The biggest risk for Apple is not a weak product launch, but expectations that are already too high. With AAPL up nearly 20% YTD, investors may have already priced in a major AI upgrade, the foldable iPhone, and a strong first impression from John Ternus. If Apple simply delivers what the market expects, profit-taking could easily trigger a classic “Sell the News” reaction.
However, I would not interpret a short-term pullback as a bearish signal. The real question is whether the new products can create a stronger upgrade cycle. A surprisingly aggressive foldable price, better-than-expected shipment targets, or genuinely useful Apple Intelligence features could quickly change sentiment.
So my base case is short-term volatility and consolidation, followed by a potential upside move if fundamentals exceed expectations. I would rather see AAPL digest the event than chase a pre-event rally.
@TigerEvents [龇牙]
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