The key variable is probably how much supply actually reaches the market, not simply that shares become eligible for sale.
If SpaceX delivers strong results, retail investors may chase the earnings momentum. However, insiders and employees often have concentrated wealth tied to their employer. Even if they remain bullish, many will diversify once the lock-up permits it. That does not necessarily signal a lack of confidence.
A roughly US$100 billion unlock is substantial. Even if only a small fraction is sold, it could temporarily outweigh incremental retail demand and create volatility.
The sequence to watch is:
Strong results + light insider selling: Bullish, suggesting confidence and limited supply pressure.
Strong results + heavy insider selling: Stock could struggle despite good fundamentals because supply dominates in the short term.
Weak results + significant selling: The most challenging combination, as sentiment and supply work in the same direction.
For Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile, the recent rally likely reflects improving sentiment toward the space sector. Whether that continues will depend more on each company's execution than on SpaceX's lock-up. A large post-unlock pullback in SpaceX could weigh on sector sentiment temporarily, but it would not necessarily change the long-term fundamentals of its peers.
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