To The Moon

$CBRS 20261016 215.0 CALL$ sold a call on the day CEO Sam Altman publicly called Cerebras a "close partner". Price surged 9.08%

$TSM$  gogogo Tan long term position is strong short term correction is chance

BUY $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$   🚀 

Recently, China Merchants Group, one of China’s leading diversified central state-owned enterprises, entered into a formal partnership with YXT.com Group Holding Limited ( $云学堂(YXT)$ ) to jointly develop the training module of the Group’s intelligent human resources system. The initiative will cover the Group headquarters and 25 second-tier subsidiaries, serving more than 300,000 employees, with a focus on training management, resource coordination, and AI-enabled talent development. For a large enterprise group with diverse businesses, a vast workforce, and a complex organizational structure, the challenge of talent development goes far beyond simply providing courses. The more important question is how to enable knowledge, experience, and capabil

I’d rather own the index here. The handful of mega-cap leaders may continue outperforming, but buying them after a strong run means accepting much greater concentration and valuation risk. If earnings or guidance disappoint, the same stocks carrying the market could also lead the correction. An index lets me participate in the AI and tech rally while retaining exposure to financials, industrials, healthcare and other sectors that could take over leadership if the rally broadens. I wouldn’t completely avoid the winners, but I prefer them as part of a diversified portfolio rather than making a concentrated bet. At record highs, diversification may look boring, but I’m happy to trade some upside for less single-stock risk. 📈

For now, I’d call it a headline running ahead of the order. Musk confirmed that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, but there is still no disclosed contract value, capacity commitment or firm timeline. That makes TSMC’s record high partly a bet on what the relationship could become rather than revenue already secured. That said, I can understand why the market likes TSMC here. If Terafab needs enormous leading-edge capacity, TSMC is difficult to avoid. Even a multi-foundry strategy could leave it as a major beneficiary. Intel is the more interesting side of the trade. Musk previously said Terafab planned to use Intel 14A, so bringing TSMC into the discussion weakens the idea that Intel has a privileged position. My verdict: positive signal for TSMC, negative negotiating signal for Intel,

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes: The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage): Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.   TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth: Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.   Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules: Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconduc

just invest in s&p 500, buy when it drop or crash.. [Smile]

MNGA

I would rather own the index while selectively holding the strongest names. The Nasdaq hitting a record shows strong tech leadership, but the narrow market also means higher concentration risk. I am still bullish on the long-term AI trend, but I do not want to chase momentum blindly. I am watching semiconductors and AI infrastructure closely, but I prefer confirmation over headlines. I would rather wait for pullbacks and scale in gradually than make a large move after a strong rally. My approach remains DCA and adding gradually. The market can stay strong even when leadership is narrow, but I want to see broader participation before becoming more aggressive. For me, consistency and patience matter more than catching every short-term move.

Invest in TSMC good company

The Terafab headline looks bullish for TSMC and uncomfortable for Intel. But I think the market may be simplifying the story too much. TSMC closed at a record $485.80, up 2.75%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is in early discussions with TSMC regarding his enormous Terafab chip-manufacturing ambition. Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. SpaceX jumped 7.63% to $171.09. The immediate interpretation is obvious: TSMC wins. Intel loses. Musk gets his chips. I think reality is more interesting. Terafab could become so enormous that the ultimate winner isn't necessarily whichever foundry gets the project. It could be the company that becomes indispensable to the entire ecosystem. And right now, that still looks like TSMC. What Musk Actually Confirmed Terafab is Musk's vision for semiconductor manu

I’d take the index here. The big names may keep leading, but the concentration adds risk. Owning the index gives exposure to the leaders while still leaving room to benefit if market breadth improves

I’d still take the index. If the market leaders keep delivering strong earnings, the index benefits — and if leadership broadens out, even better. The bigger question now is whether the rally can spread beyond the usual names.

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  didn’t need a signed Terafab contract to get Wall Street’s attention. After Elon Musk confirmed that TSMC is in discussions around the massive chip project, TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80. At the same time, Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. That divergence is what makes this story interesting. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner for Musk’s Terafab plans, with Musk saying the project would use Intel’s 14A process. Now TSMC is part of the conversation. But here’s the important distinction: TSMC is not replacing Intel — at least not based on what has been confirmed. Musk has described the TSMC discussions as preliminary, and there is no disclosed contract, order size,

