$Lennar(LEN)$ Strong payrolls are usually viewed as bad news for rate cuts, but I'm not convinced that's entirely bearish for Lennar. Housing depends on two things: 1. Mortgage rates 2. Employment A strong jobs market means people still have income and confidence to buy homes. That's a positive. The concern is that strong payrolls may keep the Fed cautious, resulting in higher mortgage rates for longer. I'm watching: 🏠 New home orders 🏠 Mortgage applications 🏠 Cancellation rates 🏠 Gross margins If rates stabilize rather than continue rising, builders like Lennar could surprise to the upside. My take: The market may be too focused on Fed cuts and not focused enough on the resilience of the US consumer. Do you think housing is more driven by mortgag
$Adobe(ADBE)$ I believe GenAI is more of a monetization engine than a moat killer for Adobe. Many people assumed AI image generation would replace Photoshop. Instead, Adobe integrated AI directly into its products and monetized it through Firefly credits and premium features. Adobe's biggest advantage isn't just creating images. It's the entire workflow: - Photoshop - Illustrator - Premiere Pro - Acrobat - Enterprise distribution Most professionals and companies still need reliability, copyright protection and workflow integration. The real risk is not AI itself. The risk is if Adobe cannot innovate as fast as newer AI-native competitors. My view: ✅ AI increases user productivity ✅ AI creates new revenue streams ✅ Adobe's ecosystem remains s
$Oracle(ORCL)$ I think the market is focusing on the wrong metric. A 363% increase in RPO is extraordinary. Customers don't commit to multi-year contracts unless they genuinely need the capacity. To me, this suggests AI demand remains stronger than supply. The concern is whether Oracle is spending too aggressively on data centers and GPUs. That's a valid risk, but if management executes well, today's spending could become tomorrow's moat. What I'm watching: 🔹 RPO growth 🔹 Cloud revenue growth 🔹 Operating margin trend 🔹 AI infrastructure utilization The biggest winners of the AI boom won't necessarily be the companies building the models. They may be the companies providing the infrastructure, power and cloud capacity behind them. My takeaway
My view: the bottom is likely in for quality AI semiconductor names, but I'm less certain for SOXL. The recent rebound wasn't just short covering. We're seeing continued evidence that hyperscalers (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google and Oracle) are still increasing AI infrastructure spending. Oracle's massive RPO growth is another signal that AI demand remains strong. That said, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF. Even if my long-term thesis is bullish, timing matters. A 10% pullback in semis can become a 30% drawdown in SOXL very quickly. Personally, I'd rather own NVDA, Broadcom, TSMC or SMH than hold SOXL for the long term. Bull case: ✅ AI capex keeps accelerating ✅ Fed remains supportive ✅ Data center demand continues to surprise Bear case: ❌ Higher-for-longer rates ❌ AI spending disappoints ❌ Va
My take: I won't be buying SpaceX on Day 1. SpaceX is undoubtedly the highest-quality space company globally, but IPO Day 1 is often when retail investors pay the highest valuation. History shows that even great companies can be poor investments if bought at excessive prices. I'm more interested in: 🚀 RKLB – already benefiting from increased space spending and launch demand. 🛰️ IRDM – direct beneficiary if satellite connectivity continues growing. 🛡️ XAR – defense and aerospace exposure with less single-company risk. If SpaceX IPOs at a reasonable valuation and shows continued growth in Starlink, launch services, and defense contracts, I'd rather wait for the first major pullback than chase the opening hype.