Weekly Outlook: $SPY
The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ saw a sharp pullback last week after a decent bounce.
On the weekly chart, price has filled the volume profile gap and is now sitting on a major 2-billion-share volume block. This is also the last short-term Smart Money Zone.
Bullish Scenario 📈
My base case is a bounce from here, followed by a move back toward all-time highs over the next 2–3 months.
The recent flush appears to have shaken out weak hands. Fundamentally, the broader market picture hasn't changed much.
Yes, $Intel(INTC)$ and $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ issued weak guidance, but leaders like $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ delivered strong guidance.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reports this week, and its results could be a major market catalyst.
As long as the daily swing low holds, I'm maintaining my bullish bias.
Bearish Scenario ⚠️
The downside risk remains unchanged.
There's a significant volume profile gap between roughly $730 and $680. If the daily swing low breaks, price could move quickly through that low-volume area, potentially falling another 6%–8% over the next two months.
That would get ugly.
The most likely catalysts would be disappointing guidance from NVIDIA or signs that semiconductor demand is slowing.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
