Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
After a turbulent start to the year, markets have shown signs of recovery, with major indices bouncing off recent lows. Investors are now asking: is this the beginning of a sustained rally, or just another temporary relief bounce before further downside? What’s Driving the Rebound? Several factors have contributed to the recent market strength, including cooling inflation data, resilient corporate earnings, and hopes that central banks may ease their tightening policies. Let’s break down the key drivers: 1. Inflation Cooling, Fed Pivot Hopes? Inflation has been a dominant force in the market’s volatility over the past year. Recent data suggests that price pressures may be easing, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks could soon pause or even pivot on inter
1. Business Performance & Capital Allocation • 📌 Focus on Return on Equity (ROE), not just earnings per share. • 💰 Every $1 of retained earnings should generate at least $1 in market value. • 🎯 Rational capital allocation for long-term gains. 2. Insurance Business Insights • 🏦 Insurance float as a source of cheap investment capital. • ⚠️ Underwriting discipline is key—avoid underpricing risks. • 📊 Risk-based pricing to ensure profitability. 3. Stock Market & Investment Philosophy • ⏳ Long-term investing beats short-term speculation. • 📉 Market fluctuations create opportunities, not risks. • 🏛️ Invest in strong businesses at reasonable prices. 4. Focus on Economic Moats • 🚧 Competitive advantages matter (brand strength, pricing power, low capital needs). • ⚒️ Avoid industries with h
Fed Rate Decision Looms—Will the Fed Hold Steady or Surprise Markets?
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its two-day policy meeting on March 18-19, 2025, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s next move. With the interest rate decision and accompanying statements set to drop on March 19, investors, analysts, and policymakers are parsing the latest data for clues. Here’s what we know as of March 17, 2025, about the meeting, the expectations, and what a surprise could mean for markets. The Latest on the Fed’s March Meeting The FOMC meeting is underway, but no official hints have leaked yet—it’s business as usual for now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have kept their cards close, stressing a cautious stance in recent weeks. With a strong economy, a robust labor market, and inflation still hovering above the Fed’s 2% target, th
Last week's unusual volume selloff in $Apple(AAPL)$ is also now down to last July's levels.While there is some degree of skepticism about the reduction (liquidation) of positions by LO investors such as Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ this can only be verified in next quarter's 13F.Fundamentally several events affecting the medium term are enough to change investor expectations.Apple Intellegence delayMany of Siri's new features, such as analyzing screen content and controlling apps with precision, were shown off at WWDC, listing them as selling points for the iPhone 16 and putting them into a marketing push, but the features shown off were only "half-finished prototypes."However, the original
It's difficult to say for sure whether the current stability in the stock market will persist. Stock market trends can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, interest rates, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. If you're seeing stability in the short term, it could be due to a number of factors like positive economic indicators or easing concerns about things like inflation or a potential recession. However, markets are inherently volatile, and new information or events could quickly alter the outlook.
Hi everyone, it’s been a while! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publicatio
Market Rebound: Is the Short-Term Stability Here to Stay?
After a brutal Black Monday, the market has rebounded, bringing temporary relief to investors. But the big question remains—is this rebound sustainable, or just a temporary pause before another downturn? While it’s possible that stocks will continue to recover after falling so much, there’s also a real risk that the decline isn’t over. The future direction of the market remains uncertain and will depend on several key factors, including broader economic conditions, geopolitical developments, and major news events like tariffs or monetary policy changes. Uncertainty Remains: Factors That Could Influence the Market 1. Economic Conditions The stock market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic indicators. If economic data shows signs of slowing growth, rising inflation, or weakening consumer
So I've been picking up $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ And $Redwire Corp.(RDW)$ And $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ Plus options in $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$. So yes im bottom feeding, picking up growth stocks at prices I consider bargains. But are they bargains? Well to answer this question you need to understand risk versus volatility. Risk is the extent to which you buy what you believe is a great stock at a decent price and it doesn't deliver. So it goes down because its fundamentals change and its no longer a great stock to own. But if the fundamentals remain unchanged, growth in revenue going forward, profits etc all rema
For the longest time, U.S. stocks have led the global markets, and no group has felt this more acutely than China stock investors since 2021, as China stocks have severely underperformed U.S. stocks. But that’s changing—at least in 2025 so far, the tide has turned. The MSCI China Index has gained 18.7%, while the S&P 500 is down 4.6%. The key question now: Can this China stock outperformance last? History has shown that China stocks can surge rapidly, only to experience sharp declines. And with the U.S. stock market still the global leader, any major shock in the U.S. is likely to ripple across world markets, including China. we believe that there is a real chance that China stocks could continue to perform well, even if U.S. stocks struggle. Shifting market cycles, valuation re-rating
Market Rebounds After a Blood Black Monday: Is the Market Stable Now?
