7 Wins, 2 Invalidations and One Choppy Market
The stock market closed muted this week. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ finished flat (+0.1%) following an intra-week pullback that exceeded our bearish target of 7,642. By Thursday, weak economic data (ADP) and dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller (who noted he would support holding interest rates steady this month if incoming inflation numbers remain favorable) sparked a relief rally. However, as I highlighted last night in my daily note, key structural elements warranted skepticism regarding continuation for today.
To avoid premature moves, I rely on daily levels to validate each thesis. For today, 7,730 served as the anticipated central daily level (CDL) dictating bullish or bearish momentum. Once price broke below that level, it pushed directly into the confluence of the 7,704 daily level and the 7,707 central weekly level, where the index found support. Anyway the weekly structure lost momentum as we will analyze in the paid content.
Among the high-probability setups:
Every Saturday I post the strongest setups combining technical analysis and modeled support and resistance levels. These are the results for this week:
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🎯 $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ reached 108 (+4% move).
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🎯 $SpaceX(SPCX)$ reached 149 (+5.6% move).
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🎯 $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ validated the bearish thesis by breaking 555 and moving toward 538 (-2% move); indecisive price action on the 4H and daily timeframes on Tuesday signaled a reversal was coming.
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🎯 $Apple(AAPL)$ reached the extended bullish target of 330.5 (+3.5% move), after which the level triggered an institutional algorithmic rejection with precision.
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🎯 $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ reached our bearish target of 292 and extended the move to 289 (-1.7% move).
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🎯 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ breached the bearish target of 762.5, securing a -1% move.
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🎯 $Netflix(NFLX)$ reached 83.1 (+1.7%).
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❌ $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ opened the week above 159, invalidating the bearish thesis.
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❌ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : The central weekly level of 263 provided capital protection on Monday morning during regular market hours; price moved toward the bearish target of 250 before bouncing to fill the gap.
That represents 7 successful setups versus 2 invalidations for the week. The combination of technical indicators shared transparently in the Weekly Compass, paired with our modeled levels based on price action, multi-timeframe confluence, and key support and resistance zones, continues to prove effective even in choppy markets.
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