To The Moon

On Thursday $Oracle(ORCL)$ closed 5.38 per cent lower at US$152.94, and only then reported. Its remaining performance obligations stand at US$664 billion, up from US$638 billion at the end of the previous quarter, a record. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.58 per cent lower the same day, its fourth session in a row heading down and the longest such run since June. The order book set a record. The fall came before it. That US$664 billion is work signed, not money collected. To get the work done, Oracle's capital expenditure ran to about US$28.5 billion in the quarter against US$8.5 billion a year earlier; free cash flow came in at minus US$5.4 billion; and in the same fiscal qua

Most institutions' publication date is either late August or early September, after Kevin Warsh's speech but before PPI data is released. After yesterday's PPI exceeded expectations and oil price broke through 100, the actual market pricing has become much more aggressive than most institutions base cases. The probability of interest rate futures 76% interest rate hike has changed "September interest rate hike" from one scenario to a near-certainty.

Introduction: Markets Hold Firm as Rate Sensitivity Rises From August 31 to September 4, U.S. stocks moved as investors weighed geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, volatile global bond yields and a stronger jobs report. SPY gained 0.41% for the week, suggesting that risk appetite remained intact. However, market swings grew sharper. On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1%. As a result, Treasury yields and the dollar climbed, prompting investors to price in a greater chance of further Fed tightening. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609

On Wednesday $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, its third session in a row heading down. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ rose 6.55 per cent the same day to close at US$653.69. The whole market was backing away while one of the largest companies in it put on six and a half points, and those look like two unrelated things. They are one thing. What is holding the indexes down is rates: Brent crude moved back above US$100 for the first time in two months, the inflation print lands on Friday, the ten-year Treasury yield was pushed to 4.85 per cent and the thirty-year broke above 5.30 per cent. The Treasury stepped in that day and raised the cap on its buybacks of ten-

When the U.S. Department of the Treasury scales up its debt buyback program to $6 billion, textbook bond market mechanics suggest that direct price support should elevate Treasury security prices and drive yields down. However, financial markets frequently experience a counterintuitive surge in long-term yields following such announcements. In this article, we would like to share our comprehensive macro-structural analysis explaining why long yields rise despite direct liquidity injections. The central thesis demonstrates that Treasury buybacks operate as microstructural operations — focused primarily on market liquidity, off-the-run security adjustments, and cash management—rather than aggregate macroeconomic quantitative easing (QE). When structural macro forces dominate, long-term bond

The recent spike in oil prices following Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities has injected fresh inflation fears into the market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.8% and weighing on broad equities like the S&P and Dow. While the U.S. Treasury's expanded $6 billion 10-to-20-year buyback operation aims to bolster bond market liquidity and curb sharp yield spikes, buybacks do not equate to quantitative easing or reduce fundamental deficit expansion. Because the $6 billion figure came in below higher Wall Street expectations of up to $10 billion, long yields initially surged higher rather than lower as markets priced in persistent fiscal and energy cost pressures. Investors should avoid aggressively buying long bonds purely on buyback headlines—as technical intervention alo

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ To be honest, the escalating tariff banter between USA and Canada is getting ridiculous, with president Trump naming Lake Ontario to Lake America in a bid to deal a sucker punch to Canada. Like seriously, this is increasingly looking like a high school affair, such childish behavior. There are more pressing issues like the conflict with Iran which he created in the first place, curbing rising inflation pressures and maintaining good trading/political ties with the rest of the world, which Trump administration already threw out of the window. I am not sure how long this bottleneck of pressure could hold, but I do know once its breaks, it is going

The substantial beat in August payrolls (162k vs. 56k expected) showcases economic resilience, but muted market reactions highlight that wage growth—slowing to 3.1% YoY—remains the key driver keeping rate-hike odds largely anchored and shifting focus directly to the upcoming CPI data. While mega-cap tech faces pressure as duration assets lose favor in a higher-for-longer yield environment (10-year up to 4.79%), the strong labor market acts as a fundamental economic floor rather than an immediate catalyst for aggressive tightening. Investors should adopt a balanced approach: rebalancing away from overextended mega-caps to lock in gains ahead of inflation readings, while selectively adding exposure to small-caps and value cyclical stocks (like the Russell 2000) that stand to benefit from bro

