To The Moon

When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra

Despite recent volatility, gold historically holds its ground due to safe-haven demand, often attracting buyers during dips.

The "smart money" in ETFs that sent gold to the sky last year has become the number one seller this year. The exit of the most important driving force has directly caused gold to lose its upward momentum.

Wow so interesting k

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$  double top spotted 

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(CLmain)$  it's normal to hit 100. This way exxon Chevron $Occidental(OXY)$  $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  $CHERVON HLDGS LTD.(CHRHF)$   all will invest in Venezuela 

Hype on gold diminishes. Long term still going up, but still prefer dividend stocks.

The divergence among major banks comes down to one question: is gold still primarily a safe-haven asset, or has it become a macro trade on interest rates and the US dollar? Bullish banks argue that central bank buying, fiscal deficits, geopolitical risks, and potential future rate cuts support gold over the long term. Bearish banks focus on sticky inflation, higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and reduced safe-haven demand if global growth remains resilient. As for ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF flows are often momentum-driven and can overshoot in both directions. A 17% correction after a strong rally is painful, but not unusual for gold. That said, I would also avoid aggressively "catching the falling knife". If ETF outflows are accompanied by falling central bank d

Sell gold now. AI and data to drive new efficiencies and productivity for next 10 years. Like and follow

Major banks are split because they're focusing on different drivers. Bears: Higher real yields, resilient USD, and ETF outflows. If rates stay high, gold faces a headwind. Bulls: Central-bank buying, rising government debt, geopolitical risks, and eventual rate cuts. They see the recent correction as temporary. For ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF investors are often late to both tops and bottoms. More important is whether central banks continue accumulating. My stance: Short term: Neutral to cautious. Momentum remains weak. Long term: Moderately bullish. Strategy: Gradual accumulation rather than an all-in dip buy. The signal I'd watch is ETF outflows slowing while central-bank demand stays strong. If that happens, the current correction may look more like a reset than

The divergence among banks is not really about gold itself. It is about which macro force they think will dominate. Bullish banks such as [J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices?utm_source=chatgpt.com), UBS and ANZ are focused on: Continued central bank buying Geopolitical fragmentation Fiscal debt concerns and de-dollarisation Potential Fed easing later in the cycle More cautious houses such as Macquarie and some Morgan Stanley analysts are focused on: Higher real yields Stronger USD ETF outflows Positioning excess after a massive multi-year rally  The key point is that gold's recent decline does not automatically invalidate the long-term bull case. Gold peaked near US$5,300-5,600 before correcting roughly 15-18%, which is painful but n

Peaceful $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$  

Gold "chain drops" or "rebounds" not big news. Used to reading news of US and Iran 'progressing' to deal but there are still sticky points to be worked out before agreement can be reached. May not time to buy the dip yet as high inflation may lead to rate hikes.

Looks like it will not fall into bearish conditions though. But the biggest culprit for gold being sold likely is the expectations of rising interest rates in USA Just as stated, questions of fed independence makes this a funny proposition. Does Warsh do the correct thing to try and halt the impact of inflation, or does his spine liquefy and maintains (or decreases, as prez Trunp keeps asking for) interest rates [Surprised]

Divergence among banks is modest. Most (JPM, GS, Wells Fargo, UBS, BofA) remain strongly bullish on gold, targeting $5,000–$6,300+ by end-2026 on central bank buying, diversification, and geopolitics—despite JPM trimming its 2026 average slightly. On ETF outflows: Contrarian buyer. Western profit-taking and rebalancing created a dip, but structural drivers (reserves, uncertainty) persist while Asia counters. Long-term bullish.

Doesn’t matter much for a long term investor, ignore the noise, focus on the fundamentals and dca in long term

I definitely agree that the price is a pause. For those who bought etf gold to cash out their profits and replenish more for the next bull wave. Be sure to give it time. It will react with certainty.

