Kelvin 梁
10-31 13:57

TMF’s leverage-decay risk is high at present—not because decay is a fixed daily cost, but because a 3× daily-reset long-duration Treasury vehicle is highly path-dependent. The 82.47% IV percentile and 38.84% implied volatility indicate that the options market is pricing volatility above most of its own historical range; its IV/HV ratio is 1.25, so implied volatility is also above recent realised volatility.


Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF)
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closed at US$29.85 on 2026-10-31 . It is roughly 28.88% below its 52-week high of US$41.97 and only 30.54% up its 52-week range from the low of US$24.52—evidence of a very wide risk envelope.


What “3× leverage decay” actually means


TMF seeks daily, not multi-month, leveraged exposure. In a clean sustained Treasury rally, the compounding effect can help; in a steady decline or a volatile back-and-forth rate market, it hurts. Thus, it is better understood as volatility drag and path risk, not inevitable calendar decay.


A
@Papa Bear：
$TMF 20261113 32.0 CALL$ Sold TMF covered call at high 32 resistance for credit
$TMF 20261113 32.0 CALL$ Sold TMF covered call at high 32 resistance for credit

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