Apple Event Countdown: What Is the Market Really Watching in the New CEO’s First Test?
Apple’s most important product event of the year is now just around the corner.
The company will hold its fall special event on September 9. This will also be the first major product launch under John Ternus since he took over as CEO on September 1.
So this time, the market may be looking at much more than just “what’s new in the next iPhone.”
There are four things that really matter:
Foldables, AI, pricing, and whether Apple can restart a new upgrade cycle.
1. A foldable iPhone could be the biggest variable
The market currently expects Apple to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and potentially its first foldable iPhone.
If that happens, the significance is not simply that Apple is finally entering the foldable market.
The bigger question is:
Can Apple turn an existing form factor into a new premium upgrade cycle?
Foldable phones are no longer a new concept. Samsung, Huawei and other brands have already been in the market for years.
So Apple now needs to prove that it can once again take an existing category and redefine the user experience.
For Apple, this matters because smartphones are finding it increasingly difficult to drive upgrades through cameras, chip performance and other incremental hardware improvements.
If a foldable iPhone can successfully open up a new ultra-premium segment, the upside may come not only from unit sales, but also from a higher ASP and stronger profit potential.
So the first thing the market needs to watch is:
Will the foldable iPhone become a real new category, or just another niche premium product?
2. The real battle Apple cannot afford to lose is still AI
Hardware is John Ternus’ strongest area.
But the biggest concern surrounding Apple right now is not hardware.
It is AI.
Apple has already introduced the next generation of Siri AI, and the next step is to prove whether those capabilities can move from product demos into real user demand.
Apple is different from OpenAI, Google and Meta.
It may not need to own the most powerful foundation model.
Its real advantage is its massive installed base of devices and users.
If more AI workloads eventually move onto personal devices, the iPhone itself could become Apple’s most important AI distribution channel.
So this event is not just about benchmark scores or chip upgrades.
The real question is:
Can AI finally become a reason for users to buy a new iPhone?
If the answer is still no, Apple may find it difficult to close the valuation gap created by concerns over its AI progress.
3. Another increasingly important question: Will Apple keep raising prices?
There is another variable in this product cycle that used to receive far less attention:
Memory prices.
AI servers are consuming more high-performance memory capacity, while smartphone makers are facing higher DRAM and NAND costs.
This creates a very direct problem for Apple.
More capable on-device AI requires more memory.
At the same time, AI infrastructure demand is also pushing memory prices higher.
In other words:
AI is increasing the memory requirements of the iPhone while also making memory itself more expensive.
Add rising advanced-node chip costs, and Apple is facing greater hardware cost pressure.
That leaves the company with a simple but difficult choice:
Raise prices,
or absorb part of the cost pressure itself.
If Apple raises prices, upgrade demand could weaken.
If it does not, margins could come under pressure.
That means this year, “how much does the new iPhone cost?” may matter just as much as “what features does it have?”
4. For investors, this event is really a valuation test for Apple
Apple is entering this new chapter at a market value of roughly $4.5 trillion.
But under Ternus, the market will likely demand more than stability.
It will want to see growth.
This event effectively needs to answer three questions:
Can foldables create a new hardware cycle?
Can AI meaningfully boost iPhone upgrade demand?
Can Apple protect margins as supply-chain costs rise?
If all three begin to move in a positive direction, the market may not just be trading the iPhone 18 cycle.
It may be trading Apple’s next growth cycle.
Related Stocks
Apple core
Watch: new product demand, foldables, AI-driven upgrades and pricing.
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Memory
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Watch: rising smartphone memory costs while AI servers continue to compete for high-performance memory capacity.
AI ecosystem
$Alphabet(GOOGL)$
$Meta Platforms(META)$
$Microsoft(MSFT)$
Watch: whether Apple can turn its device ecosystem into a meaningful AI distribution advantage.
Today’s Poll
What are you watching most closely at Apple’s upcoming event?
① The first foldable iPhone — can it start a new upgrade cycle?
② Siri AI — can Apple finally catch up in AI?
③ Will the new iPhone get more expensive?
④ Supply-chain opportunities — more focused on MU / TSM
For me, this event is more interesting than any single hardware upgrade.
Because this is the new CEO’s first major test.
What Apple really needs to prove is not whether it can still build a better iPhone.
It is:
After reaching a $4.5 trillion valuation, where does the next growth story come from?
For market discussion only. This is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, and investment decisions should be made carefully.
What are you most interested in at this Apple launch event?(Single choice)Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
For investors, pricing may be one of the most important signals from Apple’s event.
Apple is facing higher costs for memory, advanced chips and components needed for on-device AI. That creates a difficult choice: raise prices to protect margins, or absorb higher costs and accept pressure on profitability.
The key question is whether Apple can convince consumers that the upgrade is worth paying more for.
If AI features, hardware improvements and premium models are compelling enough, Apple could lift its average selling price without significantly hurting demand. That would support both revenue and margins.
But if prices rise while the improvements feel incremental, consumers may delay upgrading.
A price increase without a major demand slowdown could be a strong signal that Apple is entering its next growth cycle.
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