$Lennar(LEN)$ Strong payrolls are usually viewed as bad news for rate cuts, but I'm not convinced that's entirely bearish for Lennar.
Housing depends on two things:
1. Mortgage rates
2. Employment
A strong jobs market means people still have income and confidence to buy homes. That's a positive.
The concern is that strong payrolls may keep the Fed cautious, resulting in higher mortgage rates for longer.
I'm watching:
🏠 New home orders
🏠 Mortgage applications
🏠 Cancellation rates
🏠 Gross margins
If rates stabilize rather than continue rising, builders like Lennar could surprise to the upside.
My take:
The market may be too focused on Fed cuts and not focused enough on the resilience of the US consumer.
Do you think housing is more driven by mortgage rates or employment strength today?
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