BULL CASE FOR NBIS
This William Blair $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ ARR forecast of $71.7B is just below my absolute base case of $72.8B I laid out in August.
My bull case has an ARR ~30% higher than this at $93.6B.
This is where the valuation starts to get quite exciting:
-> EBITDA margins will end up closer to 60% so we'll have an EBITDA forecast of $56.2B.
-> A base case EBITDA multiple of ~16x (on 152% CAGR) gives us a $900B EV (extreme as doesn't model in CapEx).
-> Use an EBIT approach with 30% margins which gives us $28.1B in EBIT.
-> A base case EBIT multiple in the 20-24x range gives us $617B EV.
Either way... I think we end up +$500B EV by 2030.
Granted we'll have to deal with some chop along the way.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