Strong payrolls (162k vs. 56k estimate) failed to spike rate-hike bets significantly because wage growth slowed to 3.1% YoY, taking the immediate heat off wage-push inflation and shifting all eyes toward next week's CPI data for true price direction. Although long-duration tech assets like Microsoft (-2.04%) took a minor hit as 10-year yields ticked up 3 bps to 4.79%, the broader economic durability actually provided a floor for value and small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 +0.25%). Consequently, while trimming stretched mega-cap tech into CPI is a sensible risk-hedging tactic, the fundamentally resilient labor market suggests a strong buffer against any severe market crash.

We saw how despite a massive Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report that tripled consensus forecasts, futures markets pricing for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike barely budged In this article, we seek to analyze the structural drivers behind this muted repricing. We demonstrate that institutional investors have transitioned from a labor-centric framework to an inflation-dominated evaluation model. While labor tightness creates medium-term inflationary potential, short-term Fed policy is currently anchored by real interest rate management, inflation expectations, and sticky core service price dynamics—exemplified by recent hawkish guidance from Federal Reserve leadership emphasizing a strict commitment to the 2.0% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation goal. 1. The September Paradox:

All three indexes closed lower on Friday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.38 per cent at 7,718.60, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 0.51 per cent and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.29 per cent. On the same day $Micron Technology(MU)$ closed 6.10 per cent higher at US$1,016.59, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ 11.90 per cent higher at US$1,740.00, $SK hynix(SKHY)$ 8.14 per cent higher at US$177.00, and $Direxion D

US stocks posted modest weekly gains for a 2nd straight week, but finished lower on Fri, 04 Sep 2026 - after a much hotter-than-expected August jobs report revived expectations of a Fed rate hike later in September. On Friday: DJIA declined -0.51% to close at 53,414.25, ending lower at -0.09% for the week. S&P 500 decreased -0.38% to 7,718.60, but managed a slight weekly gain of +0.27%. Nasdaq fell -0.29% on Friday to 26,506.99, locking in a weekly gain of +0.56%. Key Market Drivers. Top 3 catalysts for the week were: Memory & chip stocks performed strongly (led by names like $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $Western Digital(WDC)$ & $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$), whil

I would not trim mega-caps solely because payrolls beat. The 162,000 jobs and +55,000 revisions clearly weaken the slowdown narrative, but wage growth easing to 3.1% YoY keeps this from being an unequivocally hawkish report. The more interesting signal is the muted market reaction. If such a large payroll surprise only nudges yields and rate expectations, investors may already be looking past employment towards CPI. Strong growth can support earnings, but high-duration mega-caps remain vulnerable if inflation forces yields another leg higher. For me, CPI is the deciding catalyst. A benign print could turn strong payrolls into a soft-landing positive. A hot print would create the more dangerous combination: resilient growth, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates. I would hold quality

The week ending September 4, 2026, provided a textbook example of headline-driven volatility compressing into macro-level consolidation. Early in the week, markets digested dovish commentary from key central bank figures, sparking a sharp risk-on rally that pushed equity indices toward near-term resistance. However, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report introduced a mixed structural picture—showing labor market cooling alongside persistent wage sticky points—causing the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 to yield earlier gains and close down 0.38% at 7,718.60. When an index finishes nearly flat despite sharp intragroup and intraday swings, it indicates that buying demand and liquidating pressure are in equilibrium near current valuation multiples. Market