The financial markets experienced a dramatic rollercoaster last week, with a sharp sell-off on what has been dubbed "Blood Black Monday," followed by a notable rebound in the Nasdaq 100 ( $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ ) and broader indices. As of March 16, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 Index closed at 19,704.64, marking a recovery of +479.15 or +2.49% from its recent lows, as depicted in the latest chart. This resurgence comes after a double-top formation and a subsequent break below the neckline at 19,706.64, raising questions about the market's stability. With the Trump administration settling into its early policy framework, positive economic data, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, investors are left wondering: is the market on solid ground, or is this j
After a turbulent start to the year, markets have shown signs of recovery, with major indices bouncing off recent lows. Investors are now asking: is this the beginning of a sustained rally, or just another temporary relief bounce before further downside? What’s Driving the Rebound? Several factors have contributed to the recent market strength, including cooling inflation data, resilient corporate earnings, and hopes that central banks may ease their tightening policies. Let’s break down the key drivers: 1. Inflation Cooling, Fed Pivot Hopes? Inflation has been a dominant force in the market’s volatility over the past year. Recent data suggests that price pressures may be easing, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks could soon pause or even pivot on inter
Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended
Fed Rate Decision Looms—Will the Fed Hold Steady or Surprise Markets?
As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its two-day policy meeting on March 18-19, 2025, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s next move. With the interest rate decision and accompanying statements set to drop on March 19, investors, analysts, and policymakers are parsing the latest data for clues. Here’s what we know as of March 17, 2025, about the meeting, the expectations, and what a surprise could mean for markets. The Latest on the Fed’s March Meeting The FOMC meeting is underway, but no official hints have leaked yet—it’s business as usual for now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have kept their cards close, stressing a cautious stance in recent weeks. With a strong economy, a robust labor market, and inflation still hovering above the Fed’s 2% target, th
Last week's unusual volume selloff in $Apple(AAPL)$ is also now down to last July's levels.While there is some degree of skepticism about the reduction (liquidation) of positions by LO investors such as Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.B)$ this can only be verified in next quarter's 13F.Fundamentally several events affecting the medium term are enough to change investor expectations.Apple Intellegence delayMany of Siri's new features, such as analyzing screen content and controlling apps with precision, were shown off at WWDC, listing them as selling points for the iPhone 16 and putting them into a marketing push, but the features shown off were only "half-finished prototypes."However, the original
Hi everyone, it’s been a while! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publicatio
1. Business Performance & Capital Allocation • 📌 Focus on Return on Equity (ROE), not just earnings per share. • 💰 Every $1 of retained earnings should generate at least $1 in market value. • 🎯 Rational capital allocation for long-term gains. 2. Insurance Business Insights • 🏦 Insurance float as a source of cheap investment capital. • ⚠️ Underwriting discipline is key—avoid underpricing risks. • 📊 Risk-based pricing to ensure profitability. 3. Stock Market & Investment Philosophy • ⏳ Long-term investing beats short-term speculation. • 📉 Market fluctuations create opportunities, not risks. • 🏛️ Invest in strong businesses at reasonable prices. 4. Focus on Economic Moats • 🚧 Competitive advantages matter (brand strength, pricing power, low capital needs). • ⚒️ Avoid industries with h
Market Rebound: Is the Short-Term Stability Here to Stay?
After a brutal Black Monday, the market has rebounded, bringing temporary relief to investors. But the big question remains—is this rebound sustainable, or just a temporary pause before another downturn? While it’s possible that stocks will continue to recover after falling so much, there’s also a real risk that the decline isn’t over. The future direction of the market remains uncertain and will depend on several key factors, including broader economic conditions, geopolitical developments, and major news events like tariffs or monetary policy changes. Uncertainty Remains: Factors That Could Influence the Market 1. Economic Conditions The stock market is heavily influenced by macroeconomic indicators. If economic data shows signs of slowing growth, rising inflation, or weakening consumer
So I've been picking up $Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ And $Redwire Corp.(RDW)$ And $Archer Aviation Inc.(ACHR)$ Plus options in $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$. So yes im bottom feeding, picking up growth stocks at prices I consider bargains. But are they bargains? Well to answer this question you need to understand risk versus volatility. Risk is the extent to which you buy what you believe is a great stock at a decent price and it doesn't deliver. So it goes down because its fundamentals change and its no longer a great stock to own. But if the fundamentals remain unchanged, growth in revenue going forward, profits etc all rema
Market Rebounds After a Blood Black Monday: Is the Market Stable Now?
