I think a 25bp hike is possible, but holding first could give the Fed more time to see whether inflation and oil prices stay high.
Inflation is still too high.
Oil above $100 could push inflation higher.
But hiking too quickly could hurt economic growth and jobs.
50bp would be too aggressive in my view.
If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest?
AI & high-growth tech stocks
Why? Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Expensive growth stocks usually feel this pressure more quickly.
Simple rule:
Rates up→ Treasury yields up → Growth/AI stocks down.
Bottom line: Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, oil and inflation closely. These three could decide the next big market move.
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