After months of aggressive CapEx spending—\$50\text{B}–\$70\text{B} annually on fast-depreciating AI infrastructure—the market is shifting focus from top-line hype toward Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) and sustainable free cash flow. Investors are tightening valuation assumptions on unprofitable tech and favoring companies with strong pricing power and balance sheet resilience.
What would change my mind?
1. Evidence that Enterprise AI software monetization is accelerating fast enough to outpace GPU depreciation cycles.
2. Broad-based margin expansion across tech despite high infrastructure spending.
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