The financial markets experienced a dramatic rollercoaster last week, with a sharp sell-off on what has been dubbed "Blood Black Monday," followed by a notable rebound in the Nasdaq 100 ( $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ ) and broader indices. As of March 16, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 Index closed at 19,704.64, marking a recovery of +479.15 or +2.49% from its recent lows, as depicted in the latest chart. This resurgence comes after a double-top formation and a subsequent break below the neckline at 19,706.64, raising questions about the market's stability. With the Trump administration settling into its early policy framework, positive economic data, and a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, investors are left wondering: is the market on solid ground, or is this j
S&P 500 Enters CORRECTION. Do You Buy Now Or Wait?
S&P 500 has officially entered correction territory coming down 10% off its recent highs. We also saw the QQQ are now down about 14% from their recent highs, this is despite we have a very decent piece of data, we have more than favorable producer numbers here in terms of inflation month over month came in at zero compared to 0.3%. This was a lot better than expected, on the year-over-year, PPI came in at 3.2 compared to 3.3 (estimate). In terms of core, we are actually deflationary month over month which is 0.1% to the downside, instead of the 3% expected and 3.4 on the core on year-over-year. The initial jobless claims were less than the anticipated amount, this prove to be not enough, yesterday’s CPI was also not enough to bring up the markets. The market went down after tariff news
US Stocks: Short-Term Buying Opportunity, but Medium-Term Outlook Remains Concerning
By Bo Pei，US Tiger ResearchI didn’t write my Market Commentary for the first three days of this week—partly because I felt the timing wasn’t right yet (the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ hadn’t dropped 10%) and partly because I was taking time to think and analyze how this market downturn might play out.To get straight to the point: in the short term, I believe this could be a good opportunity to buy the dip in U.S. equities, as the market is likely to see a rebound. However, the medium-term outlook (over the next few months) remains concerning.Short-Term OutlookHere’s why I think a short-term rebound is likely. First, let’s look at historical probabilities.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has now declined 10% from its recen
For the longest time, U.S. stocks have led the global markets, and no group has felt this more acutely than China stock investors since 2021, as China stocks have severely underperformed U.S. stocks. But that’s changing—at least in 2025 so far, the tide has turned. The MSCI China Index has gained 18.7%, while the S&P 500 is down 4.6%. The key question now: Can this China stock outperformance last? History has shown that China stocks can surge rapidly, only to experience sharp declines. And with the U.S. stock market still the global leader, any major shock in the U.S. is likely to ripple across world markets, including China. we believe that there is a real chance that China stocks could continue to perform well, even if U.S. stocks struggle. Shifting market cycles, valuation re-rating
Recently, U.S. stocks have experienced a sharp correction, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ index falling more than 10% from its peak, officially entering a technical correction phase. The $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ has declined even further, dropping over 14%. Does this rapid adjustment indicate a shift in market sentiment towards a bear market, or does it present a valuable buying opportunity? For investors, the current market environment allows for effective participation in index rebounds through options strategies while maintaining risk control. This article will explore several options strategies suitable for going long on indices in today’s market.Market Analysis: Is the Correction a Buying Opportunity?Historica
It's difficult to say for sure whether the current stability in the stock market will persist. Stock market trends can be influenced by a wide range of factors, including economic data, geopolitical events, interest rates, corporate earnings, and investor sentiment. If you're seeing stability in the short term, it could be due to a number of factors like positive economic indicators or easing concerns about things like inflation or a potential recession. However, markets are inherently volatile, and new information or events could quickly alter the outlook.
After weeks of volatility, the market is showing signs of stabilization. But is this rebound sustainable, or just a temporary relief before another downturn? Here’s what investors should watch: 1. Economic Indicators Matter Key economic data, including inflation rates, job reports, and GDP growth, will play a crucial role in determining if the market can maintain stability. A slowing economy or persistent inflation could derail the current rebound. 2. Earnings Season Will Set the Tone Corporate earnings reports provide insights into business resilience. If companies continue to post strong revenue and profitability, it could reinforce market confidence. However, downward guidance from major players could trigger renewed selling pressure. 3. Federal Reserve’s Next Moves The Fed’s stance on