Ceasefire or World War III? Tech Re-rating: Institutions Still Bullish on Memory Rally?
As news of a ceasefire in the U.S.-Iran conflict broke, major stocks rebounded across the board at today’s open, with the memory sector surging in particular. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $Roundhill Memory ETF(DRAM)$
But the market is now standing at an extreme crossroads.
On one side, Wall Street giants such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are collectively calling out: “A value opportunity in tech has emerged.” On the other, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio dropped a bombshell in his latest post: “We are in a world war that will not end anytime soon.”
Who’s right — value opportunity or global turmoil? ⚠️
Goldman’s view: Because the U.S.-Iran conflict briefly priced in higher inflation and higher-for-longer rates, tech stocks — as long-duration assets — were sold off excessively. The global IT sector’s PEG ratio has now fallen below its historical average, even reaching levels seen in the 2003–2005 post-dotcom bust trough. AI investment is now spilling over from the cloud into physical infrastructure, creating compelling defensive value opportunities.
Dalio’s warning: The ceasefire is only a temporary breather. In the macro backdrop of a world war, supply chains will continue to face decoupling risks. If the long-term diplomatic risks around the Strait of Hormuz are not resolved, any rally could be cut in half by another spike in energy prices.
Memory and HDDs: Not Just a Recovery, but a “Long-Term Upswing” 🚀
$CSOP Samsung Electronics Daily (2x) Leveraged Product(07747)$ just delivered a 1Q26 preview far above expectations.
Goldman noted that even with inventories at extremely low levels, the average selling prices (ASP) of DRAM and NAND surged 103% and 87% QoQ, respectively. The more important insight is this: this is not just a cyclical fluctuation — Samsung is now locking in elevated profits through long-term agreements (LTAs), and this kind of pricing power is unprecedented.
$Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$: Morgan Stanley has named it a Top Pick.
Even with the ceasefire, the exabyte-scale gap in data center storage capacity is unlikely to be filled before 2028. At present, the cost per GB of HDDs is still 10 times lower than NAND, and against the backdrop of exploding AI training data volumes, Seagate’s HAMR technology could drive margins toward 60%.
Goldman has sharply raised $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ target price to NT$2,750.
The key highlight is that although consumer electronics remain weak, demand for AI accelerators and AI-driven traditional servers is fully offsetting that softness. TSMC plans to invest $200 billion in capex from 2026 to 2028, implying that the AI growth curve it sees is far steeper than what most retail investors imagine.
💬 Your Turn
Q1: Do you think the ceasefire is durable enough to hold the risk-on rally?
Q2: Which of these names are you most interested in right now? Sandisk, Samsung, TSMC, Seagate
Q3: Are you adding exposure to semis / chip infrastructure here — or waiting?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
I’m most interested in $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ and $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ . TSMC is the clearest AI infrastructure play with strong visibility, while Seagate benefits from the growing need for low-cost data storage. Compared to that, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ and Samsung Electronics feel more tied to cyclical memory pricing.
I’m adding exposure selectively rather than going all-in. I still believe in the long-term AI-driven upcycle, but with macro uncertainty, I prefer scaling in and focusing on high-conviction names instead of chasing momentum.
@TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub
2. They’re all interesting including seagate and sand disk
3. A better investment play is to invest directly in Asian tech
Q1: Do you think the ceasefire is durable enough to hold the risk-on rally?
Q2: Which of these names are you most interested in right now? Sandisk, Samsung, TSMC, Seagate
Q3: Are you adding exposure to semis / chip infrastructure here — or waiting?
Q1: Do you think the ceasefire is durable enough to hold the risk-on rally?
Q2: Which of these names are you most interested in right now? Sandisk, Samsung, TSMC, Seagate
Q3: Are you adding exposure to semis / chip infrastructure here — or waiting?
The recent ceasefire has triggered a strong rally in risk assets, but its long-term durability remains a point of debate among analysts.
While markets have responded with a sharp "risk-on" rally, the ceasefire is widely viewed as fragile.
Based on recent performance and analyst commentary, Samsung and TSMC are drawing significant interest due to their central roles in the AI boom and their sensitivity to geopolitical de-escalation.
There is strong momentum to add exposure now, though some technical analysts suggest waiting for confirmed breakouts.
Adding heavy exposure to semiconductors at this exact moment carries high risk due to "overbought" technical indicators and the looming PCE inflation data. While the long-term structural tailwinds for chip infrastructure are intact, the current geopolitical uncertainty suggests waiting for a broader market pullback or a successful test of support levels. A "wait-and-see" approach for the next 24 to 48 hours allows for a clearer picture of whether the ceasefire holds and how the Federal Reserve might react to the latest inflation prints.
Among the listed names, TSMC and Samsung are the most compelling due to their central roles in the AI hardware value chain. TSMC remains the undisputed leader in advanced logic nodes (3nm/2nm), making it the primary beneficiary of any sustained semiconductor recovery. Samsung is attractive as a "catch-up" play in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for AI servers. Sandisk and Seagate, while important for storage, are more exposed to the slower-recovering cyclical PC and consumer electronics markets, making them less defensive in a volatile environment.
The ceasefire appears to be a temporary relief valve rather than a permanent solution, making it a shaky foundation for a long-term risk-on rally. While markets reacted positively to the initial news, reports of early violations suggest that "headline risk" remains high. Investors should treat this as a tactical window to re-evaluate portfolios rather than a signal that geopolitical volatility has vanished. If the truce breaks within the first 48 hours, yesterday's gains could be erased instantly.
I felt that the war had minimal impact, the stock market was waiting on any "good news" from the man in the white house, so it could start climbing. By the time the ceasefire was agreed, it felt like nothing too significant happened since everyone already was recovering.
I wonder if the ceasefire does not hold, and the reaction of the market, would there even be a big slide
The Hormuz chokehold will indeed not be going away any time soon, so what are we really rebounding so quickly for...
Goldman noted that even with inventories at extremely low levels, the average selling prices (ASP) of DRAM and NAND surged 103% and 87% QoQ, respectively. The more important insight is this: this is not just a cyclical fluctuation — Samsung is now locking in elevated profits through long-term agreements (LTAs), and this kind of pricing power is unprecedented.