To The Moon

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

The January FOMC minutes (released February 2026) have indeed injected a dose of cold water into the market's "rate cut fever." While the S&P 500 has shown incredible resilience, the shift from a nearly guaranteed June cut to a "divided Fed" suggests a transition from a momentum-driven rally to a data-dependent one. Here is how the S&P 500 is likely to navigate this shift: S&P 500 Reaction: Gains vs. Profit Taking Historically, the S&P 500 can handle a "hawkish pause" as long as economic growth remains solid. However, the minutes revealed that the Fed is now prioritizing stability over speed. The "No Landing" Support: The market is currently buoyed by a "no landing" narrative—where the economy remains strong enough to avoid recession even with higher rates. This has helped

I think that rate cut by June, S&P 500 has room to run, but I don't expect a straight line up. Here's the honest take. Fed fund futures now price nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps cut by mid-year, driven by January CPI dropping to 2.4% — the lowest in nearly five years. That's a meaningful shift in market expectations, and equity markets love that kind of certainty. But history tells us the setup is more nuanced than just "rate cut = stocks go up." Yes, lower rates reduce borrowing costs, expand multiples, and lift risk appetite. Goldman Sachs sees US growth accelerating to 2–2.5% in 2026, and corporate earnings remain resilient — a goldilocks mix of benign inflation, lower rates, and growing profits. CNN That combination historically supports S&P 500 upside. The catch? Three thi

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

Yes, the softer January CPI meaningfully raises the probability of rate cuts, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained equity rally. The market reaction depends on why inflation is cooling and what it implies for growth. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but cautiously. January CPI rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are easing. Markets immediately pulled forward easing expectations, with Treasury yields falling and traders increasing bets on Fed cuts later this year.  Key implications: Cooling inflation reduces the Fed’s need to keep policy restrictive. Futures markets now price meaningful probability of cuts beginning around mid-year. Bond markets reacted first: short-term Treasury yields dec

Yes - in market pricing and sentiment. Market pricing (Fed funds futures / option-implied probabilities) has shifted noticeably toward earlier and/or more cuts later this year after CPI came in below expectations: headline inflation at ~2,4% YoY and a weaker monthly print. Traders have increased the odds of a June rate cut, with some pricing in a ~50-80% chance of at least one cut by mid-year.

Nasdaq will drop around 5-10% 🎉🎉🎉

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting below the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a bearish trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently regis

Yes. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  it's the last hooray.  Come on. Buy now and celebrate later

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

This anxiety is spreading from traditional software into the $10 trillion information services market, including finance, real estate, logistics, and law. If $700 billion in annual AI investment starts disrupting these sectors, the consequences are real

The switch from AI-Euphoria to AI-phobia is not new as we have seen the same trick last year while Deep Seek was paraded as the bogeyman. It's the convenient excuse to peg a time to take a pause and lock in the profits when the naive retail investors catches the falling knifes. I believe a new narrative will emerge soon that the tech giants are in-fact already in the game or that the new kids on the block are being acquired under their fold. What can't be solved with their deep pockets? Unless they would like to be another kodiak. I've started accumulating on companies that will still be dominating in immediate future.

Short answer: Yes, softer CPI raises the probability of rate cuts. But whether the S&P 500 extends gains depends less on inflation alone and more on growth, earnings, and positioning. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but not automatically or immediately. January CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.  Markets reacted exactly as theory suggests: Treasury yields fell as traders priced earlier easing.  Futures increased expectations of Fed cuts later this year.  Economists broadly interpret this as giving the Fed “breathing room,” but policymakers still want several months of confirmation before cutting, with many forecasts pointing to a first cut around mid-year (June).  Key nuance: Infla

I don't switch cars for the moment. Just stick with it. I believe in long-term investment. For the next 10years, AI will still of an important part of the future development.

