To The Moon

Last Week's Recap

1. Weekly Market Digest: Defensive Rotation, Value Crushes Growth, PCE Hot, Oil Slides

• Defensive market — Semis sold off as defensives outperformed; $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunged 4.6%, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 500 -2.0%, while $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ eked out +0.6%.

• Value tops growth — Growth index fell 3.2% while value rose 0.2%, widening YTD outperformance to 14.4% vs. growth's 0.1%.

• Price pressures — May PCE inflation at 4.1% annual rate (highest in 3+ years), in line with expectations; core PCE 3.4%.

• GDP upgrade — Q1 GDP revised up to 2.1% (from 1.6%), as lower imports offset weaker consumer spending.

• Bitcoin decline — BTC briefly fell below $59,000 Thursday (lowest since September 2024), recovering to ~$60,000 Friday; well below the $82,000 May peak and $126,000 record.

• Oil slick — U.S. crude tumbled ~9% to ~$69 (lowest in ~4 months) as Middle East tensions eased, though still up ~20% YTD.

• Sentiment rebound — Michigan sentiment rose to final June 49.5 (from May's 44.8), snapping a 3-month decline; long-run inflation expectations fell to 3.3% from 3.9%.

• Jobs ahead — June jobs report due Thursday ahead of the holiday weekend; May added 172,000 jobs, beating consensus for the third straight month.

  

2. US Market – SPX flat at 7,354.02 as pharma surge offsets tech and SpaceX IPO carnage

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ dipped 0.05% and closed at 7,354.02, as a massive rally in pharma giants offset sharp declines in semiconductor, tech, and the SpaceX IPO. The index held above the 7,300 level despite violent rotation out of AI hardware into defensive healthcare.

Industry leaders: Housewares & Specialties (+17.04%), CRO Concept (+12.44%), Tires & Rubber (+10.48%).

10 Popular Stocks:

• $AbbVie(ABBV)$ +17.03% — Surged on its $10.9 billion Apogee Therapeutics acquisition, deepening its immunology portfolio. Trades at $253.35, YTD +10.88%.

• $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$ +11.5% — Rallied to $254.66; YTD +23.05%, 1-year +71.71%. Guggenheim Buy, target raised to $270.

• $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ +9.97% — Extended GLP-1 momentum on Mounjaro/Zepbound demand.

• $Oracle(ORCL)$ -19.4% — Collapsed after Q4 earnings. Beat estimates ($2.11 EPS vs $1.96) but plunged on weak Q1 guidance and a $20B fundraise for AI data centers; FCF not expected positive until 2029.

• $SpaceX(SPCX)$ -17.17% — The $75B IPO (largest ever, priced at $135 on June 12) crashed from $225.64 peak to $153.23. Fell 16.43% on June 22 after a $20B bond offering revealed post-IPO xAI merger debt. Market cap $2.02T, float only 4-5%. Analyst target $187.80.

• $Broadcom(AVGO)$ -11.26% — Slid to $365.02. UBS Buy, target trimmed to $485. Concerns over ~80x P/E and rumored $18B OpenAI deal.

• $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ -8.33% — Declined on AI search integration concerns and ad revenue softness.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ -8.62% — Tumbled on profit-taking and rotation out of high-beta AI names.

• $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ -7% — Pulled back to $1,762.77 despite BofA Buy with target raised to $2,345. Trades at 60x P/E, YTD +64.99%.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3. Hong Kong Market – HSI plunges 5.24% as tech and mining carnage wipes out prior gains

$HSI(HSI)$: The Hang Seng Index collapsed 5.24% and closed at 22,671.86, as a brutal selloff swept through internet giants, miners, and EV names. The index broke below the 23,000 support level for the first time in weeks.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ tumbled 7.57% and closed at 4,255.59, with nearly every constituent in the red as profit-taking and margin calls accelerated across the China tech complex.

Industry leaders: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (+17.80%) surged on refining margin expansion and crack spread strength. Life Sciences Tools & Services (+8.60%) advanced on CRO/CDMO outsourcing demand. Pharmaceutical Outsourcing (+8.07%) tracked biotech R&D spending resilience.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $PHARMARON(03759)$ +12.98% — The CRO/CDMO provider bucked the rout, rallying on global biotech outsourcing demand and resilient order-book growth.

• $SMIC(00981)$ +4.58% — The mainland foundry advanced on domestic AI chip demand and tech-decoupling proxy positioning, one of the few tech names to escape the carnage.

• $ICBC(01398)$ -3.36% — The state-owned lender declined on financial-sector rotation and property-sector credit exposure concerns.

• $CNOOC(00883)$ -6.79% — The offshore oil specialist tumbled alongside Brent crude weakness and energy complex profit-taking.

• $ABC(01288)$ -6% — The state-owned lender fell on NIM compression fears and broader financial-sector selling.

