: The CBOE Volatility Index $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ closed below 20 on Thursday, signaling a notable compression in market volatility expectations. As of this writing, major U.S. equity indices have extended their winning streak to seven consecutive sessions, with $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ futures pointing higher again in pre-market trading Friday. According to $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ late-March data, years with gains exceeding 20% have outnumbered down years since 1980. Digging deeper: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ averages a 14% intra-year drawdown annually.

USO BOUNCES TO $126 AFTER A 10% PLUNGE: IS THIS A TRAP OR A GENUINE BOTTOM? USO edged up almost 2% today to $126.96, staging a desperate technical recovery after yesterday's violent, near-10% wipeout. The catalyst for the plunge? The geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window is rapidly nearing exhaustion. For weeks, the market priced in the worst-case supply disruption scenario. Now that diplomatic channels are showing signs of life, that fear premium is evaporating. But with massive macro headwinds looming and a heavy technical ceiling right above at $130, traders need to ask themselves a hard question: is this a stabilization point to buy, or just a dead cat bounce offering a better short entry?  1. THE EXHAUSTION OF THE "WAR PREMIUM"    Retail trade

USO BOUNCES TO $126 AFTER A 10% PLUNGE: IS THIS A TRAP OR A GENUINE BOTTOM? USO edged up almost 2% today to $126.96, staging a desperate technical recovery after yesterday's violent, near-10% wipeout. The catalyst for the plunge? The geopolitical risk premium tied to the U.S.-Iran ceasefire window is rapidly nearing exhaustion. For weeks, the market priced in the worst-case supply disruption scenario. Now that diplomatic channels are showing signs of life, that fear premium is evaporating. But with massive macro headwinds looming and a heavy technical ceiling right above at $130, traders need to ask themselves a hard question: is this a stabilization point to buy, or just a dead cat bounce offering a better short entry? 1. THE EXHAUSTION OF THE "WAR PREMIUM" Retail traders love to buy oil

U. S. President Donald Trump delivered a national televised address on the evening of April 1, unilaterally claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in military operations against Iran. He also stated that the U.S. will continue to heavily strike Iran over the next "two to three weeks," while negotiations with Iran are simultaneously proceeding. His remarks have utterly shattered the market's expectations that the "U.S.-Iran war" could end in the short term. Moreover, his approach of negotiating while launching military strikes strongly highlights an anxious state within the Trump administration: attempting to stabilize oil prices and inflation while being unable to conclude the war quickly, essentially being dragged down by Iran. The situation has clearly spiraled out of con