Softer CPI print increases the possibility of rate cuts by providing the Fed  with the flexibility & reassurance needed to shift focus from fighting inflation to supporting labor market. There will be few major factors behind this:  (1) Probability Shift where people have bet for a June cut, with  probabilities as high as 83% to 90% (2) Timing:  a March cut remains highly unlikely due to a still-strong labor market, the disinflation trend keeps this likely for H2 2026 (3) Qquantum of cuts: Markets now price in approximately 63 basis points of total easing for 2026, equivalent to about two to three quarter-point reductions by year-end. (4) how markets react: S&P 500 and other major indices initially rallied on the news, as lower inflation and the prospect of

🌟🌟🌟They say inflation was too "sticky" but with the market now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, it seems the Fed is finally ready to let the "Higher for Longer" narrative hit the dust. What a Fed Rate Cut Means for the Market  Cheaper borrowing costs for companies will lead to higher investment, expansion and earnings growth. Lower discount rates means higher valuation for stocks especially growth and tech. Improved liquidity means more capital flowing into risk assets.  Stronger consumer spending will support corporate revenues.  Weaker US dollar will boost multinational companies' earnings. A rate cut doesn't just ease financial conditions.  It re-energises the entire economic engine. Will the S&P500 Extend Gains on This Optimism? In

The Mag7 Myth Crumbles: Microsoft (MSFT) has officially entered a bear market, down over 25% from its recent high. Amazon (AMZN) followed suit after eight consecutive days of losses. Meta is now teetering on the edge of the bear market threshold.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   $CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$   S&P 500 market index performance this month from last ATH on 7002 to 6832 and US market index still waiting from traditional event Q2 on april meanwhile momentum on march 18 and april 29 could be on underpressure trade market have downward trending from stock and bitcoin performance. ■ google stock oversold from 350 to 302 ■ microsoft stock oversold  552 to 392 Lately in time frame from market index not like before after bitcoin bearish trending on october 2025 versus bitcoin bearish on april 2025. Why can do thats?  2026 and 2027 ju

The recent US January CPI report showing a slower-than-expected inflation rate has significant implications for the market. The 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY increases in headline inflation, along with softer core inflation, suggest that the Federal Reserve may be more likely to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The market's reaction, with Treasury yields slipping and equities initially rising, indicates that investors are indeed interpreting the softer CPI as a sign of a higher possibility of rate cuts. The 80% market pricing for a Fed rate cut by June reflects this sentiment. Regarding the S&P 500, the index may extend its gains if the rate-cut optimism continues to drive investor sentiment. Historically, lower interest rates have been beneficial for stocks, as they can lead to in

Hmm, interesting take. Let me put a different pessimistic hat than the one I usually do: The recent action on Feb 12, with a sharp tech selloff and a flight to defensive sectors, might currently be a heavy tactical rotation rather than a confirmed long-term regime shift. Nasdaq fell 2.03% and Goldman's AI Risk Basket experienced a significant 5.1% plunge, broader market sentiment is being held in check by stabilizing economic data. But despite the tech slump, market breadth has remained relatively healthy, with industrials, energy, and REITs seeing selective inflows.  The inflation tailwinds, valuation reset & economic growth being robust indicate a Tactical Pause rather than a Regime Shift.

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

The January FOMC minutes (released February 2026) have indeed injected a dose of cold water into the market's "rate cut fever." While the S&P 500 has shown incredible resilience, the shift from a nearly guaranteed June cut to a "divided Fed" suggests a transition from a momentum-driven rally to a data-dependent one. Here is how the S&P 500 is likely to navigate this shift: S&P 500 Reaction: Gains vs. Profit Taking Historically, the S&P 500 can handle a "hawkish pause" as long as economic growth remains solid. However, the minutes revealed that the Fed is now prioritizing stability over speed. The "No Landing" Support: The market is currently buoyed by a "no landing" narrative—where the economy remains strong enough to avoid recession even with higher rates. This has helped

