NVDA& CBRS: Which One You Prefer?
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ vs $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is far cheaper but is it a better bet today?
For now, yes.
But let's see where $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ can get to when it's through this early IPO period.
Firstly, $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ valuation was insane. It came in with an IPO that was 20x oversubscribed and then hit ~90x FY26 revenue estimates on day 1.
With the stock now trading ~$52B on $900M in FY26 numbers...the valuation is still insane at ~57x 2026 forecasts.
But we're also trading at ~17.9x 2027 forecasts.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ on the other hand trades ~13.5x FY27 but also trades ~9.4x FY28 sales (on far less forecasted growth than $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$).
This puts $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ as likely a very good bet if we can pull back to ~$30-35B MC over the next few weeks/months imo.
At $30B MC that would mean we'd be trading ~10.3x FY27 sales with growth forecasts +230%.
To me, that feels like it's a safer place to counter the current risks with $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ like:
1. Ongoing usage
2. RPO conversion
3. Margin expansion
Those 3 are a bit more unknown today and given the valuation vs $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ today I don't see why $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ is the better pick TODAY.
Whether we get to $30B or not is a different question but I hope we do.
It definitely seems like $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ is sitting at the core of inference which is where the real economic value is concentrated right now.
It's one of those situations where I just can't make sense of the valuation today...but I hope we pull back because $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ does seem like an incredible bet at a certain valuation.
For now, prefer $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.
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