$WMT 20260904 99.0 PUT$ what's wrong with $Wal-Mart(WMT)$  

$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ sharing for coins 

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Good morning readers. So the latest job number is optimistic, with more jobs created as compared to market estimates. However, if you do a deep dive, most of the jobs are generated by the private sector, casting a shadow of optimism and hope. As quoted in the first article, this is no hiring boom.  So will this drum up the pressure for the fed to increase rates on top of accelerating inflation rates? Lets see how this plays out.[Bless]   @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

I would trust the hold, but I am not ready to call peak rates yet. Waller has taken some pressure off, but he has not closed the door on another hike. Payrolls around the +56k consensus with wage growth easing to 3.0% would strengthen the case that the Fed can afford to wait. A much stronger jobs print, especially with hotter wages, could quickly revive the hawkish trade. More importantly, Waller himself has made August inflation the key test. So for now: September hold > hike, but peak rates still need confirmation from CPI. I would rather miss the first leg of a rally than price in the end of tightening too early.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 1.06 per cent higher at 7,747.71 and $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ added more than 600 points, the best day for both in a month, and the reason was a sentence from Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor. He said on Thursday that he is willing to support holding rates steady in September as long as inflation keeps moving towards 2 per cent. Bets on a September hike fell from above 60 per cent to a little over half, and the ten-year Treasury yield came back to around 4.75 per cent, a day after touching its highest in more than two years. Waller's reason for holding was to give disinflation a chance: "We can wait one meeting." In the same remarks he left

On Wednesday $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.48 per cent lower, its third session in a row heading down. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ rose 6.55 per cent the same day to close at US$653.69. The whole market was backing away while one of the largest companies in it put on six and a half points, and those look like two unrelated things. They are one thing. What is holding the indexes down is rates: Brent crude moved back above US$100 for the first time in two months, the inflation print lands on Friday, the ten-year Treasury yield was pushed to 4.85 per cent and the thirty-year broke above 5.30 per cent. The Treasury stepped in that day and raised the cap on its buybacks of ten-

On Thursday $Oracle(ORCL)$ closed 5.38 per cent lower at US$152.94, and only then reported. Its remaining performance obligations stand at US$664 billion, up from US$638 billion at the end of the previous quarter, a record. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.58 per cent lower the same day, its fourth session in a row heading down and the longest such run since June. The order book set a record. The fall came before it. That US$664 billion is work signed, not money collected. To get the work done, Oracle's capital expenditure ran to about US$28.5 billion in the quarter against US$8.5 billion a year earlier; free cash flow came in at minus US$5.4 billion; and in the same fiscal qua

Introduction: Markets Hold Firm as Rate Sensitivity Rises From August 31 to September 4, U.S. stocks moved as investors weighed geopolitical risks, higher oil prices, volatile global bond yields and a stronger jobs report. SPY gained 0.41% for the week, suggesting that risk appetite remained intact. However, market swings grew sharper. On September 4, August nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000, well above forecasts, while unemployment held at 4.1%. As a result, Treasury yields and the dollar climbed, prompting investors to price in a greater chance of further Fed tightening. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2609

When the U.S. Department of the Treasury scales up its debt buyback program to $6 billion, textbook bond market mechanics suggest that direct price support should elevate Treasury security prices and drive yields down. However, financial markets frequently experience a counterintuitive surge in long-term yields following such announcements. In this article, we would like to share our comprehensive macro-structural analysis explaining why long yields rise despite direct liquidity injections. The central thesis demonstrates that Treasury buybacks operate as microstructural operations — focused primarily on market liquidity, off-the-run security adjustments, and cash management—rather than aggregate macroeconomic quantitative easing (QE). When structural macro forces dominate, long-term bond

Macro Strategy Weekly China’s Rebounding Energy Demand Is Pushing Global Yields Higher: What Is the Best Options Strategy for Navigating a Range-Bound Market? Weekly Strategy Summary The key focus for markets this week is not to make a directional bet on any single asset. Rather, it is to monitor how the yen, crude oil, global bond yields, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities establish new inter-market linkages. The key takeaways from this week’s report are as follows. $Japanese Yen - main 2609(JPYmain)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2610(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2610(QMmain)$

Most institutions' publication date is either late August or early September, after Kevin Warsh's speech but before PPI data is released. After yesterday's PPI exceeded expectations and oil price broke through 100, the actual market pricing has become much more aggressive than most institutions base cases. The probability of interest rate futures 76% interest rate hike has changed "September interest rate hike" from one scenario to a near-certainty.