One headline. Three very different market reactions. TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions are underway with TSMC around the proposed Terafab project. SpaceX surged 7.63% to $171.09. And Intel? Down 2.63% to $116.19 — the clear semiconductor laggard. That reaction tells an interesting story. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner connected to Musk’s chip ambitions. Now that TSMC is reportedly part of the conversation, investors appear to be reassessing just how much of that potential opportunity Intel can ultimately capture. But there’s another side to this trade. If Terafab requires leading-edge manufacturing capacity, TSMC could potentially benefit regardless of exactly how the final partnership is structured. That exp

[Love] [Shy]  

July 2036 portfolio gained SGD45000 or 8.3%. Dividend collection is SGD14000 year to date. During the dot-com crash of 2000, Berkshire Hathaway surged over 26% while the tech-heavy NASDAQ plummeted nearly 40%. This period perfectly illustrates "Berkshire Time"—a phenomenon where conservative, value-driven strategies shine while speculative markets crumble. My core portfolio mirrors this defensive philosophy, focusing heavily on Singapore (SG) and Hong Kong (HK) dividend-paying blue chips. To add a bit of growth potential, I maintain a smaller satellite portfolio dedicated to deeply discounted Hang Seng TECH (HS Tech) stocks. While this value-and-yield approach frequently lags behind during aggressive, growth-fueled market rallies, it proved its worth this month by successfully beating the

brc

$CBRS 20261016 215.0 CALL$ sold a call on the day CEO Sam Altman publicly called Cerebras a "close partner". Price surged 9.08%

Recently, China Merchants Group, one of China’s leading diversified central state-owned enterprises, entered into a formal partnership with YXT.com Group Holding Limited ( $云学堂(YXT)$ ) to jointly develop the training module of the Group’s intelligent human resources system. The initiative will cover the Group headquarters and 25 second-tier subsidiaries, serving more than 300,000 employees, with a focus on training management, resource coordination, and AI-enabled talent development. For a large enterprise group with diverse businesses, a vast workforce, and a complex organizational structure, the challenge of talent development goes far beyond simply providing courses. The more important question is how to enable knowledge, experience, and capabil

The Terafab headline looks bullish for TSMC and uncomfortable for Intel. But I think the market may be simplifying the story too much. TSMC closed at a record $485.80, up 2.75%, after Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla is in early discussions with TSMC regarding his enormous Terafab chip-manufacturing ambition. Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. SpaceX jumped 7.63% to $171.09. The immediate interpretation is obvious: TSMC wins. Intel loses. Musk gets his chips. I think reality is more interesting. Terafab could become so enormous that the ultimate winner isn't necessarily whichever foundry gets the project. It could be the company that becomes indispensable to the entire ecosystem. And right now, that still looks like TSMC. What Musk Actually Confirmed Terafab is Musk's vision for semiconductor manu

$TSM$  gogogo Tan long term position is strong short term correction is chance

The indices: the Nasdaq set a record close, the Dow did not follow The three indices pulled apart on Monday: the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Composite rose 1.05 per cent to 27,477.31, a record close for it, having reached 27,544.06 at its intraday peak; the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 0.66 per cent to 7,773.95, still shy of its own record close by less than 0.6 per cent; and the $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ Industrial Average added just 0.18 per cent to 51,267.90. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.31 per cent, three basis points above Friday. Put those three together and what made the high was not the breadth of the market but a handfu

BUY $KUAISHOU-W(01024)$   🚀 

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$  didn’t need a signed Terafab contract to get Wall Street’s attention. After Elon Musk confirmed that TSMC is in discussions around the massive chip project, TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80. At the same time, Intel fell 2.63% to $116.19. That divergence is what makes this story interesting. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner for Musk’s Terafab plans, with Musk saying the project would use Intel’s 14A process. Now TSMC is part of the conversation. But here’s the important distinction: TSMC is not replacing Intel — at least not based on what has been confirmed. Musk has described the TSMC discussions as preliminary, and there is no disclosed contract, order size,

Here is my personal take on whats actually happening behind the scenes: The Classic Elon Playbook (Maximum Leverage): Whenever Musk publicly anchors to a sole supplier, the clock starts ticking. Confirming talks with TSMC isn't just curiosity; it’s ruthless leverage. It signals to Intel: Deliver top-tier yields and aggressive wafer pricing, or watch the volume walk.   TSMC Is the Unavoidable Tollbooth: Bulls are right on the money here. Whether it’s custom silicon for autonomous fleets, high-throughput satellite comms, or Terafab scale, advanced packaging (CoWoS) and sub-3nm volume still lead back to TSMC. In the AI hardware gold rush, TSMC owns the pickaxes.   Bears Have a Point, but Sentiment Rules: Yes, a conversation is not a signed purchase order. But in semiconduc

