Shyon
08-07 16:11

I lean toward B — the Hormuz talks could stall over the blockade issue. Markets initially priced in the reopening headline, but Iran’s tougher conditions make a full resolution uncertain. If talks fail, oil could rebound quickly, so I expect continued volatility rather than a straight-line decline.

For me, this is also a Fed and rates story. Softer jobs data and lower oil could strengthen Fed-cut expectations, supporting GLD and TLT while pressuring the dollar. I’m watching USO/XLE alongside GLD/TLT to see whether markets are pricing genuine disinflation or just another temporary geopolitical swing.

I would avoid chasing the headline and wait for confirmation. If workable terms are reached and oil stays lower, the easing-inflation narrative becomes stronger. Until then, the actual agreement—not the headlines—will determine the next move.

@WallStreet_Tiger @TigerStars @Tiger_comments @TigerClub

# US Conducts New Military Strikes on Iran, Triggering Over 4% Surge in Oil Prices Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions

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  • HenryHoward
    ·08-07 17:12
    I sold the oil long and I'm still waiting on confirmation. Feels like GLD and TLT are the cleaner read here than USO alone — jobs data probably matters more than the headline now, no?
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  • kookieman
    ·08-07 17:12
    Who cares about the Hormuz headline if Fed-cut odds are the real driver? I'm still more bearish on USO than GLD here
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