SpaceX Countdown: The Biggest IPO in History! $135 Per Share, Worth It?
The countdown is on. As soon as next week (the market broadly expects around June 12), $Space Exploration Technologies Corp(SPCX)$ lists on the Nasdaq under the ticker $SPCX$. Priced at $135 per share, a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising $74.4 billion — instantly the largest IPO in history. Musk skipped the usual price range and simply named a number. If the stock pops in its first days, he could become the world's first trillionaire.
Just how big is this IPO?
- $135 a share, $1.77T valuation, $74.4B raised (ceiling up to $86B). That raise nearly exceeds the total of every US IPO of the past two years combined
- More than 40% above the company's own $1.25T self-valuation in February
- SpaceX rewrites prior record was Saudi Aramco in 2019: $1.7T valuation, raising over $29B.
- Musk controls ~50% economic stake (~$752B) plus over 85% of voting power (super-voting shares); he can't sell until certain operational targets are met
It's also a bellwether: Anthropic filed confidentially on Monday, OpenAI is expected within weeks, both valued near $1T. Three mega-listings could open the floodgates of wealth across Silicon Valley and Wall Street.
Why $1.77 trillion? Goldman is betting on AI growing 100x
Lead underwriter Goldman shared an aggressive model verbally with asset managers on the roadshow:
- AI revenue: $3.2B in 2025 → $322B in 2030, roughly 100x
- Total revenue: $18.7B last year (+33% YoY) → $474B in 2030
- AI ramp: +388% YoY to $15.6B in 2026, $34.5B in 2027
- Starlink at $144B in 2030, less than half of AI; launch business $4.1B → $8.3B
- EBITDA: $6.6B in 2025 → $352B in 2030; free cash flow expected to turn positive at $72B by 2031
The whole story rests on one assumption: xAI's total addressable market is a staggering $26.5T, far above the ~$2T combined for Starlink and space. In other words, this $1.77T isn't buying rockets — it's buying AI.
But it's a colossal cash-burn story
- Net loss of over $4.9B last year (a $791M profit in 2024), with the loss widening entirely on AI spending
- xAI lost $6.4B in 2025; Grok still trails Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google in code, security, agents, and conversational models, and paid subscriptions are nowhere near what the revenue needs
- The 300MW Colossus 1 supercomputer in Memphis runs underutilized as Grok monetization disappoints — Musk simply rented the compute to rival Anthropic
- Within two years of founding, Musk pushed out all 10 co-founders
- The cash burn is enormous: possibly $120B over this year and next, another $230B through 2030, ~$350B cumulatively over five years; free cash flow ran a $13.8B deficit last year
The optimists say it's claiming the next-gen AI gateway — AI data centers in orbit, a lunar factory, and ultimately humans on Mars. The cautious say it's a colossal cash-burn story that must be proven with real profit.
Discussion
Will you get on board next week?
The biggest IPO in history lists next week — will you buy $SPCX$ at the offering, or wait a few quarters of earnings first?
Goldman bets AI revenue grows 100x in five years, yet xAI is still deep in the red and Grok is behind — do you believe the story, or is it a valuation bubble?
Musk could become the world's first trillionaire on this — a faith premium worth paying, or risk that isn't priced in?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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- EBITDA: $6.6B in 2025 → $352B in 2030; free cash flow expected to turn positive at $72B by 2031
- Total revenue: $18.7B last year (+33% YoY) → $474B in 2030
- AI ramp: +388% YoY to $15.6B in 2026, $34.5B in 2027
The main concern for me is heavy cash burn and uncertain monetization timing, especially around xAI and AI expansion. Even if the total addressable market is huge, competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google makes execution uncertain. With free cash flow still negative, the risk-reward at IPO pricing feels stretched.
Personally, I would not chase the IPO on listing day. I’d prefer to wait for post-IPO volatility or clearer evidence of sustainable profitability. I’m not dismissing the long-term story, but at this level I see it as a high-risk narrative trade rather than a disciplined entry point.
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Instead, it seems that people are exiting their positions in Crypto and AI ( $Micron Technology(MU)$ , NBIS, NVDA,etc.) to rotate into Space themed companies.
I am taking the chance to add to companies like Micron and Alphabet during this dip, before the SpaceX profiteers start rushing back in.
I believe Elon is a visionary and true technopreneur, but it's a brutal world when politics and money come together.
SpaceX has real businesses: launch services, defence contracts, and Starlink. Unlike many hyped IPOs, it already generates substantial revenue. The question isn't whether it's a great company, but whether the valuation already assumes years of perfect execution.
The xAI angle is where I'm more cautious. AI revenue growing 100x sounds exciting, but Grok remains behind leading models, and profitability is still distant. Investors may be paying today for cash flows that are many years away.
My approach: if the IPO opens at a reasonable premium, I'd consider a starter position. If it surges 50-100% on day one, I'd rather wait for earnings and lock-up expiries.
SpaceX could eventually justify a massive valuation, but even exceptional companies can be poor investments if bought at an excessive price. The company is easier to believe in than the initial valuation. 🚀📈