To The Moon

US stocks closed October 2026 with sharp losses as disappointing earnings from AMZN & GOOG reignited concerns over the mounting costs of Big Tech's AI investments and the potential returns on such massive spendings.

US Composite Index - 05 Oct 2026 to 03 Nov 202626 to

The broader market struggled throughout the month:

• The S&P 500 fell -1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled -5.2%, marking its worst monthly drop since March 2025, according to Yahoo Finance.

• The Dow bucked the trend and even managed a +1.5% gain for the month, standing out as a rare exception to the market-wide decline.

Shocking Truth.

Latest bout of selling followed quarterly earnings reports from AMZN and GOOG, that

• Failed to meet certain market expectations.

• Raised concerns & questions about whether their enormous AI infrastructure investments would generate adequate returns.

On 30 Oct 2026, AMZN shares fell -2%, while GOOG extended its losses after recording its steepest single-day (-25%) decline in more than two decades on 29 Oct 2026. (see below)

Meanwhile, INTC added to the technology sector's woes, with the chipmaker's shares came under severe pressure after INTC’s Q4 2026’s outlook fell short of Wall Street expectations, with the stock plunging as much as -29% on 30 Oct 2026.

AI’s Cursed October

US’s AI trade has struggled in October 2026 for multiple reasons.

Last month, AI-driven vulnerabilities led to several major cybersecurity incidents in what was dubbed "Black October".

$ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF(CHAT)$, an actively managed ETF that focused on AI, specifically generative AI & related technologies - is off -19.34% over the past month (as of 30 Oct 2026). (see below)

Meanwhile, the AI debt boom emerged as a key concern.

The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 5.3% at the start of the month, reviving concerns about borrowing costs and the massive debt financing used to build AI data centers.  (see below)

04 Oct 2026 to 03 Nov 2026

Thankfully, the US 10-year Treasury yields eased in late October 2026 due to strong safe-haven bond buying, triggered by a global tech and AI stock sell-off.

Yields fell further as global oil prices retreated and investors scaled back expectations for aggressive Fed’s interest rate hikes

Investors have constantly reassessed technology valuations amid rising rates and heavy corporate borrowing.

Reliefing energy stocks.

Energy shares provided a rare & bright spot amid the broader market weakness.

Thanks to wider refining margins amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, both ExxonMobil and Chevron briefly touched record highs, after both oil majors reported stronger earnings.

Bitcoin Falls as Binance Hack Rattles Crypto Market

In October, weakness also extended beyond US stocks.

Cryptocurrencies were under pressure too, with Bitcoin declining more than -7% over the past month.

Digital assets faced selling pressure following a reported $6.3 billion hack involving cryptocurrency exchange Binance on 30 Oct 2026. (see below)

The reported incident was the largest crypto heist in history, leading to iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) falling by -8.4% over the past month.

ETF - Winning Areas of October.

Against above somber backdrop, the following exchange-traded funds (ETFs) emerged as winners during tumultuous October 2026.

Below are 5 winning ETFs, deserving our undivided attention.

(1) $BREAKWAVE TANKER SHIPPING ETF(BWET)$ – Up by +20.7%.

BWET is a commodity-focused, synthetic ETF that tracks crude oil tanker freight futures.

Closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, has disrupted key shipping routes, driving a sharp surge in freight rates.

Consequently, elevated shipping rates have positioned the shipping fund BWET as a clear beneficiary.

(2) $United States Brent Oil Fund LP(BNO)$ - Up by +18.8%.

BNO is a commodity pool exchange-traded product that tracks the daily percentage changes of Brent crude oil spot prices using near-month futures contracts.

With the ongoing Middle East tensions, Brent crude futures climbed to around $113 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures reached around $103 per barrel (at the time of writing). (see below)

(3) $Munificent Seven ETF(BBLS)$ - Up by +14.6%.

BBLS is an actively managed thematic equity energy ETF focused on large-cap energy & infrastructure companies positioned to benefit from AI build-out.

It looks to offer long-term growth of capital through these sectors, helping drive AI growth.

(4) $iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF(IHAK)$ - Up by +8.8%.

IHAK is a passively managed, thematic equity ETF, focused on the cybersecurity & technology sector.

Cybersecurity stocks are having a strong year, due to rising AI-related spending and growing warnings from technology leaders about the risks posed by powerful AI agents.

Emergence of advanced AI models has raised concerns about increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, making cybersecurity investments even more crucial.

*note : IHAK is up about +66% YTD.

(5) $WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund(WCLD)$ - Up by +8.2%.

WCLD is a passively managed thematic sector equity ETF that tracks the performance of emerging public cloud computing companies.

Widespread adoption of remote connectivity continues to fuel the need for scalable and reliable cloud solutions.

In Q2 2026, global cloud infrastructure service spending grew to $143.4 billion, an increase of more than $43 billion from Q2 2025.

As per Synergy Research, this marked the highest growth rate in 8 years.

Some major cloud providers recently revealed that AI cloud capacity is sold out through to 2027.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

Are you attracted to the gains that these 5 ETFs have enjoyed thus far ?

I am too. However, in the face of changing political landscape, there is a need to consider things from a 360 perspective.

Here’s my take :

(1) Directly vulnerable to a Middle East de-escalation - BWET & BNO.

• Vulnerability: Extremely High.

Analysis:

• Both BWET and BNO gained primarily from geopolitical risk premiums and trade route bottlenecks caused by the Middle East standoff.

• When tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz reopens smoothly, tanker freight rates and crude oil risk premiums will drop sharply.

• As these synthetic/futures-based commodity products track near-month contracts, they are prone to severe pullbacks once supply disruption fears dissipate, making their gains the most likely to evaporate rapidly.

(2) Partially exposed to Geopolitical & Macro normalization - BBLS

• Vulnerability: Moderate to High.

Analysis:

• BBLS bridges traditional energy with AI power infrastructure demand.

• A decline in oil prices from a Middle East resolution would compress short-term earnings and valuations across its traditional energy holdings.

• However, structural demand for power infrastructure driven by AI data center expansion provides a partial buffer, keeping it from experiencing a total unwind compared to pure commodity oil funds.

(3) Driven by Structural Trends, unrelated to Middle East tensions - IHAK & WCLD

(a) iShares Cybersecurity and Tech ETF (IHAK)

• Vulnerability: Low.

Analysis:

• IHAK's October gains happened because of (a) major cyberattacks ("Black October") and (b) growing needs to block advanced AI threats, that ‘forced’ companies to spend more on security, rather than because of oil prices in the Middle East.

• Cyber defense is evolving into a mandatory operational expense for global enterprises.

• While tech valuations remain sensitive to broader interest rate movements, a Middle East resolution would not diminish fundamental demand for cybersecurity software.

(b) WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund (WCLD)

• Vulnerability: Low (Geopolitical) / Moderate (Valuation).

Analysis:

• Enterprise demand for cloud infrastructure and AI capacity (reported as sold out thru 2027) relies on long-term digital transformation trends rather than Middle East risk.

• A geopolitical resolution could actually benefit cloud stocks by lowering oil-driven inflation pressures and stabilizing Treasury yields.

• Its primary risk stems from (a) macro interest rate pressures and (b) Big Tech capex scrutiny rather than geopolitical de-escalation.

With the US mid-term election drawing to a close, could an evolved political landscape (i) introduce heightened legislative uncertainty, (ii) reshape regulatory priorities & fiscal policies that may impact broader US market volatility and sector-specific ETF valuations ? Stay tuned ?

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• MSFT vs GOOG - AI race is "On". Who wins ?

• Do you think Big Tech's massive spending on AI infrastructure can justify current valuations if earnings continue to underwhelm and prompt further market sell-offs?

• Do you think the recent gains in commodity & energy ETFs are sustainable, or will they rapidly evaporate if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease?

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