• $TENCENT(00700)$ -6.45% — The internet giant slumped on gaming and fintech valuation compression, with margin calls amplifying the decline.

• $BYD COMPANY(01211)$ -10.14% — The EV giant collapsed on EU tariff escalation fears and domestic price-war margin pressure.

• $XIAOMI-WR(81810)$ -12.02% — The consumer electronics and EV player tumbled on EV delivery-margin concerns and supply-chain profit-taking.

• $BABA-W(09988)$ -13.13% — The tech conglomerate was hammered on platform-economy profit-taking, e-commerce margin fears, and regulatory overhang.

• $ZIJIN MINING(02899)$ -14.4% — The gold and copper mining giant was the week's worst performer, collapsing as gold prices retreated sharply and copper inventories showed unexpected builds, triggering leveraged stop-loss selling.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4. Singapore Market – STI flat at 5,191.73 as local defensives offset ASEAN/China SDR rout

The $Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ dipped 0.02% and closed at 5,191.73, as strength in Singapore Airlines, Sembcorp, Singtel and the SMIC SDR offset a brutal selloff in Thai, Indonesian and Greater China depositary receipts.

Sectors: Specialized Consumer Services (+10.53%) led on travel and lifestyle demand. Interactive Home Entertainment (+9.76%) advanced on gaming and streaming momentum. Semiconductors (+5.53%) tracked global AI chip tailwinds.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $SIA(C6L.SI)$ +5.08% — The national carrier rallied on resilient international passenger demand and cargo yield stability.

• $SMIC HK SDR 5to1(HSMD.SI)$ +5.56% — The Chinese foundry's SDR advanced on domestic AI chip demand and tech-decoupling proxy positioning.

• $Sembcorp Ind(U96.SI)$ +2.2% — The utilities provider gained on energy transition tailwinds and urban solutions momentum.

• $Singtel 10(Z77.SI)$ +2.07% — The 10-share board lot variant edged up alongside the main board.

• $Singtel(Z74.SI)$ +1.84% — The telecom incumbent rose modestly on defensive yield positioning.

• $Delta TH SDR 1to1(TDED.SI)$ -10.28% — The Thai power-electronics SDR collapsed on profit-taking after its recent AI data-center power-supply rally.

• $BBCA ID SDR 1to2(IBKD.SI)$ -8.11% — The Indonesian private bank's SDR slumped on thin-liquidity volatility and regional financial-sector rotation.

• $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ -12.81% — The consumer electronics and EV player's SDR tumbled on China EV supply-chain margin concerns.

• $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ -14.37% — The Chinese tech giant's SDR was the week's worst performer, collapsing on Hang Seng Tech weakness and e-commerce margin fears.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

5. Australian Market – XJO slips 0.73% as miners and lithium collapse offset consumer staples strength

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ declined 0.73% to 8,764.2, as a brutal selloff in miners and lithium producers offset strong gains in consumer staples, gaming, and building materials.

Sectors: Construction Materials (+7.97%), Diversified Real Estate Activities (+7.76%), Specialized Consumer Services (+7.26%).

10 Popular Stocks:

• $JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES-CDI(JHX.AU)$ +8.73% — Surged on North American housing demand recovery and fibre cement pricing power.

• $ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LTD(ALL.AU)$ +6.81% — Advanced on resilient casino capex and digital gaming momentum.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ +5.81% — Climbed on Bunnings and Kmart trading strength.

• $WOOLWORTHS GROUP LTD(WOW.AU)$ +5.01% — Rose on defensive positioning and resilient grocery demand.

• $AMCOR PLC-CDI(AMC.AU)$ +5.08% — Gained on consumer staples resilience and sustainability packaging partnerships.

• $Rio Tinto Ltd(RIO.AU)$ -2.1% — Declined on Pilbara iron ore shipment concerns and copper profit-taking.

• $FORTESCUE LTD(FMG.AU)$ -3.44% — Fell on China property-sector weakness and falling 62% Fe prices.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ -3.93% — Pulled back as copper profit-taking intensified and iron ore faced Chinese steel-demand headwinds.

• $SOUTH32 LTD(S32.AU)$ -5.33% — Slumped on manganese and aluminum price weakness.

• $PLS Group Ltd(PLS.AU)$ -14.29% — Collapsed on lithium oversupply fears and plunging carbonate prices as Chinese EV demand slowed.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead

1. Macro Factors:June 29-July 3

Tuesday

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index

Consumer Confidence Index – The Conference Board

Wednesday

ADP National Employment Report

ISM Manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management)

Construction Spending – U.S. Census Bureau

Thursday

Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate – U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Factory Orders – U.S. Census Bureau

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims – U.S. Department of Labor

Friday

U.S. financial markets close early pre-holiday ahead of Independence Day