To The Moon

The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible.

Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect reminder that next to Japan and Korea, the leadership and the structural solidity of US equities remain unshakeable. It also confirms once again that so long as the US equity standard stays aloft, panic in any other market cannot trigger a genuine collapse.

$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$ $纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$ $NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco(QQQM)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $SP500指数主连 2609(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2609(MESmain)$ $NQ100指数主连 2609(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2609(MNQmain)$

Beyond the resilience on the technical side, the news flow has also skewed positive. Over the weekend Trump's stance on Iran turned sharply once more, and crude opened deeply lower on Monday — evidence that the Middle East theme is unlikely to trouble risk appetite. On monetary policy, Warsh likewise produced nothing beyond what the market had already priced, and we continue to lean towards the view that any actual US rate hike will not arrive until late in the year — the fourth quarter at the earliest.

With these forces pulling together, it may still be too early to call a resumption of the uptrend, but the momentum behind further downside has clearly slowed in a meaningful way. From here we need only watch the other two major indices: should they go on printing fresh record highs, the Nasdaq catching up — and the laggard closing the gap — becomes only a matter of time.

In Asian markets, the Nikkei — our key gauge — fell slightly through 62,000, yet still bounced near the more critical 60,000 level. If it can hold that footing this month, then the worst case becomes a recovery rally and a second attempt at the highs. Also worth noting: the yen met forceful FX intervention between the end of last week and the start of this one. It has broken the downtrend line that has been in place since the first quarter of 2025, and the odds of another sharp slide in the short to medium term are receding. That may work to cap the upside momentum in Japanese equities. We therefore lean towards the view that Japanese stocks may be unable to sustain the strength they carried earlier this year, and settle into the second tier.

$微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $黄金主连 2608(GCmain)$

$1盎司黄金主连 2608(1OZmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $白银主连 2609(SImain)$ $迷你白银主连 2609(QImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$

The weakest of the group is naturally Korea. It too defended the important 5,000 handle and left a long lower shadow on the weekly candle, but a market this dependent on liquidity and leverage is itself a large source of uncertainty. Even if Korean equities can push higher again, we expect the probability of a fresh high to be low — or for the move to form a large-degree bull trap. Over the medium to long term, Korea is a market to be sold into strength.

With US equities stabilising, we are cancelling our earlier low-side resting orders this week and waiting for fresh opportunities to appear across the various markets. Gold, which we flagged last week, remains in a low-level range following the roll into the new front contract, and may require more patience before a breakout arrives.

On strategy: the long euro futures position was filled at 1.1420. With last week's move now underway, we are raising the stop to 1.1370. Targets are unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420 (half at each).

In crude, the long at 70 was filled and the order set is now complete. Average long entry: 75. The rebound was strong but never reached the first target, and we still see range-trading in the near term. We are therefore keeping the existing plan for now, with a possible stop-raise later. The stop currently sits at 60, with targets at 95 and 115 (half at each).

$WTI原油主连 2609(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2609(MCLmain)$ $小原油主连 2609(QMmain)$

Cancelling the low-side Nasdaq bid.

No new resting orders this week — the priority is to wait patiently for a trade with the right risk/reward.

P.S. If a trade reaches its first target, the stop is automatically moved to the entry level. Any adjustment after a fill will be updated in a subsequent article