To The Moon

November 4 is shaping up to be a major day for U.S. markets.

The midterm elections have delivered a dramatic political shift, Nasdaq futures have staged a sharp rebound, AMD has just reported nearly 100% growth in its data center business, and another wave of earnings from Coherent, Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin is coming after the closing bell. $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Coherent(COHR)$ $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $ARM Holdings(ARM)$

For investors, three themes are worth watching: how markets reprice political risk, whether AI companies can deliver real earnings growth, and whether upcoming economic data will change expectations for interest rates.

1. Midterms Are Over — But Nasdaq Futures Are on a Roller Coaster

Democrats have won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections, setting up a divided government with President Trump remaining in the White House.

The initial market reaction was sharp. During Asian trading hours on November 4, Nasdaq-100 futures fell as much as 2.4%, while S&P 500 futures dropped approximately 1.4%.

But the selling pressure did not last.

As investors reassessed the potential policy implications, futures recovered significantly. At a later Reuters reporting checkpoint, Nasdaq-100 futures had turned positive by approximately 0.26%, while S&P 500 futures were up around 0.15%.

From a sharp selloff to a rapid recovery, all within hours. What exactly is Wall Street pricing in?

Tiger thinks the answer goes beyond which party controls Congress.

Investors are now assessing whether the new political landscape could lead to tighter oversight of AI infrastructure, changes to financial and cryptocurrency regulation, more complicated fiscal negotiations, and additional restrictions on data center development.

AI infrastructure is particularly sensitive. Changes to electricity pricing, project approvals and local infrastructure requirements could affect the cost and timing of future data center expansion.

But congressional control does not mean policy changes take effect immediately. President Trump retains veto power, and the newly elected Congress will not take office until January 2027.

That distinction matters.

Political uncertainty may have triggered the initial selloff, but investors still need to evaluate which risks could actually affect corporate earnings.

The early V-shaped recovery was significant, although it does not guarantee that technology stocks have established a lasting bottom.

2. AMD Delivers a Blowout Quarter — AI Computing Is Entering a New Phase

One of the biggest earnings stories came from AMD.

The company reported Q3 2026 revenue of $13.38 billion, up 45% year over year, while non-GAAP EPS reached $2.09, an increase of 74%.

The real highlight was its data center segment.

Data center revenue reached $8.55 billion, surging 97% year over year.

AMD also guided for approximately $17 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, plus or minus 3%, signaling continued momentum in AI infrastructure demand.

These numbers suggest that the AI computing market is becoming more competitive, with AMD gaining scale alongside NVIDIA.

AMD's growth is being supported by EPYC server CPUs and Instinct AI GPUs, including the rollout of its MI450 series and Helios rack-scale systems.

But the next challenge is not simply winning more orders.

Can AMD translate stronger GPU demand into sustainable margins, free cash flow and long-term profitability?

The company reported a 56% non-GAAP gross margin in Q3 and guided for approximately 55% in Q4. That is a reminder that scaling AI hardware revenue does not automatically guarantee higher margins.

This is becoming a recurring theme across the AI industry: strong demand, but increasingly important questions about the quality of growth.

3. Tonight's Earnings: Optical Networking, AI Chips and Software Take Center Stage

Another wave of earnings arrives after the U.S. market closes on November 4.

Coherent (COHR) will report results and hold its earnings call at 4:30 p.m. ET. The focus will be on demand for 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, AI data center revenue, gross margins and forward guidance. With AI clusters expanding, high-speed optical connectivity is becoming increasingly important.

Qualcomm (QCOM) will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results, with a conference call at 4:45 p.m. ET. Investors will be watching smartphone chip demand, automotive and IoT growth, AI PCs and the company's efforts to expand beyond its traditional mobile business.

Arm Holdings (ARM) will report after the close, with management speaking at 5:00 p.m. ET. The key questions involve data center CPU adoption, licensing and royalty growth, and whether Arm-based architectures continue gaining traction across cloud infrastructure.

AppLovin (APP) will also report after the close, with a 5:00 p.m. ET earnings webcast. Investors will be watching advertising revenue growth, AI-driven monetization, customer expansion and profitability.

Datadog (DDOG) and Uber (UBER) are also on today's earnings calendar, adding further insight into enterprise software, cloud spending and consumer demand.

For AI hardware investors, Coherent and Arm may be particularly interesting to watch, because they provide two different views of the infrastructure cycle: optical networking demand and CPU architecture adoption.

4. Recent Earnings Reveal a Growing Divide Across the AI Supply Chain

AMD is not the only company reporting impressive growth.

Arista Networks (ANET) reported Q3 revenue of approximately $3.66 billion, up 58.5% year over year. Its non-GAAP operating margin reached 49.1%, highlighting strong profitability alongside rapid AI networking growth.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) reported approximately $19.9 billion in revenue for its fiscal first quarter of 2027, compared with $5.0 billion a year earlier. However, its gross margin declined sequentially from 17.5% to 12.7%.

Palantir (PLTR) reported Q3 revenue of $2.31 billion, up 96% year over year. U.S. commercial revenue increased 148%, suggesting that enterprise AI adoption continues generating substantial commercial demand.

Put these results together, and a clear pattern begins to emerge.

AI demand is still expanding rapidly, but profitability is becoming increasingly uneven across the supply chain.

Networking companies can benefit from strong product differentiation and relatively attractive margins. Server manufacturers may generate enormous revenue growth while facing more intense pricing and cost pressures. AI software companies are beginning to demonstrate how enterprise adoption translates into actual revenue.

These are fundamentally different business models, even though they all benefit from the same AI investment cycle.

And that is why investors may need to stop treating every AI-related stock as part of one identical trade.

5. Economic Data Could Become the Next Market Catalyst

Earnings are only part of the story.

The U.S. economic calendar also includes October ADP private-sector employment data and the ISM Services PMI on November 4.

The biggest macroeconomic event still ahead is the October U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The market will be watching job growth, unemployment and wage inflation for clues about the Federal Reserve's next policy decisions.

With Treasury yields remaining elevated, interest-rate expectations continue to matter for high-valuation technology companies and capital-intensive AI infrastructure businesses.

Strong earnings can support stock prices, but changes in financing costs and discount rates can still influence valuations.

Tiger View

Tiger thinks the most important development today is not simply the midterm election outcome or AMD's impressive earnings.

It is that Wall Street is increasingly being forced to separate AI revenue growth from the actual financial returns generated by that growth.

AMD's data center revenue nearly doubled. Arista delivered almost 59% revenue growth. Supermicro expanded sales dramatically. Palantir continued translating enterprise AI demand into accelerating software revenue.

These results suggest that the AI investment cycle remains active.

But the companies benefiting from that demand are not necessarily capturing the same level of economic value.

Some are generating strong operating margins. Others are growing revenue rapidly while facing margin pressure, greater working-capital needs or rising infrastructure costs.

Meanwhile, political uncertainty and interest-rate expectations are adding another layer of complexity.

Tiger would focus on three signals next: whether tonight's semiconductor and optical networking earnings confirm continued infrastructure demand, whether revenue growth is translating into stronger profitability and cash flow, and whether upcoming employment data changes the interest-rate outlook.

If the next phase looks like:

AI orders keep expanding → margins and cash flow improve → infrastructure investment delivers measurable returns,

then the industry's long-term growth story could become more financially sustainable.

But if the pattern becomes:

Revenue grows rapidly → margins remain pressured → financing costs increase → returns on AI investment disappoint,

then investors may continue reassessing valuations across different parts of the AI supply chain.

So the key question today is not simply:

"Which AI company is growing the fastest?"

It is:

"Which companies are actually turning the AI boom into sustainable profits and cash flow?"

Related Stocks

AI GPUs & CPUs: $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$, $NVIDIA(NVDA)$

Watch: AI accelerator demand, product competition, next-generation system deployment and gross margins.

Optical Networking: $Coherent(COHR)$, $Arista Networks(ANET)$

Watch: 800G/1.6T optical connectivity, AI networking orders, data center expansion and profitability.

Semiconductors & Edge AI: $Qualcomm(QCOM)$, $Arm Holdings(ARM)$

Watch: data center CPU adoption, AI PCs, smartphone demand, licensing and royalties.

AI Servers: $Super Micro Computer(SMCI)$

Watch: server delivery growth, gross margins, working capital and cash conversion.

AI Software & Applications: $Palantir(PLTR)$, $AppLovin(APP)$, $Datadog(DDOG)$

Watch: enterprise AI monetization, customer spending, advertising growth and operating leverage.

Market ETFs: $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$, $SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY)$

Watch: post-election market sentiment, technology valuations and the impact of economic data.

Today's Poll

With the midterms behind us and AI earnings in full swing, what could drive the next major move in U.S. stocks?

① AI hardware — GPU and optical networking demand remain strong

② AI software — the next phase is about real monetization and profits

③ The Fed and economic data — interest rates will determine valuations

④ Post-election policy uncertainty — new regulations could reshape sector performance

For market discussion only. This is not investment advice. Markets involve risk, and investment decisions should be made carefully.

Sources: Reuters (November 4, 2026); AMD, Arista Networks, Supermicro and Palantir official earnings releases (November 2–3, 2026); Coherent, Qualcomm, Arm and AppLovin investor relations announcements; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prepared ahead of the November 4 U.S. market close. Intraday futures prices are reporting-time snapshots, and upcoming earnings results have not yet been announced.