To The Moon

With the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike now underway, there is no turning back once the arrow has left the bow. The tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the near term; it may not reverse until a major economic event emerges—such as a recession or a substantial equity-market decline. Accordingly, trading during this period should become more cautious. Should the pace of tightening accelerate, market volatility is likely to increase as well. Over the weekend, I held an in-person discussion with Tiger users in Hong Kong. Based on my U.S. dollar cycle model, this round of Fed tightening is a landmark event signaling that the dollar cycle has entered a new phase. Given widening interest-rate differentials, we may subsequently face an environment of accelerated U.S. dollar appreciation.

For my view: B. Wait for confirmation I would not chase the rally after only one strong day. Why? ₿ Bitcoin rising can quickly lift COIN, MSTR and HOOD. AMD/AMAT rising shows semiconductor recovery, but it needs to continue. High-beta stocks can rise very fast — but they can also fall very fast. One good day does not prove a new bull trend. What I want to see: High-beta stocks keep rising for several sessions. Trading volume stays strong. More sectors participate, not only crypto and semiconductors. S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to hold their gains. Simple rule: One strong day = signal. Several strong days + broad participation = stronger confirmation. Bottom line: B — Wait, then buy selectively instead of chasing.

The S&P 500 barely moved on Friday, gaining just 0.17%, but some of the market's most volatile stocks staged a much bigger rally. Coinbase jumped nearly 12%, Strategy surged over 16%, and Robinhood climbed more than 9% as Bitcoin rebounded. Semiconductor stocks also extended their recovery, with AMD and Applied Materials moving higher. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ <

🇸🇬 My Singapore Portfolio: Simple, Boring… and Designed for Cash Flow When I started looking at my Singapore portfolio, I realised that I did not need to own dozens of stocks. Sometimes, a simple portfolio of companies that I understand can be much easier to manage. My Singapore holdings currently include Keppel, Keppel REIT and OCBC Bank. From my screenshot, my total Singapore market value is around S$4,273, while the portfolio is showing an overall unrealised gain of about S$1,641. That is the important lesson for me: I am not only looking for stocks that can go up quickly. I also want companies that can potentially provide cash flow, dividends and long-term capital growth. 🐶 This is my “cash-boost” mindset. Instead of asking only: “How much can this stock go up?” I also ask: “Can this i

A flat tape on triple witching does not tell me much by itself. Expiry flows, dealer hedging and rebalancing can keep the headline index unusually quiet even while there is significant movement underneath. What stands out more is the divergence: semiconductors gained nearly 3%, while several megacaps weakened. That suggests money was rotating within the market rather than simply moving into or out of equities as a whole. I would therefore pay more attention to whether semiconductor strength and broader participation continue after the expiry-related flows disappear. If they do, Friday's divergence becomes more meaningful. If everything snaps back next week, much of it was probably positioning noise around triple witching.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ edged higher on Monday morning (21 September), rising around 0.4% as of 9:45am SGT. Amplifying the move,  $HSTECH 7xLongSG271216(SYHW.SI)$  rose around 2%, while $HSTECH 7xShortSG270309(9B2W.SI)$ declined a similar magnitude. The index rebounded from the 4,250 level last week after successfully retesting this support zone for the second time this year. Holding above this level will be critical to sustaining further upside momentum. In the U.S., $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ futures also traded higher after breaking above the 30,000 level, gaining approximately 0.6%. This lifted the

My view: B. Hold — wait for more data I think a 25bp hike is possible, but holding first could give the Fed more time to see whether inflation and oil prices stay high. Inflation is still too high. Oil above $100 could push inflation higher. But hiking too quickly could hurt economic growth and jobs. 50bp would be too aggressive in my view. If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest? AI & high-growth tech stocks Why? Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Expensive growth stocks usually feel this pressure more quickly. Simple rule: Rates up→ Treasury yields up → Growth/AI stocks down. Bottom line: Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, oil and inflation closely. These three could decide the next big market move.

almost everything rallied... Except $Netflix(NFLX)$ . Luckily I shorted, the more it falls, the more I gain

🌟🌟🌟The global financial markets are currently running on a mix of high octane relief, massive macro bets and the sheer refusal to let reality ruin a good party. Following the US Federal Reserve's unanimous 25 basis point interest rate hike, Wall Street pulled off a spectacular post hike reversal.  The tech heavy Nasdaq surged and the broader markets cheered.  For a Singaporean investor looking at the Straits Times Index (STI), this macro turbulence dictates the exact temperature of our local market. Here is exactly what the market is betting on, how the global gears are grinding and what it means for fresh capital in Singapore. What is Driving the Rally? The rally was sparked by the US 10 year Treasury yields slipping back below the psychological 5% line right after the announcem

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The answer was A. After weeks and days anticipating the increase, the verdict is out and markets have also reacted strongly. The FED was unanimous of its decision and its the first step to further increases. As of 18 September 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose another 2.8%, its fourth consecutive gain, and finally broke above its 50-day moving average after that level had acted as resistance since July. The backdrop is still unusually volatile, the SOX had fallen about 21% in July, so some of what we are seeing is recovery from a major drawdown rather than a fresh move from a stable base. Next to watch : Micron earnings on 30 Sep

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

A. Treasury yields keep falling. The post-Fed rally looks encouraging, especially with semiconductors leading, but I think yields are the key confirmation signal. If the 10-year can move sustainably below 5%, valuation pressure on growth and tech stocks should ease and give the rally more room. For now, I see this more as a rebound that still needs confirmation rather than the start of a clear new rally. Oil and the Fed remain important because either could push yields higher again.

C. everything else is news used to justify stock market movement

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Still bullish overall. JH and MZ continues to push the AI and chip narrative.

Expected should be ok. Actually I like interest rate high a bit

C. 💻 Tech and semiconductors stay strong Brent fell 2.7% to $105.83 after Saudi Arabia began moving more crude through Oman, partially relieving the immediate supply squeeze. Hormuz traffic, however, remains extremely depressed. The post-Fed market is stabilising: global equities rebounded as Treasury yields retreated and Brent eased to $104.82, although both borrowing costs and energy remain restrictive. The important investment message is that the macro shock has eased slightly,e no hard evidence of AI infrastructure demand rolling over. $Broadcom(AVGO)$ just reported perhaps the strongest confirmation: Q3 AI semiconductor revenue was +221% YoY and +54% QoQ, with Q4 AI semiconductor revenue guided to +236% YoY. Q3 FCF was $13.7B, or 46% of r

For my view: C. Tech & semiconductors stay strong I see this as more likely a short-term rebound first, not yet proof of a new strong rally. Why? 10-year yield below 5% → helps growth stocks. Oil falling → reduces inflation pressure. AI/chips strong → brings investors back to NVDA, AMD, MU, INTC. But the Fed is still hawkish, with rates at 3.75%–4.00%. If the 10-year yield goes back above 5%, tech stocks could face pressure again. What I would watch: Yield ↓ + Oil ↓ + AI earnings ↑ = rally has a better chance to continue. If only tech rebounds for a few days while yields rise again, it may be just a relief rally. Bottom line:  I would not chase aggressively yet. Watch Treasury yields and AI/chip strength first.

A. 📉 Treasury yields keep falling I’d pick A — but the deeper story is not that the Fed suddenly turned dovish. The Fed just raised rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling inflation remains elevated. Thursday’s rally was more about financial conditions. When the 10-year yield slipped back below 5%, the discount-rate pressure on long-duration tech stocks eased. Falling oil added another layer of relief by reducing inflation concerns. That explains why semiconductors led the rebound: when yields fall, high-growth companies with strong earnings expectations can re-rate quickly. The real test now is whether the 10-year can stay below 5%. If yields rise again, Thursday’s relief rally could quickly face another valuation squeeze. My vote: A — yields are the key variable to watch.

With the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike now underway, there is no turning back once the arrow has left the bow. The tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the near term; it may not reverse until a major economic event emerges—such as a recession or a substantial equity-market decline. Accordingly, trading during this period should become more cautious. Should the pace of tightening accelerate, market volatility is likely to increase as well. Over the weekend, I held an in-person discussion with Tiger users in Hong Kong. Based on my U.S. dollar cycle model, this round of Fed tightening is a landmark event signaling that the dollar cycle has entered a new phase. Given widening interest-rate differentials, we may subsequently face an environment of accelerated U.S. dollar appreciation.

🇸🇬 My Singapore Portfolio: Simple, Boring… and Designed for Cash Flow When I started looking at my Singapore portfolio, I realised that I did not need to own dozens of stocks. Sometimes, a simple portfolio of companies that I understand can be much easier to manage. My Singapore holdings currently include Keppel, Keppel REIT and OCBC Bank. From my screenshot, my total Singapore market value is around S$4,273, while the portfolio is showing an overall unrealised gain of about S$1,641. That is the important lesson for me: I am not only looking for stocks that can go up quickly. I also want companies that can potentially provide cash flow, dividends and long-term capital growth. 🐶 This is my “cash-boost” mindset. Instead of asking only: “How much can this stock go up?” I also ask: “Can this i

The S&P 500 barely moved on Friday, gaining just 0.17%, but some of the market's most volatile stocks staged a much bigger rally. Coinbase jumped nearly 12%, Strategy surged over 16%, and Robinhood climbed more than 9% as Bitcoin rebounded. Semiconductor stocks also extended their recovery, with AMD and Applied Materials moving higher. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $Strategy(MSTR)$ $Robinhood(HOOD)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Applied Materials(AMAT)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ <

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ edged higher on Monday morning (21 September), rising around 0.4% as of 9:45am SGT. Amplifying the move,  $HSTECH 7xLongSG271216(SYHW.SI)$  rose around 2%, while $HSTECH 7xShortSG270309(9B2W.SI)$ declined a similar magnitude. The index rebounded from the 4,250 level last week after successfully retesting this support zone for the second time this year. Holding above this level will be critical to sustaining further upside momentum. In the U.S., $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ futures also traded higher after breaking above the 30,000 level, gaining approximately 0.6%. This lifted the

For my view: B. Wait for confirmation I would not chase the rally after only one strong day. Why? ₿ Bitcoin rising can quickly lift COIN, MSTR and HOOD. AMD/AMAT rising shows semiconductor recovery, but it needs to continue. High-beta stocks can rise very fast — but they can also fall very fast. One good day does not prove a new bull trend. What I want to see: High-beta stocks keep rising for several sessions. Trading volume stays strong. More sectors participate, not only crypto and semiconductors. S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue to hold their gains. Simple rule: One strong day = signal. Several strong days + broad participation = stronger confirmation. Bottom line: B — Wait, then buy selectively instead of chasing.

A flat tape on triple witching does not tell me much by itself. Expiry flows, dealer hedging and rebalancing can keep the headline index unusually quiet even while there is significant movement underneath. What stands out more is the divergence: semiconductors gained nearly 3%, while several megacaps weakened. That suggests money was rotating within the market rather than simply moving into or out of equities as a whole. I would therefore pay more attention to whether semiconductor strength and broader participation continue after the expiry-related flows disappear. If they do, Friday's divergence becomes more meaningful. If everything snaps back next week, much of it was probably positioning noise around triple witching.

🌟🌟🌟The global financial markets are currently running on a mix of high octane relief, massive macro bets and the sheer refusal to let reality ruin a good party. Following the US Federal Reserve's unanimous 25 basis point interest rate hike, Wall Street pulled off a spectacular post hike reversal.  The tech heavy Nasdaq surged and the broader markets cheered.  For a Singaporean investor looking at the Straits Times Index (STI), this macro turbulence dictates the exact temperature of our local market. Here is exactly what the market is betting on, how the global gears are grinding and what it means for fresh capital in Singapore. What is Driving the Rally? The rally was sparked by the US 10 year Treasury yields slipping back below the psychological 5% line right after the announcem

My view: B. Hold — wait for more data I think a 25bp hike is possible, but holding first could give the Fed more time to see whether inflation and oil prices stay high. Inflation is still too high. Oil above $100 could push inflation higher. But hiking too quickly could hurt economic growth and jobs. 50bp would be too aggressive in my view. If the Fed hikes, what gets hit hardest? AI & high-growth tech stocks Why? Higher rates make future profits worth less today. Expensive growth stocks usually feel this pressure more quickly. Simple rule: Rates up→ Treasury yields up → Growth/AI stocks down. Bottom line: Watch the 10-year Treasury yield, oil and inflation closely. These three could decide the next big market move.