US stocks posted modest weekly gains for a 2nd straight week, but finished lower on Fri, 04 Sep 2026 - after a much hotter-than-expected August jobs report revived expectations of a Fed rate hike later in September. On Friday: DJIA declined -0.51% to close at 53,414.25, ending lower at -0.09% for the week. S&P 500 decreased -0.38% to 7,718.60, but managed a slight weekly gain of +0.27%. Nasdaq fell -0.29% on Friday to 26,506.99, locking in a weekly gain of +0.56%. Key Market Drivers. Top 3 catalysts for the week were: Memory & chip stocks performed strongly (led by names like $Micron Technology(MU)$ , $Western Digital(WDC)$ & $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$), whil

We saw how despite a massive Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report that tripled consensus forecasts, futures markets pricing for a 25-basis-point interest rate hike barely budged In this article, we seek to analyze the structural drivers behind this muted repricing. We demonstrate that institutional investors have transitioned from a labor-centric framework to an inflation-dominated evaluation model. While labor tightness creates medium-term inflationary potential, short-term Fed policy is currently anchored by real interest rate management, inflation expectations, and sticky core service price dynamics—exemplified by recent hawkish guidance from Federal Reserve leadership emphasizing a strict commitment to the 2.0% Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation goal. 1. The September Paradox:

The recent spike in oil prices following Houthi strikes on Saudi energy facilities has injected fresh inflation fears into the market, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield toward 4.8% and weighing on broad equities like the S&P and Dow. While the U.S. Treasury's expanded $6 billion 10-to-20-year buyback operation aims to bolster bond market liquidity and curb sharp yield spikes, buybacks do not equate to quantitative easing or reduce fundamental deficit expansion. Because the $6 billion figure came in below higher Wall Street expectations of up to $10 billion, long yields initially surged higher rather than lower as markets priced in persistent fiscal and energy cost pressures. Investors should avoid aggressively buying long bonds purely on buyback headlines—as technical intervention alo

All three indexes closed lower on Friday, $S&P 500(.SPX)$ down 0.38 per cent at 7,718.60, $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ down 0.51 per cent and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite down 0.29 per cent. On the same day $Micron Technology(MU)$ closed 6.10 per cent higher at US$1,016.59, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ 11.90 per cent higher at US$1,740.00, $SK hynix(SKHY)$ 8.14 per cent higher at US$177.00, and $Direxion D

The week ending September 4, 2026, provided a textbook example of headline-driven volatility compressing into macro-level consolidation. Early in the week, markets digested dovish commentary from key central bank figures, sparking a sharp risk-on rally that pushed equity indices toward near-term resistance. However, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report introduced a mixed structural picture—showing labor market cooling alongside persistent wage sticky points—causing the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ S&P 500 to yield earlier gains and close down 0.38% at 7,718.60. When an index finishes nearly flat despite sharp intragroup and intraday swings, it indicates that buying demand and liquidating pressure are in equilibrium near current valuation multiples. Market

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.‌ To be honest, the escalating tariff banter between USA and Canada is getting ridiculous, with president Trump naming Lake Ontario to Lake America in a bid to deal a sucker punch to Canada. Like seriously, this is increasingly looking like a high school affair, such childish behavior. There are more pressing issues like the conflict with Iran which he created in the first place, curbing rising inflation pressures and maintaining good trading/political ties with the rest of the world, which Trump administration already threw out of the window. I am not sure how long this bottleneck of pressure could hold, but I do know once its breaks, it is going

