SpaceX has real businesses: launch services, defence contracts, and Starlink. Unlike many hyped IPOs, it already generates substantial revenue. The question isn't whether it's a great company, but whether the valuation already assumes years of perfect execution.
The xAI angle is where I'm more cautious. AI revenue growing 100x sounds exciting, but Grok remains behind leading models, and profitability is still distant. Investors may be paying today for cash flows that are many years away.
My approach: if the IPO opens at a reasonable premium, I'd consider a starter position. If it surges 50-100% on day one, I'd rather wait for earnings and lock-up expiries.
SpaceX could eventually justify a massive valuation, but even exceptional companies can be poor investments if bought at an excessive price. The company is easier to believe in than the initial valuation. 🚀📈
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