So, the question posed here was what is the market betting on going forward. Lower unemployment? Another rate hike? I'm at the point where I'm really not bothered. Last week the market was back on the AI bubble thing again, this week costs of micron chips are going up 500%, and $NVIDIA(NVDA)$  is to double its production... so it's not a bubble, but probably the waffle of Wall Street will contradict itself again several more times this month. I'm over it!  I'm from a tiny country at the bottom of the world called New Zealand, so I have to hold a world view, compared to an "American" world view. Case and point, the World Series that Americans hold in their country that only includes America. Not trying to be obtrusive here, I was mar

almost everything rallied... Except $Netflix(NFLX)$ . Luckily I shorted, the more it falls, the more I gain

Wall Street staged a sharp rebound on September 17, just one day after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained 1.14% to 7,637.76, while the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite jumped 1.69% to 26,418.30, giving both indexes their strongest session in roughly six weeks. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ rose 0.61% to 51,778.04, while the Russell 2000 added about 0.6%. The rebound came despite the Fed raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% and signaling that more tightening could follow. Instead, investors found relief in two developments: T

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level in 31 years. The move passed by a 7-2 vote and was broadly expected by markets. The bigger question now is not the 1.25% level itself, but how far the BOJ is prepared to go from here. This matters far beyond Japan. For years, the yen has been one of the world’s cheapest funding currencies. Investors could borrow at very low Japanese rates and move that capital into higher-yielding assets elsewhere — U.S. stocks, bonds, emerging-market currencies and other risk assets. That is the basic logic behind the yen carry trade. As Japanese rates rise, that trade becomes less attractive. If the yen also strengthens, investors face both higher funding costs and FX losses. That is why every BOJ tightening cycle

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on September 16, lifting the federal funds target range to 3.75%–4.00%. The move was unanimous and broadly expected, but the rate hike itself was not what unsettled markets most. The bigger signal came from the Fed’s updated dot plot, firmer inflation projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish message that inflation remains the central policy concern. Taken together, the September meeting suggested that this was not necessarily a one-off hike. Most policymakers still see further tightening as appropriate, while stronger growth and a resilient labor market give the Fed more room to keep rates restrictive. 1. Dot Plot Turns Hawkish: 16 Officials See Another Hike The strongest signal from the meeting came from the Fed’s updated dot

The answer was A. After weeks and days anticipating the increase, the verdict is out and markets have also reacted strongly. The FED was unanimous of its decision and its the first step to further increases. As of 18 September 2026, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose another 2.8%, its fourth consecutive gain, and finally broke above its 50-day moving average after that level had acted as resistance since July. The backdrop is still unusually volatile, the SOX had fallen about 21% in July, so some of what we are seeing is recovery from a major drawdown rather than a fresh move from a stable base. Next to watch : Micron earnings on 30 Sep

After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do

The three indices closed Wednesday along two different paths. The $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ fell 1.21 per cent to 51,461.90, losing 631.21 points on the day; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ closed 0.45 per cent lower at 7,551.81, a third consecutive fall; and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite barely moved, closing 0.01 per cent lower at 25,978.42. The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points that afternoon. All three had been higher before it did, and the turn began with the decision and the press conference. The target range for the federal funds rate went up to 3.75-4 per cent, from 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent before, with

Speaker: James Early, CEO of Curia FinancialSession: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion — Fall 2026 Investing Outlook Live Date: September 11, 2026 (Review Live >>) 💬 Companion Post: Golden Sentences from James Early’s Live — Debt, Dollar & the “Capybara” Strategy James Early opened his portion of the livestream by stepping away from the daily market noise and asking a much bigger question: Why has the U.S. stock market continued to rise over the long run, even as federal debt has expanded toward $40 trillion? His answer was not that debt is irrelevant. Inst

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Speaker: @Selina_Han_Insights, Founder of Han Insights; former Cboe EconomistSession: Debt, Doom, and Dispersion — Fall 2026 Investing Outlook Live Date: September 11, 2026 (Review Live >>) 💬 Companion Post: Golden Sentences from Selina Han’s Live — Dollar, Fed & Dispersion Selina Han’s part of the livestream focused less on whether U.S. debt is simply “good” or “bad” and more on how macro pressure actually travels through markets. She explained the mechanism connecting fiscal def

Weekly Roundup 1. The Real Focus of the FOMC Isn't the Rate Move. It's the Treasury Yield Curve. Markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point hike, so whether asset prices reprice sharply in the near term will hinge on how the Fed frames its future rate path and inflation outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield is closing in on 5%, and a decisive break above that level would weigh on both stocks and gold through three channels: valuation discounting, funding costs and risk appetite. What markets are really waiting on is whether long-term yields have peaked. 2. Beneath a Calm Surface, US Stocks Show Signs of Technical Fatigue. Market breadth is fading fast: only about 28% of NYSE-listed stocks are trading above their 20-day moving average, and the equal-weight S&P 500 has slipped be