To The Moon

Earnings & Diversification Thesis

On Tue, 27 Oct 2026, $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ announced its Q3 2026 earnings.

It was a solid set of numbers.

Coupled with management’s upwards revision of the bank’s 2026 outlook, sent the stock higher.

Since earnings release, SOFI has climbed about +14.79%. (see below)

Given the recent run over AI-related stocks, US market (in particular Nasdaq) has been rather volatile - affecting SOFI’s rally in the process.

However, SOFI remains poised for a big move as the fintech is well positioned to diversify revenue and deliver profitable growth.

Q3 2026 Earnings Report Card.

Financial Highlights

• Net Revenue (GAAP) was $1.4 billion; this is up +44% YoY.

• Net Revenue (adjusted) came in at $1.37 billion vs Wall Street’s analysts $1.26 billion estimates.

• GAAP Net Income (GAAP) was $241 million.

• Earnings per share (adjusted diluted) was $0.18 vs $0.17 expected by analysts.

• EBITDA (adjusted) was $470 million, this is a +70% increase, with a healthy +34.3% margin.

Segment & Operational Performance

• Lending Segment’s revenue grew to $821.4 million with $16.9 billion in originations

• Financial Services segment’s revenue was $525.1 million with $51.3 billion in deposits.

• Technology Platform’s revenue came to $87.4 million with 140.4 million total accounts

Guidance & Outlook

• The initial 2027 outlook was introduced, featuring a projected adjusted net revenue of $6.4 billion, representing a +27% growth and adjusted earnings of $0.90 per share.

Lending & Non-Lending activities.

One of the biggest concerns has been SOFI increasing reliance on lending.

With lending continues to drive growth, it also exposes the company to:

• Higher credit risk.

• Greater capital requirements.

• Shifts in borrowing demand.

A larger contribution from fee-based and other non-lending operations could make SOFI’s business more resilient over time.

Unlike lending, these businesses activities require less capital and can generate more consistent revenue across economic cycles.

Lending business has recently grown faster than non-lending revenue, raising questions about the pace of SOFI’s diversification.

However, SOFI’s Q3 results offered encouraging signs.

Non-lending revenue continued to grow, helping address concerns that the company was becoming too dependent on lending.

• SOFI's non-lending businesses are categorised under the Financial Services and Technology Platform segments.

• For Financial services - net revenue reached $525.1 million, representing a +12.61% QoQ increase from $466.28 million.

• For Technology platform - segment revenue ticked up marginally by +3.4% QoQ to $87.4 million from Q2 2026’s $84.5 million, as the platform began capturing new client traffic.

Although lending remains an important part of SOFI’s growth story, the growing mix of non-lending business improves revenue stability and supports long-term profitability.

Looking ahead, SoFi’s outlook suggests its business momentum will continue through 2027 and beyond.

Moreover, revenue from its capital-light, non-lending businesses is expected to increase, supporting the rally in SOFI stock.

SOFI’s catalysts.

SOFI’s stellar Q3 performance has been (a) driven by membership growth, (b) increased product adoption, and (c) improved operating efficiency.

Membership Growth and Cross-Selling

SOFI’s membership base increased +35% YoY to 17.1 million, while total products grew +44% to 26.7 million. (see above)

Existing members accounted for +51% of new product openings, indicating growth is increasingly coming from more in-depth relationships with current customers rather than membership expansion alone.

Products per member rose to 1.56 from 1.47 a year ago, strengthening the potential of SOFI’s cross-selling strategy to improve customer lifetime value and support more efficient growth.

Profitability Momentum

Profitability is another important part of the story.

• Adjusted EBITDA rose +70% to a record $470 million, with a 34% margin.

• Adjusted net income increased +74% to $243 million.

• Adjusted EPS reached $0.18, up +64% YoY.

Fee-Based Revenue Diversification

Most importantly, SOFI’s revenue diversification will likely be the biggest catalyst.

In Q3 2026, fee-based revenue reached $571 million, accounting for +42% of total revenue, up from Q2 2026’s 39%.

This brings SOFI closer to its target of generating ½ (or 50%) its revenue from fee-based businesses.

Loan platform originations also increased to $3.8 billion, creating opportunities to expand fee income without relying entirely on balance-sheet lending.

Meanwhile, the Lending segment generated approximately $807 million in adjusted net revenue, supported by $670 million in lending net interest income and a consolidated net interest margin of 6.14%.

Upgraded 2026/27 Guidance

SOFI’s updated guidance reflects management’s confidence in the company’s operating momentum.

Fiscal Year 2026.

For 2026, adjusted net revenue is now expected to reach $5.04 billion, representing +40% YoY growth and exceeding the previous guidance range of $4.75 - $4.85 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA is projected at $1.66 billion, implying a margin of about 33%, up from the earlier forecast of $1.6 billion.

Adjusted net income is expected to reach $840 million, with a 17% margin, up from the previous estimate of $825 million. The adjusted EPS outlook has also increased to $0.61 from $0.60.

Preliminary 2027 Outlook.

Looking further ahead, SOFI issued preliminary 2027 guidance pointing to continued growth in both revenue and profitability.

The fintech company anticipates adjusted net revenue of $6.4 billion in 2027, representing +27% YoY growth.

Adjusted EBITDA is projected to rise to $2.24 billion, with margin expanding to about 35%.

Adjusted net income is expected to reach $1.28 billion, implying a net income margin of around 20%, while adjusted EPS is forecasted at $0.90.

Technical Analysis.

Taking into considerations current market sentiments and SOFI’s rally since Q3 2026 earnings, to determine if SOFI is still worth investing, will be deferring to the stock’s technical indicators of (1) Simple Moving Averages SMA) of 20-day, 50-day & 200-day, (2) MACD and (3) RSI.

Simple Moving Average (SMA).

On 02 Nov 2026, SOFI ended trading day at $16.60 per share, higher than its SMA of 20-day ($15.47) and 50-day ($16.53) but lower than its 200-day ($17.74).

The stock is exhibiting a bullish short-term recovery within a still-bearish longer-term trend.

This follows the "death cross" formation on 04 Mar 2026, with SOFI entering an extended downtrend.

With stock price recently reclaiming both the 20-day and 50-day SMAs, it signals a short-term trend reversal.

MACD.

The MACD line (0.09) sits slightly above zero line while Signal line (-0.24) remains below it. The MACD line crossing above zero indicates that medium-term momentum is shifting from bearish to bullish territory.

The MACD line is above its Signal line, following an upward crossover.

This is a bullish momentum signal where recent price action has strengthened relative to its smoothed trend, suggesting sentiment is shifting toward buyers.

MACD line’s move above zero adds support to that recovery, although the small positive reading leaves it vulnerable to reversing.

The positive divergence (+0.33) together with positive green histogram supports the bullish crossover but is not independent confirmation.

Overall, MACD points to a developing upward trajectory, not yet a durable trend reversal.

RSI.

The 14-day RSI of 55.54 is above the neutral 50 level and below the overbought threshold of 70.

That indicates moderately positive momentum without an overbought reading, supporting the recovery interpretation rather than signalling a strong, established advance.

All indicators taken together, favour a near-term rebound.

Reclaiming the 200-day SMA ($17.74) would strengthen the case that SOFI is moving beyond a bounce within its broader downtrend.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

On 12 Nov 2025, SOFI peaked at $32.21 per share.

To permanently breach and hold its peak, will depend on a fundamental market re-rating from a rate-sensitive bank to a high-margin tech ecosystem.

Until capital-light, fee-based revenue overwhelmingly dominant its earnings, price action above $32 will remain vulnerable to macroeconomic and credit-cycle pullbacks. Agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• INTC plunges -29% : Buy, Bail or Trap ?

• US market tested by Tech stocks' AI capex +...

• MSFT vs GOOG - AI race is "On". Who wins ?

• Do you think SOFI's rapid expansion of fee-based revenue can sustainably insulate its earnings from lending-related credit risks and macro volatility ?

• Do you think its prelim 2027 guidance of $6.4 billion in revenue & $0.90 EPS provides enough fundamental catalyst to drive a permanent re-rating back to SOFI’s $32.21 peak?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents