In the very short term, sellers usually move first.
The earnings report removed one uncertainty, but Thursday's lock-up expiry introduces a more immediate one: potential supply. Not every insider will sell, but markets often price in the possibility before knowing the actual amount.
Three scenarios are worth watching:
Bullish: Insider selling is limited, demand absorbs the new shares, and the post-earnings drop becomes a buying opportunity. That would signal strong institutional conviction.
Base case: Initial selling creates volatility for several sessions before the stock finds equilibrium as the market digests the additional float.
Bearish: Heavy insider sales reinforce concerns over elevated AI capex and valuation, triggering further profit-taking.
The Nvidia purchase commitment is a double-edged sword. It raises near-term capital expenditure, but if that spending translates into higher-margin Starlink, defence, or AI services revenue over the next few years, investors may ultimately view it as productive investment rather than excessive spending.
The key metric on Thursday is not simply whether insiders sell. It is whether buyers are willing to absorb that supply without a sharp price decline. If the stock holds up despite a large increase in tradable shares, that is often a stronger signal than the earnings beat itself.
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