For now, I’d call it a headline running ahead of the order. Musk confirmed that TSMC and Terafab are in discussions, but there is still no disclosed contract value, capacity commitment or firm timeline. That makes TSMC’s record high partly a bet on what the relationship could become rather than revenue already secured. That said, I can understand why the market likes TSMC here. If Terafab needs enormous leading-edge capacity, TSMC is difficult to avoid. Even a multi-foundry strategy could leave it as a major beneficiary. Intel is the more interesting side of the trade. Musk previously said Terafab planned to use Intel 14A, so bringing TSMC into the discussion weakens the idea that Intel has a privileged position. My verdict: positive signal for TSMC, negative negotiating signal for Intel,

One headline. Three very different market reactions. TSMC jumped 2.75% to a record $485.80 after Elon Musk confirmed that discussions are underway with TSMC around the proposed Terafab project. SpaceX surged 7.63% to $171.09. And Intel? Down 2.63% to $116.19 — the clear semiconductor laggard. That reaction tells an interesting story. Intel had previously been the only publicly named foundry partner connected to Musk’s chip ambitions. Now that TSMC is reportedly part of the conversation, investors appear to be reassessing just how much of that potential opportunity Intel can ultimately capture. But there’s another side to this trade. If Terafab requires leading-edge manufacturing capacity, TSMC could potentially benefit regardless of exactly how the final partnership is structured. That exp

I’d rather own the index here. The handful of mega-cap leaders may continue outperforming, but buying them after a strong run means accepting much greater concentration and valuation risk. If earnings or guidance disappoint, the same stocks carrying the market could also lead the correction. An index lets me participate in the AI and tech rally while retaining exposure to financials, industrials, healthcare and other sectors that could take over leadership if the rally broadens. I wouldn’t completely avoid the winners, but I prefer them as part of a diversified portfolio rather than making a concentrated bet. At record highs, diversification may look boring, but I’m happy to trade some upside for less single-stock risk. 📈

I would rather own the index while selectively holding the strongest names. The Nasdaq hitting a record shows strong tech leadership, but the narrow market also means higher concentration risk. I am still bullish on the long-term AI trend, but I do not want to chase momentum blindly. I am watching semiconductors and AI infrastructure closely, but I prefer confirmation over headlines. I would rather wait for pullbacks and scale in gradually than make a large move after a strong rally. My approach remains DCA and adding gradually. The market can stay strong even when leadership is narrow, but I want to see broader participation before becoming more aggressive. For me, consistency and patience matter more than catching every short-term move.

just invest in s&p 500, buy when it drop or crash.. [Smile]

MNGA

I’d still take the index. If the market leaders keep delivering strong earnings, the index benefits — and if leadership broadens out, even better. The bigger question now is whether the rally can spread beyond the usual names.

I’d take the index here. The big names may keep leading, but the concentration adds risk. Owning the index gives exposure to the leaders while still leaving room to benefit if market breadth improves

Invest in TSMC good company

[Love] [Shy]  

🎓 Macquarie Warrants 101 – What I Learned After Receiving a S$20 Seminar Voucher Congratulations on receiving the S$20 Macquarie Stock Cash Voucher after attending the seminar! It is a nice way to encourage participants to learn about structured warrants before trading. ⸻ 🌟 Some Popular Macquarie Warrants Macquarie issues warrants on many well-known stocks and indices. Popular examples include: * Alibaba – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. JCJW Put) * BYD – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. OPCW Call) * Hang Seng Index (HSI) – Call and Put Warrants * Nasdaq-100 – Call Warrants (e.g. EFKW) * Nikkei 225 – Call and Put Warrants (e.g. YHSW) * Meituan * Tencent * Xiaomi * Bilibili These are among the more actively followed Macquarie warrants on SGX. ⸻ 📈 How Do Call Warrants Work? A Call Warrant is generall

Takeaways Q1 revenue rose 22%, while operating income grew 30%. Cloud revenue grew 63% and margin reached 32.9%. Search revenue rose 19%, with a lower traffic acquisition cost ratio. Q1 capex consumed 78% of operating cash flow. Forward P/E is about 24.6 times, while free cash flow yield is only 1.5%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ reports second quarter results after the close on July 22. Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $116.9 billion, up 21.3% year over year, with EPS of $2.90. That EPS will look much lower than the $5.11 reported in Q1. The comparison is misleading. Equity investment gains added $28.7 billion to Q1 net income and $2.35 to EPS. I would strip those gains out and concentrate on operating income, free cash flow and the gro