MU Still Has to be One of the More Mispriced Stocks in the Market
$Micron Technology(MU)$ still has to be one of the more mispriced stocks in the market especially after Davidson just raised their PT to $3,000. Here's some key points on $Micron Technology(MU)$: 1. Keep saying it's cyclical all you want. It's still not. -> 87% gross margins are not a sign of a "cyclical" stock. -> $33B worth of FCF (61% margins) + cash position covering a further buildout is not a sign either. 2. If EPS doesn't grow from Q1 forecast...we're looking at $153 in EPS in FY27 which means the stock trades at 7x EPS. -> For reference the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ now trades ~21x EPS. 3. 87% gr
EWZ is Far More Than An "Anti-AI Market" like JP Morgan are Calling it
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Brazil $iShares MSCI Brazil ETF(EWZ)$ is far more than an "anti-AI market" like JP Morgan are calling it. It wins in an AI bull market and as a hedge against an AI bull market. People are massively underestimating how physical the AI buildout is. And people are also massively underestimating how much renewable energy, graphite, and rare earths Brazil has for this AI buildout. Bullish AI -> Bullish Brazil. Renewables: $EBR Rare Earths: $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$ Broader: $Vale SA(VALE)$ / $Pet
This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August. My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B. This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting: -> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B. -> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx). -> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT. -> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV. Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030. Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.
I think $Grab Holdings(GRAB)$ has ~2x potential from here to FY29/FY30 but not much higher. Relative to the upside potential for other names...it's good but slightly less exciting. I forecast ~$8B in revenue in FY29 which at 19% net margins gives us $1.52B in net income and $0.37 in EPS (4.1B outstanding shares). ~20x EPS estimate which I think is fair given $Uber(UBER)$ ~18x, but with the potential of the financial services platform (combined with the SEA risk) 20x EPS on $0.37 gives you $7.40 (130% gain). Fwiw, I think a recovery play like $Snap Inc(SNAP)$ actually has more upside (but with more risk). Solid but p
Yield Narrative Takes a Back Seat: QQQ Hits New Highs
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! It really does seem like the yield narrative has taken a back seat now as the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ hits a new high today. I've been saying for the past 2 months that: 1. The macro isn't as bad as doomers suggest. 2. The forecasts we're seeing in AI CapEx and the capital flowing to the supply chains from that CapEx will trump an elevated 10Y yield. And now here we are: -> $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ at ATHs -> Crypto breaking out with $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ and $Robinhood(HOOD)$ moving 22% and
I think today's a good day to remind you that the unfathomable forecasts we're seeing from the biggest technological revolution of all time overpower whatever macro guess you decide to make. 10-Y yields are high yes but $iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF(HYG)$ is holding up fine. Also a reminder that $Applied Optoelectronics(AAOI)$ is close to an inflection point where the r/r makes complete sense for the buyer at ~1.3x FY28 sales. A reminder that robotics and space themes are going nowhere. Robotics still needs: -> A 300x increase in actuation & bearings... $RBC Bearings(RBC)$ &
Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! Right... $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ is undervalued at $86. -> CEO says Europe is ~50% of the entire global transplant opportunity (currently only generating ~$20M of revenue in Europe). -> CEO forecasts 30,000 transplants by 2032 generating $2 billion in revenue (18% CAGR for 6 years). -> Director buying $110k worth of shares. -> CEO regularly bought in the +$100 range. -> 2H 2027 is the year revenue starts to get generated from kidneys and Europe. I forecast we hit $2B in revenue in 2032 (18% CAGR from here) which is in line with management commentary if some of the above goes right. At 40% EBITDA margins that's $800M in EBITDA (or 31% CAGR from
The High Risk, High Reward Bets in the Market I See Right Now Are
The high risk, high reward bets in the market I see right now are: - $USA Rare Earth Inc.(USAR)$: A higher risk play on mineral security being a form of national security. - $Aeva Technologies Inc.(AEVA)$: A bet on whether it can become a material CPO/NPO optical source player as well as a bet on 4D LiDAR. - $Snap Inc(SNAP)$: My bull case model gives us a $40 stock (6.8x from here). A lot needs to go right to get there. - $Aurora Innovation(AUR)$: Pure execution bet on the industrialization of Volvo, AUMOVIO, and PACCAR. -