SpaceX Finally Here! "Most Expensive IPO Ever": The Next Amazon or Tesla?
Tonight, the largest IPO in history begins trading on Nasdaq under the ticker $Space Exploration Technologies(SPCX)$.
The hype has reached a fever pitch. More than $250 billion in subscription funds have reportedly been locked up, with retail investors alone contributing over $70 billion. Allocation rates are expected to be only 20–30%, while more than 1,000 institutions competed for shares and international allocations accounted for less than 10% of the deal. With a greenshoe stabilization mechanism in place, most investors expect a strong debut rather than an IPO break.
The Most Expensive IPO in History
SpaceX generated roughly $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025. At a $1.77 trillion valuation, that implies a staggering 94x price-to-sales ratio. If the stock quickly reaches a $2 trillion valuation, that multiple rises to 107x sales.
In comparison:
P/S
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Saudi Aramco (2019 IPO): ~5x sales
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Google (2004 IPO): ~10x sales $Alphabet(GOOG)$
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Apple (1980 IPO): ~10x sales $Apple(AAPL)$
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Amazon (2009, when many called it expensive): ~2x sales $Amazon.com(AMZN)$
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Meta (2012 IPO): ~28x sales$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$
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NVIDIA (2023 peak AI frenzy): ~40x sales$NVIDIA(NVDA)$
Why Are Investors Willing to Pay So Much?
Wall Street is not valuing SpaceX as a rocket company.
Investors are effectively betting that today's
SpaceX = growth potential of early Amazon + manufacturing scale of Tesla + AI infrastructure exposure of NVIDIA
and the recurring cash-flow profile of a global telecom operator through Starlink.
To justify a $1.77 trillion valuation, some long-term models imply SpaceX would need to grow annual revenue from roughly $18.7 billion today to more than $1 trillion by 2035, requiring close to 50% annual compound growth for an entire decade.
That is an extraordinarily ambitious assumption. Amazon, Tesla, and NVIDIA all became legendary winners, but each also went through periods of extreme volatility that would have shaken out most investors long before the payoff arrived.
What Happens After the IPO? Index Inclusion.
Nasdaq-100, MSCI, and FTSE Russell are all expected to move quickly, while even the S&P 500 appears increasingly open to accelerating its timeline. That could create billions of dollars of passive buying demand.
On the other hand, lockup expirations remain a future overhang. Shares are expected to be released gradually over the months following the IPO, creating potential waves of selling pressure as early investors gain liquidity.
Bull Case: You're not buying a rocket company—you're buying the future of AI infrastructure, global connectivity, space transportation, and Starlink's recurring cash flows all in one stock.
Bear Case: At a $1.77 trillion valuation and 94x sales, the market may already be pricing in a decade of near-perfect execution before that success has actually been delivered.
Discussion
Are you bullish or bearish on SpaceX at current valuations?
Oppenheimer sees $190, while Morningstar sees $63. Which target do you believe?
Can SpaceX really compound revenue at roughly 50% annually for the next ten years?
Is this the next Amazon or Tesla—or the most expensive leap of faith Wall Street has ever taken?
Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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What keeps me from being bearish is that SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. Starlink’s recurring revenue, combined with dominant launch capabilities and potential future space infrastructure, gives it multi-industry optionality. If those engines scale as expected, the premium valuation can make sense over time—but it also assumes multiple big bets all work out simultaneously.
Overall, I’m bullish long term but skeptical of the current price fully reflecting execution risk. I see more room for volatility than steady compounding in the short run & I’d lean closer to the more conservative valuation targets.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
The massive divergence between Oppenheimer’s $190 target and Morningstar’s $63 fair value estimate highlights a fundamental disagreement over how to classify the company.
In the near term, Oppenheimer’s momentum narrative wins due to massive institutional backstops and index buying. Over a 3-to-5-year horizon, however, Morningstar's gravity applies. The current price requires investors to fully "pre-pay" for a decade of flawless execution.
I think this is the most expensive leap of faith that the Wall Street has taken and most are forced to take it as the various index fund managers buy it. This feels like FOMO where many buy the latest hype of town.
I think the next one year will give clarity. There is no need to rush into it now. I wouldn’t be suprised that the price will drop to sound the $60-70. That might be a good and safe entry point just to gain exposure to a speculative future.
Oppenheimer's target price of USD190 vs Morningstar USD 63 are 2 extreme polar opposites.
Oppenheimer is pricing SpaceX as an un-bypassable space monopoly & has a trailing 133x price to sales multiple. It assumes that deep space exploration, Mars colony infrastructure & rocket travel will perfectly monetise on a clean timeline, completely ignoring the huge USD 4.94 billion net loss last year.
In contrast Morningstar has priced SpaceX as a capital intensive utility with a 33x trailing multiple.
I believe Morningstar's target price is more realistic. Yet investing in SpaceX is taking a leap of faith into the future with no certainty that it will succeed in its endeavours.
Ultimately it comes down to each individual's risk appetite.
@Tiger_comments
The bull case is that SpaceX becomes a global infrastructure company, combining launch, satellite internet, and potentially logistics. In that scenario, 50% annual growth for several years could justify today's valuation.
The bear case is that expectations have run far ahead of execution. Even a great company can be a poor investment if growth merely meets, rather than exceeds, lofty forecasts.
My view: SpaceX may become the next Amazon, but at current prices investors are already paying for that possibility. The company is extraordinary. The valuation leaves much less room for error.
Hoping this triad of SpaceX/ Starlink/ X.AI pans out to be more substance than hype ... time will tell.