To The Moon

Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger Brokers covering changing trends in semiconductor stocks and US equity indexes, along with trading ideas for gold and silver. If you missed the live session, you can watch the course replay here >>

半導體股已見底還是跌勢剛開始？股指新一輪大行情正在醞釀

Next, I will categorize and summarize the course’s most important information and trading insights. This should help investors who did not have time to attend the class quickly understand my current market views. First, a brief personal introduction:

My Professional Background

Gu Mingzhe is a guest strategy instructor for CME, an instructor for the Singapore Exchange, a gold medal mentor in the Futures Daily live trading competition and a senior derivatives trader. He has 20 years of experience in equities and international futures and offers distinctive insights into global politics, financial markets and commodities. He specializes in identifying major opportunities where fundamental and technical signals align and has maintained high returns with low drawdowns for many years.

He was among the first guests featured on Hexun’s live futures trading program. He accurately captured the major US equity declines in December 2018 and March 2020 by shorting S&P 500 futures and publicly disclosed his entry and exit levels in advance through established financial media. An introductory stock index futures course he jointly developed with exchanges was prominently recommended by several leading overseas brokers. His more than 100 public strategy classes have generated tens of millions of views.

In 2018, he placed second in the international futures category of the Trading Masters Futures Competition.

In 2021, he ranked seventh in the heavyweight category of the eighth Futures Daily Global Derivatives Competition. He also placed first in CME copper options and US 10 year Treasury options and second in WTI crude oil options.

In 2025, he ranked ninth in the heavyweight category of the 12th Futures Daily Global Derivatives Competition and placed among the top five for long term consistency.

Core Views From This Course

$SP500指數主連 2612(ESmain)$ $納斯達克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指數主連 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指數主連 2612(MNQmain)$ $道瓊斯(.DJI)$ $道瓊斯指數主連 2612(YMmain)$ $微型道瓊斯指數主連 2612(MYMmain)$ $羅素2000指數ETF(IWM)$ $羅素2000指數三倍做空ETF(TZA)$

This online market analysis session draws on the speaker’s live trading experience to assess the outlook for global equity indexes, semiconductors, gold and silver.

$標普500波動率指數(VIX)$

Semiconductor Outlook: Topping Signals and the Short Thesis

Pattern Similarity: The current semiconductor cycle closely resembles the consolidation that followed the final major advance of the 1999 to 2000 dot-com bubble. It appears to be the late stage of an irrational, sentiment-driven rally.

Index Divergence: The Nasdaq reached a record high in early October, while semiconductor stocks failed to confirm the move. This created a major negative divergence. A similar signal appeared in 2024 before the semiconductor sector entered a correction.

Live Trade: Around October 7, the strategy shorted one of the semiconductor sector’s fundamentally weakest stocks. ARM was entered near $290 and later fell to around $210, a decline of almost 30%.

$費城半導體指數(SOX)$ $三倍做多半導體ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXL)$ $三倍做空半導體ETF-Direxion Daily(SOXS)$ $iShares費城交易所半導體ETF(SOXX)$ $1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr(NVDS)$ $英偉達(NVDA)$ $美光科技(MU)$

Current Market Divergences

Equity and Spot Price Divergence: AI hardware stocks have fallen sharply, while spot prices for memory products such as DDR5 continue to rise. The equity market appears to be pricing in a future deterioration in the memory cycle.

Valuations: Following the latest decline, the forward P/E ratio of a Philadelphia Semiconductor Index related ETF has fallen below that of the S&P 500. Leading manufacturers such as SK Hynix trade at very low price to book ratios, indicating that their shares carry little valuation premium.

Credit Risk: CDS spreads for industry leaders such as Broadcom and Nvidia continue to widen, reflecting greater concern over default risk. JPMorgan remains constructive on industry fundamentals but cautious about credit conditions.

Outlook: The sector is forming an interim top within a wide trading range. Further rebounds remain possible, while a disorderly collapse is unlikely.

Global Equity Index Outlook

Seasonal Market Patterns

Historical Data: Long term market averages show that US equities often form an interim low around late October during the second half of the fourth quarter. The probability of gains is historically high from the midterm elections through February of the following year.

Market Outlook: Once major events such as the US midterm elections and developments in the Middle East become clearer, seasonal tailwinds could support a Christmas and year end rally in US equity indexes.

$微型WTI原油主連 2611(MCLmain)$ $小原油主連 2611(QMmain)$ $天然氣主連 2611(NGmain)$ $小天然氣主連 2611(QGmain)$ $WTI原油主連 2612(CLmain)$

Key Markets and Trading Strategies

Bullish on the Russell 2000: The index has recently shown a strong negative correlation with the 10 year US Treasury yield. It began rising as Treasury yields declined and has significantly outperformed the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 is available for trading through the Tiger Brokers platform.

$羅素2000指數ETF(IWM)$ $羅素2000指數三倍做多ETF-Direxion(TNA)$ $微型羅素2000指數主連 2612(MRTYmain)$ $羅素2000指數主連 2612(RTYmain)$ $20+年以上美國國債ETF-iShares(TLT)$

Live Options Strategy: A bull call vertical spread on the Russell 2000 has already been established. The reward to risk ratio exceeded 2.4 at entry, and the position is currently profitable. Maximum profit and loss are clearly defined, keeping risk controlled.

Gold and Silver Outlook

Gold Outlook

Current Positioning: CTA systematic strategies currently hold their largest active short position in gold this year. Goldman Sachs’ model shows exceptionally strong upside convexity, meaning the same amount of capital could drive a much larger upward move than downward move.

$黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $白銀ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $白銀主連 2612(SImain)$ $迷你白銀主連 2612(QImain)$ $2倍做多白銀ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$

Technical Picture: The quarterly RSI remains overbought, and the current correction has been insufficient to resolve this condition. Historical patterns show that gold often declines during the fourth quarter after forming a major top.

Market Outlook: A decline in the 10 year Treasury yield and real interest rates would reduce gold’s opportunity cost, suggesting that a rebound window is approaching. If gold reaches a new low in the fourth quarter, it could test the $3,850 area.

Silver Outlook

Major Fundamental Shift: The market previously expected a structural shortage of silver. However, silver demand from the solar industry is now projected to fall by about 30% this year, equivalent to roughly 60 million ounces of consumption. The surplus is expected to persist through 2027, completely reversing the previous supply and demand narrative.

Technical Picture: Silver has fallen by more than half from its peak, making this one of the most extreme technical collapses in its history. Short positioning is at its highest level of the year, while the weekly downtrend remains intact.

Market Outlook: Silver is expected to rebound briefly before testing lower levels again. The next major cyclical low may not arrive until 2029. A rebound toward higher levels could provide another opportunity to establish short positions.

Key Chapter Review

00:00 Market Analysis and Personal Trading Background

This opening chapter introduces the session’s analysis of global equity indexes, semiconductors and gold. The speaker discusses his background as an instructor for CME and the Singapore Exchange and his 20 years of live trading experience in global equities, futures and options. He also cites a 202% return last year with a maximum drawdown of only 11%, emphasizing the importance of risk and drawdown control.

03:13 Semiconductor Topping Signals, Short Thesis and Current Market Conditions

This chapter compares the current semiconductor market with the 1999 to 2000 dot-com bubble. The speaker argues that semiconductors may be forming a top in 2026. In early October, the Nasdaq reached a record high while semiconductor stocks failed to confirm the move, creating a divergence signal that supported a short position in ARM. The stock subsequently fell by almost 30%.

The chapter also argues that semiconductor equities are pricing in a deterioration in the cycle before it appears in spot fundamentals, which remain strong. Sector valuations have already fallen below those of the S&P 500, so future opportunities will depend heavily on timing.

11:34 Growing Credit Divergence Raises Concerns About Semiconductors

This chapter focuses on widening credit divergence across the semiconductor industry. Bond and CDS spreads linked to Broadcom and Nvidia have widened significantly. These major AI beneficiaries continue to report rapid earnings growth but also carry substantial debt, leading to stronger concerns over default risk.

Leading investment banks remain constructive on industry fundamentals but cautious about credit. CDS spreads for technology giants and hyperscale data center companies have a strong negative correlation with the Nasdaq, and widening spreads are becoming visible again.

14:27 Seasonal Opportunities for a Christmas and Year End Rally

This chapter analyzes the S&P 500 through a seasonal framework. Historical averages show that index lows often occur in late October, regardless of whether the year includes midterm elections. The exact timing differs each year, although Christmas and year end rallies during the second half of the fourth quarter are historically common after the midterms.

Major events such as the midterm elections and developments in the Middle East may become clearer by mid November, improving the prospects for a subsequent US equity rally.

17:28 Russell 2000 Investment Opportunity and Strategy

This chapter highlights the Russell 2000, which is available through Tiger Brokers. Its recent performance has closely tracked the decline in the 10 year Treasury yield and has significantly outperformed the Nasdaq. The pattern resembles the break and recovery seen in March.

The speaker shares a related options strategy and notes that semiconductors are currently trading within a wide range. Once major macro events become clearer in early November, the market may form a fourth quarter low and create new buying opportunities.

24:00 Gold Outlook Under Current CTA Positioning

This chapter examines gold’s current positioning structure. CTA systematic strategies hold substantial gold shorts, with active bearish exposure at its highest level of the year. A similar setup in August produced a short squeeze that reversed short positions into longs.

Goldman Sachs’ model now indicates exceptionally strong upside convexity. The same amount of capital could produce a much larger upward move than downward move, creating an attractive risk reward profile. However, this does not imply that gold must rise immediately, and further declines remain possible.

25:53 Silver’s Current Downtrend and Future Outlook

This chapter examines silver’s weekly downtrend. Prices have fallen by more than half, making the move one of the most extreme collapses in history. Earlier in the year, the market focused on a structural silver shortage and a potential squeeze.

The narrative changed after solar sector demand was projected to fall by 30% this year and remain weak through 2027. Combined with the largest short positioning of the year, this suggests that the downtrend may continue.

29:08 Gold’s Quarterly Overbought Correction and Future Outlook

This chapter compares quarterly charts of gold and the 10 year Treasury yield. Gold, like at the 2011 bull market peak, remains in an overbought RSI correction. Some indicators remain extremely stretched, and the latest pullback has been insufficient to resolve the quarterly overbought condition.

However, gold retains unique structural support from central bank purchases, unsustainable fiscal deficits in developed economies and demand for de-dollarization. The decline therefore resembles a consolidation within a broader uptrend. The speaker previously expected gold to struggle to make a new high this year but now believes a rebound is approaching. Trading success will depend on identifying key turning points rather than relying solely on fundamentals.

33:05 Current Gold and Silver Trends and Future Cycle Levels

This chapter summarizes the technical outlook for gold and silver. Historical comparisons show that both metals often decline during the fourth quarter after forming a top. Their quarterly charts remain overbought, with silver facing greater downside pressure.

Silver could provide a short opportunity after a rebound, while its final cyclical low may not arrive until 2029. Gold remains stronger than silver. A new fourth quarter low could push gold toward $3,850. Leveraged trading decisions require technical confirmation and cannot rely on fundamentals alone.