Free cash flow would convince me most. AI revenue and cloud growth can look impressive, but durable value ultimately requires those investments to generate more cash than the capital needed to sustain them.

I would watch whether free cash flow improves even as depreciation and infrastructure costs catch up with the current capex boom. If revenue continues growing strongly while capex growth slows and FCF margins expand, that would be much stronger evidence that AI infrastructure is producing genuine economic returns rather than simply adding capacity.

For me, the key transition is: AI demand → revenue growth → operating leverage → sustainable free cash flow.

# Cloud Doubles, Cash Flow Turns Negative — What Broke at Alphabet?

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