Weekly: Tensions Easing, Indexes Jump 3–5% Despite Hot Inflation & Weak GDP; Q1 Earnings Ahead

Last Week's Recap

1. U.S. Market Summary: Rally as Middle East tensions ease and oil plummets 13%

  • Stock surge – Major U.S. indexes jumped 3–5% on easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly drop in oil prices.

  • Two-week rebound – Nasdaq gained ~9%, S&P 500 ~7%, and Dow ~6%, erasing March losses.

  • Inflation hot – CPI hit 3.3% YoY, well above the Fed’s 2% target.

  • Oil plunges – Crude fell to ~$96/barrel (down 13% weekly) from a March 9 intraday peak near $119.

  • Gold rallies – Prices rose for a second straight week to ~$4,800/oz, recovering March losses.

  • GDP cut – Q4 growth revised down to 0.5% (from 0.7% in March and 1.4% initially).

  • Sentiment drops – UMich consumer sentiment fell to 47.6 in April (from 53.3 in March).

  • Earnings outlook – Q1 S&P 500 profit growth forecast lowered to 12.6% from 13.2%.

2. The US Sectors & Stocks - Tech and Energy Stocks Drive Market Gains

$S&P 500(.SPX)$: The S&P 500 index rose by 3.1% and closed at 6816.89 last week, driven by strong performances in the technology and semiconductor sectors.

Sectors: The semiconductor sector saw significant gains, with stocks like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ leading the charge due to robust demand for AI-related chips. Energy stocks, however, faced pressure from declining oil prices, impacting companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

10 Popular Stocks:

  • $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : +13.64% - Supported by its aggressive expansion in AI and data center investments, alongside strong growth in its chips business.

  • $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ : +9.31% - Driven by strong demand for AI-related chips and a favorable exchange rate.

  • $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ : +12.23% - Reflecting positive sentiment ahead of its expected revenue growth in Q1.

  • $Netflix(NFLX)$ : +4.1% - buoyed by expectations of a 15.82% revenue growth in Q1, driven by new monetization initiatives and advertising progress.

  • $Alibaba(BABA)$ : +4.33% - fueled by strong investor interest in Chinese tech equities and positive sentiment around its AI advancements.

  • $Aehr Test(AEHR)$ $ : +58.91%- Reflecting strong investor confidence following its Q3 financial results that exceeded expectations.

  • $Chevron(CVX)$ : -5.24% - Impacted by the drop in oil prices following geopolitical developments.

  • $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ : -5.09% - As the provisional ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran led to a sharp drop in oil prices.

  • $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ : +6.92% - Driven by strong demand for its data center services and AI infrastructure needs.

  • $Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ : +13.08% - Reflecting positive market reception to its operational scaling progress and record shipments.

3. Hong Kong Market - HSI surges 3.09% amid AI-driven tech rally

$HSI(HSI)$ jumped 3.09% to 25,893.54 and $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ added 3.87% to 4,860.26 on easing geopolitical tensions and AI infrastructure demand.

Sector Leaders: Info Tech Consulting (+32.6%), Semiconductors (+15.3%), and System Software (+16.8%) led on AI investment and record chip sales (+61.8% YoY).

Top 10 Performers:

  • $CH FRONTIER TEC(01661)$ : +179.31% – Surged on speculative buying in small-cap tech plays and AI-related theme momentum.

  • $CHINA FORTUNE(00110)$ : +97.44% – Rally driven by low-float volatility and potential restructuring optimism in the conglomerate’s asset portfolio.

  • $LEOCH INT'L(00842)$ : +86.79% – Skyrocketed after announcing termination of Leoch Energy Inc.'s planned U.S. spin-off, removing uncertainty over the overseas asset divestment .

  • $EDA GROUP HLDGS(02505)$ : +83.56% – Gained on annual results showing revenue up 17.58% YoY, with global warehouse expansion showing initial traction in Europe and Australia .

  • $HING LEE (HK)(00396)$ : +76.92% – Experienced volatile price swings amid thin trading and speculative interest in micro-cap industrials .

  • $DTXS SILK ROAD(00620)$ : +73.08% – Rose on cultural asset trading platform speculation and potential policy support for heritage digitization initiatives.

  • $CN CULTURE GP(00745)$ : +64.71% – Benefited from e-commerce and advertising segment recovery, alongside momentum in film production-related services.

  • $CHINA NEWCITY(01321)$ : +58.70% – Joined as a founding member of the Hong Kong RWA Global Industry Alliance, focusing on blockchain-based asset tokenization and cross-border ASEAN cooperation .

  • $MODERN CHI MED(01643)$ : +56.48% –Traditional Chinese medicine stocks attracted defensive capital; the stock hit record highs amid strong prescription drug sales data .

  • $DIAGENS-B(02526)$ : +51.52% – The "medical imaging large model platform first stock" continued its post-IPO rally, driven by its iMedImage® foundation model covering 19 imaging modalities and 469.8% YoY revenue growth

4. Singapore Market - STI gains 0.85% amid relief rally in tech and property sectors

$Solidion Technology Inc.(STI)$ : +0.85% to 4,989.41, a modest relief rally led by advertising (+20.14%) and semiconductor equipment (+19.17%) as easing Middle East tensions lifted regional sentiment, though gains were capped by selective positioning on property exposure.

Top Performers:

5. Australian Market - XJO gains 4.44% amid relief rally in tech and financials

$S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ : +4.44% to 8,960.6 on a broad-based relief rally led by consumer electronics (+42.45%) and Big Four banks as easing Middle East tensions and a 13% weekly oil price drop improved risk appetite.