The substantial beat in August payrolls (162k vs. 56k expected) showcases economic resilience, but muted market reactions highlight that wage growth—slowing to 3.1% YoY—remains the key driver keeping rate-hike odds largely anchored and shifting focus directly to the upcoming CPI data. While mega-cap tech faces pressure as duration assets lose favor in a higher-for-longer yield environment (10-year up to 4.79%), the strong labor market acts as a fundamental economic floor rather than an immediate catalyst for aggressive tightening. Investors should adopt a balanced approach: rebalancing away from overextended mega-caps to lock in gains ahead of inflation readings, while selectively adding exposure to small-caps and value cyclical stocks (like the Russell 2000) that stand to benefit from bro

Strong payrolls (162k vs. 56k estimate) failed to spike rate-hike bets significantly because wage growth slowed to 3.1% YoY, taking the immediate heat off wage-push inflation and shifting all eyes toward next week's CPI data for true price direction. Although long-duration tech assets like Microsoft (-2.04%) took a minor hit as 10-year yields ticked up 3 bps to 4.79%, the broader economic durability actually provided a floor for value and small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 +0.25%). Consequently, while trimming stretched mega-cap tech into CPI is a sensible risk-hedging tactic, the fundamentally resilient labor market suggests a strong buffer against any severe market crash.

I would not trim mega-caps solely because payrolls beat. The 162,000 jobs and +55,000 revisions clearly weaken the slowdown narrative, but wage growth easing to 3.1% YoY keeps this from being an unequivocally hawkish report. The more interesting signal is the muted market reaction. If such a large payroll surprise only nudges yields and rate expectations, investors may already be looking past employment towards CPI. Strong growth can support earnings, but high-duration mega-caps remain vulnerable if inflation forces yields another leg higher. For me, CPI is the deciding catalyst. A benign print could turn strong payrolls into a soft-landing positive. A hot print would create the more dangerous combination: resilient growth, sticky inflation and higher-for-longer rates. I would hold quality

Disclaimer: Nothing I say or post should be considered financial advice. Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Good morning readers. So the latest job number is optimistic, with more jobs created as compared to market estimates. However, if you do a deep dive, most of the jobs are generated by the private sector, casting a shadow of optimism and hope. As quoted in the first article, this is no hiring boom.  So will this drum up the pressure for the fed to increase rates on top of accelerating inflation rates? Lets see how this plays out.[Bless]   @PawsAndProfits - Specialist in combining FA and TA for Options selling and Swing trading.[666]  

$WMT 20260904 99.0 PUT$ what's wrong with $Wal-Mart(WMT)$  

$IREN Ltd(IREN)$ sharing for coins 

One batch of results, three different share prices. $Dell Technologies Inc.(DELL)$ closed 15.81 per cent higher on Wednesday at US$492.20. Credo's revenue more than doubled from the previous quarter and the stock closed down 20.04 per cent at US$165.22. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ left its answer until after the close, beat on both revenue and earnings, and saw its shares push above US$370 before being knocked back below US$350. The hardest number in Dell's results is US$95 billion — a record order backlog for AI servers. It raised full-year revenue guidance by US$25 billion to US$192 billion at the same time. At least 15 firms moved their targets that day: UBS from US$455 to US$500,

Fed Chair - Kevin Warsh. On Fri, 28 Aug 2026 at the US central bank‘s annual economic policy symposium at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, new Fed chair Kevin Warsh spoke on his 100th day as Chairman. This was a much-awaited speech as the new Fed chair has unilaterally decided to adopt a less interactive, significantly scaled-back approach to how the central bank communicates with the public and financial markets. Rather than maintaining the highly talkative, guiding role of his predecessors, Warsh has initiated a "quiet revolution" aimed at restoring mystery and removing the market's over-reliance on the central bank. He has even suggested scaling back the number of FOMC meetings to six from eight. This is still a discussion-in-progress. Jackson Hole, Wyoming Speech. At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh us