My TMDX Forecasts to 2029
My $TransMedics Group, Inc.(TMDX)$ forecasts to 2029:
2026: $769M in revenue
2027: $1B in revenue (+31%)
-> US liver will make up ~$700M of that with heart at $154M.
2028: $1.21B (21% growth)
2029: $1.47B (21% growth) (first material bit of kidney revenue but only modelling in ~$40M).
Forecasting operating margin to be ~26% by 2029 with net margin at ~19%.
$1.47B * 19% -> $279M in net income for 2029
$279M / 42M shares -> an EPS of $6.65 (which would be 71% CAGR from 2026 to 2029).
My opinion is based on this growth and based on peers, a 20x EPS multiple would be nearer to the floor.
20x * $6.65 -> $133
30x * $6.55 -> $200
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