Top Performers:

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors -Key Economic Data

  • Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad; oil/bond volatility continues

  • IMF: Updated global forecasts assessing Middle East conflict impact

  • U.S. Data: PPI (+4.6% YoY exp), Empire State & Philly Fed surveys, existing home sales, industrial production

  • Europe: Final March CPI (Spain, France, Italy, Eurozone), industrial production, ECB meeting minutes

  • China: Q1 GDP (+4.9% exp), retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment, March trade (+8% exports exp)

2. Earnings Spotlight: April 13–17

Financials dominate the calendar as Q1 bank results kick into high gear, alongside key semiconductor and consumer names.

Big Banks & Financials (Mon–Thu)

Tech & Semiconductors

Industrials & Consumer

What to Watch: Bank net interest margin pressure vs. investment banking recovery; TSM’s 2026 CapEx guidance for AI capacity; NFLX subscriber beat/miss after price hikes.

# Big Banks, Big Bar Too: Beat and Fade This Earnings Season?

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Comment16

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  • Shyon
    ·04-13 13:32
    TOP
    Last week felt like a relief rally to me, with U.S. markets rebounding strongly as tensions eased and oil prices dropped. While the price action looks bullish, I’m still cautious— inflation remains above target, growth was revised lower, and sentiment is weakening, which signals a mixed macro backdrop.

    I’m seeing AI and semiconductors continue to lead, with names like $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ and $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ benefiting from strong chip demand, while energy stocks lagged due to falling oil. This tells me the rally is more about rotation and sentiment rather than a broad-based recovery.

    Looking ahead, I’m focused on upcoming earnings, especially banks and key tech names. For me, it’s about whether results can support this rally—if not, volatility could return quickly.

    @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub @TigerObserver

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  • 北极篂
    ·04-14 06:35
    所以我自己的看法是:短期还能震,但不太像能一路单边上去。接下来关键看两点——一是银行财报,确认金融系统有没有压力;二是 TSMC (TSM) 和 Netflix (NFLX) 这些核心公司的指引。
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  • 北极篂
    ·04-14 06:35
    反过来看宏观数据,其实并不轻松。CPI还在3.3%,GDP被下修到0.5%,消费信心明显转弱,这说明需求端在降温。简单讲,现在更像“软着陆预期”在撑市场,但这个预期还没被验证。
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  • 北极篂
    ·04-14 06:34
    油价从接近119跌到96,本质上是地缘溢价回吐,这直接利好科技股估值,所以像 Amazon (AMZN)、ASML Holding (ASML)、TSMC (TSM) 这种AI链条就成了主线。但问题在于,这种上涨更多是“估值修复”,而不是盈利确认。
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  • 北极篂
    ·04-14 06:34
    这一周看下来,我反而觉得市场的核心不是“涨了多少”,而是“涨得有没有底气”。


    指数层面确实漂亮,S&P 500 (.SPX) 连涨、Nasdaq Composite 两周反弹接近9%,但背后其实是两个逻辑在拉扯:一边是油价大跌带来的情绪修复,另一边是通胀和增长同时走弱的现实压力。
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  • 玉全伶
    ·04-13 20:14
    在这一轮情绪修复行情中,期权市场上演了惊人的「末日轮」狂欢:一张 $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 看涨期权单日暴涨3763.64%,多张临近到期的期权合约涨幅超过3000%。
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  • 這是甚麼東西
    ·04-13 12:30
    Semiconductors: TSM 2026 CapEx Guidance
    This is the most critical macro signal for the optical sector. TSMC's (TSM) 2026 CapEx guidance serves as the ultimate proxy for AI capacity demand. If TSM raises its budget for advanced packaging (CoWoS) and 2nm nodes, it confirms that the physical infrastructure for AI is still scaling aggressively. Since every high-end GPU requires multiple high-speed optical connections, a bullish TSM outlook directly validates the "structural" multi-year investment theme for LITE and COHR.

    Netflix (NFLX) is the "canary in the coal mine" for consumer spending. A subscriber beat despite price hikes would prove that "premium" digital services remain shielded from inflation. While not directly linked to optical hardware, a strong NFLX print maintains the "Growth at Any Price" sentiment in the Nasdaq, preventing a broader tech sell-off that could otherwise drag down high-multiple stocks like Lumentum and Coherent during their pre-earnings run-up.

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  • 這是甚麼東西
    ·04-13 12:30
    Financials: NIM Pressure vs. IB Recovery
    The divergence in banking will be a key sentiment driver. Net Interest Margin (NIM) pressure from "higher-for-longer" rates is a headwind for traditional lending, but the Investment Banking (IB) recovery—driven by a surge in AI-related IPOs and M&A—could offset this. For optical module investors, a strong IB recovery signals that the capital markets are open for further high-tech expansion and strategic acquisitions, which has historically fueled the LITE and COHR growth stories.
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  • 北极篂
    ·04-14 06:35
    如果基本面接得住,这波反弹才有“第二腿”;否则,很容易又回到震荡甚至回撤。
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  • ECLC
    ·04-13 17:28
    Latest news matter in earnings season. Significant volatility remains as underlying risks persists.
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  • highhand
    ·04-13 12:41
    never ease. tonight bearish again. very tense now. can hear a pin drop in the room.
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  • Chinny92
    ·14 minutes ago

    Great article, would you like to share it?

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  • 云大烨
    ·04-14 18:53
    这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
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