🌟🌟🌟Spot Gold prices have taken a dip with higher US treasury yields  and stronger US dollar.  Is it time to buy the dip? Yes as elite institutions are quietly exploiting the dip.  Just this week UBS adjusted its year end gold price target to USD 5,500, citing that Gold's long term structural bull case remains entirely intact.  It regards higher bond yields as a short term cyclical headwind. Not all central banks are selling gold. China and India are still buying Gold to de-risk their sovereign reserves. I would continue to hold $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ instead of $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ as it has a lower expense ratio of 0.25% compared to GLD's 0.40%.  However for traders, they wou

this is opportunities! every drop just dca. inflation will answer everything later!

now buy. gold hit support

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When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra

Despite recent volatility, gold historically holds its ground due to safe-haven demand, often attracting buyers during dips.

The "smart money" in ETFs that sent gold to the sky last year has become the number one seller this year. The exit of the most important driving force has directly caused gold to lose its upward momentum.

Wow so interesting k

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$  double top spotted 

$WTI Crude Oil - main 2607(CLmain)$  it's normal to hit 100. This way exxon Chevron $Occidental(OXY)$  $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$  $CHERVON HLDGS LTD.(CHRHF)$   all will invest in Venezuela 

The divergence among major banks comes down to one question: is gold still primarily a safe-haven asset, or has it become a macro trade on interest rates and the US dollar? Bullish banks argue that central bank buying, fiscal deficits, geopolitical risks, and potential future rate cuts support gold over the long term. Bearish banks focus on sticky inflation, higher real yields, a stronger dollar, and reduced safe-haven demand if global growth remains resilient. As for ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF flows are often momentum-driven and can overshoot in both directions. A 17% correction after a strong rally is painful, but not unusual for gold. That said, I would also avoid aggressively "catching the falling knife". If ETF outflows are accompanied by falling central bank d

Hype on gold diminishes. Long term still going up, but still prefer dividend stocks.

On May 28, $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$briefly fell to $4,366/oz, a single heavy blow that sent it to its lowest point in nearly two months. Since the Iran war broke out at the end of February, gold has cumulatively fallen more than 17% in just three months, almost completely wiping out all of this year's gains. The more frantically people rushed to buy gold last year, the more painful being trapped is now. Who Is the "Super Seller" Behind This? According to more comprehensive data from the World Gold Council (WGC), global central bank gold purchases in Q1 this year actually reached as high as 244 tonnes! Central banks remain the most solid "foundation." So who is selling like crazy? The answer is: trend-driven outflows from glo

Gold has always been one of the most attractive assets for traders and investors. During periods of inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, banking instability, or weakness in the US Dollar, traders often rush toward gold as a safe-haven asset. This continuous flow of fear and greed creates strong price swings that make gold one of the best instruments for technical analysis. However, gold is also highly volatile. Many traders lose money because they enter too early, trade emotionally, or fail to understand market cycles. This is where Elliott Wave Theory becomes extremely valuable. Elliott Wave Theory helps traders understand how markets move in repeating cycles driven by human psychology. Instead of reacting emotionally to news headlines, traders can use wave structures, Fibonacci retraceme

Over the weekend, there were frequent positive signals from the U.S.–Iran peace negotiations. If an agreement is reached, the reopening of the Strait could be imminent. As discussed in last week’s live session, the core sticking point in current negotiations lies in uranium enrichment. The U.S. is seeking Iran’s commitment to abandon uranium enrichment before lifting sanctions, while Iran prefers that sanctions be lifted first before addressing enrichment. If this divergence can be reconciled, negotiations could accelerate; otherwise, entrenched positions on both sides may stall or even derail the process. Recent developments appear favorable for the reopening of the Strait, which is likely to trigger a notable shift in market positioning next week. 1. Direct Impact on Crude Oil There is l

Following Trump’s announcement over the weekend that the United States is close to reaching an agreement with Iran, oil prices naturally opened with another gap lower at the start of the week. The overall trajectory of geopolitical developments is consistent with what we anticipated in April, and this phase of relative peace is likely to last through the period around the midterm elections toward year-end. Although both technicals and news flow have dealt a double blow to the market, the structural issues in the Middle East will not be fundamentally resolved as a result. Therefore, if oil prices undergo a sufficient pullback going forward, lower levels should still provide solid support. In addition, changes on the news front are unlikely to alter the broader trends of most asset classes;

On May 28, 2026, gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating around $4,373, exhibiting a clear short-term accelerated decline. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ Technical Analysis: 1. Clear Bearish Pattern and Breakout From the candlestick chart you provided (with moving average indicators), we can see: Accelerated Breakout: Gold prices previously traded in a narrow rectangular range around $4,500 for a period. However, recently, the candlestick broke through the previous key support level and broke through the psychological level of $4,400 with consecutive large bearish candlesticks. Moving Average Resistance: The red moving averages (MA) in the cha

International news developments: The short-term trajectory of gold is currently caught between two opposing forces—the expectation of significant easing in the Middle East's geopolitical tensions and the persistent hawkish narrative from the Federal Reserve. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$ 1. Key bearish factor: U.S.-Iran financial asset agreement reached, reducing geopolitical risk aversion Significant progress: According to the latest reports, with Qatar’s mediation, the United States and Iran have reached an understanding regarding Iran’s frozen financial assets. Markets widely expect both sides to formally announce the deal within the next one or two

The divergence among banks is not really about gold itself. It is about which macro force they think will dominate. Bullish banks such as [J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices?utm_source=chatgpt.com), UBS and ANZ are focused on: Continued central bank buying Geopolitical fragmentation Fiscal debt concerns and de-dollarisation Potential Fed easing later in the cycle More cautious houses such as Macquarie and some Morgan Stanley analysts are focused on: Higher real yields Stronger USD ETF outflows Positioning excess after a massive multi-year rally  The key point is that gold's recent decline does not automatically invalidate the long-term bull case. Gold peaked near US$5,300-5,600 before correcting roughly 15-18%, which is painful but n

I see the gold pullback as a rotation and liquidity-driven correction, not a structural breakdown. ETF outflows reversing last year’s inflows explain much of the weakness, while central bank buying still supports the long-term floor. On bank views, I sit between extremes: JPMorgan’s $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ bullish long-term debasement case versus Citi’s $Citigroup(C)$ near-term caution from rates and AI-driven risk-on flows. I’m cautious short term but not bearish on the broader cycle. For ETF flows, I wouldn’t follow the selling, but I also woul

🌟🌟🌟Spot Gold prices have taken a dip with higher US treasury yields  and stronger US dollar.  Is it time to buy the dip? Yes as elite institutions are quietly exploiting the dip.  Just this week UBS adjusted its year end gold price target to USD 5,500, citing that Gold's long term structural bull case remains entirely intact.  It regards higher bond yields as a short term cyclical headwind. Not all central banks are selling gold. China and India are still buying Gold to de-risk their sovereign reserves. I would continue to hold $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ instead of $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ as it has a lower expense ratio of 0.25% compared to GLD's 0.40%.  However for traders, they wou

Major banks are split because they're focusing on different drivers. Bears: Higher real yields, resilient USD, and ETF outflows. If rates stay high, gold faces a headwind. Bulls: Central-bank buying, rising government debt, geopolitical risks, and eventual rate cuts. They see the recent correction as temporary. For ETF outflows, I would not blindly follow them. ETF investors are often late to both tops and bottoms. More important is whether central banks continue accumulating. My stance: Short term: Neutral to cautious. Momentum remains weak. Long term: Moderately bullish. Strategy: Gradual accumulation rather than an all-in dip buy. The signal I'd watch is ETF outflows slowing while central-bank demand stays strong. If that happens, the current correction may look more like a reset than

Divergence among banks is modest. Most (JPM, GS, Wells Fargo, UBS, BofA) remain strongly bullish on gold, targeting $5,000–$6,300+ by end-2026 on central bank buying, diversification, and geopolitics—despite JPM trimming its 2026 average slightly. On ETF outflows: Contrarian buyer. Western profit-taking and rebalancing created a dip, but structural drivers (reserves, uncertainty) persist while Asia counters. Long-term bullish.

Looks like it will not fall into bearish conditions though. But the biggest culprit for gold being sold likely is the expectations of rising interest rates in USA Just as stated, questions of fed independence makes this a funny proposition. Does Warsh do the correct thing to try and halt the impact of inflation, or does his spine liquefy and maintains (or decreases, as prez Trunp keeps asking for) interest rates [Surprised]