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

I think that rate cut by June, S&P 500 has room to run, but I don't expect a straight line up. Here's the honest take. Fed fund futures now price nearly a 90% probability of a 25bps cut by mid-year, driven by January CPI dropping to 2.4% — the lowest in nearly five years. That's a meaningful shift in market expectations, and equity markets love that kind of certainty. But history tells us the setup is more nuanced than just "rate cut = stocks go up." Yes, lower rates reduce borrowing costs, expand multiples, and lift risk appetite. Goldman Sachs sees US growth accelerating to 2–2.5% in 2026, and corporate earnings remain resilient — a goldilocks mix of benign inflation, lower rates, and growing profits. CNN That combination historically supports S&P 500 upside. The catch? Three thi

US January CPI data just dropped a bombshell, coming in cooler than expected with headline inflation rising a mere 0.2% month-over-month against 0.3% forecasts and 2.4% year-over-year – the lowest print since last May. Core inflation followed suit with softer-than-anticipated gains, igniting fresh bets on Fed easing and pushing market pricing for a rate cut before June to a whopping 80%. Treasury yields slipped sharply as traders yanked forward those easing expectations, while equities popped initially on the disinflation cheer, lifting S&P futures 0.5% pre-market. This softer read reflects easing pressures from labor cools and consumer crunch, raising the odds for dovish Fed dots unlocking 100bps+ cuts in 2026 – but does it seal a higher probability of near-term relief, or just tease

Yes, the softer January CPI meaningfully raises the probability of rate cuts, but it does not automatically guarantee a sustained equity rally. The market reaction depends on why inflation is cooling and what it implies for growth. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but cautiously. January CPI rose only 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are easing. Markets immediately pulled forward easing expectations, with Treasury yields falling and traders increasing bets on Fed cuts later this year.  Key implications: Cooling inflation reduces the Fed’s need to keep policy restrictive. Futures markets now price meaningful probability of cuts beginning around mid-year. Bond markets reacted first: short-term Treasury yields dec

🌟🌟🌟They say inflation was too "sticky" but with the market now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate cut by June, it seems the Fed is finally ready to let the "Higher for Longer" narrative hit the dust. What a Fed Rate Cut Means for the Market  Cheaper borrowing costs for companies will lead to higher investment, expansion and earnings growth. Lower discount rates means higher valuation for stocks especially growth and tech. Improved liquidity means more capital flowing into risk assets.  Stronger consumer spending will support corporate revenues.  Weaker US dollar will boost multinational companies' earnings. A rate cut doesn't just ease financial conditions.  It re-energises the entire economic engine. Will the S&P500 Extend Gains on This Optimism? In

Market Outlook of S&P500 (16Feb2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is on a downtrend, implying a bearish outlook. Moving Averages The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above the 200-day moving average (MA) lines. The last candle is sitting below the 50-day moving average (MA) line. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in the long-term outlook and a bearish trend in the short-term. Both the 50 MA and the 200 MA lines are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend. Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing a bearish outlook. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently regis

Just a few months ago, we were all riding the "AI-phoria" (AI euphoria) wave. Now, the market seems to have flipped into "AI-phobia" (AI fear) mode almost overnight. With the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ dropping over 2% last night and tech giants stalling, giants like Walmart and Coca-Cola are quietly hitting new highs. Is this a turning point for the bull market? Should we be shifting our portfolios toward defensive sectors? 1. The AI "Reaper" is Looking for Losers The logic has shifted. Previously, everyone believed AI would change the world; now, everyone is worrying: Whose rice bowl is AI going to break? This anxiety is spreading from traditional software into the $10 trillion information services market, including finance, real estate, logistics, and la

What you are observing looks less like an ordinary pullback and more like a change in market leadership under stress. The key question is whether this rotation is temporary positioning or the early stage of a durable regime shift. The answer, at this stage, sits between the two, but the character of the move leans toward a structural transition rather than a brief pause. --- 1. The market behaviour is internally consistent with risk repricing The price action you described is unusually coherent across asset classes: Risk assets weakening Nasdaq −2% (growth and duration exposure hit hardest) AI/high-beta baskets sharply down Multiple compression concentrated in software and AI beneficiaries Defensive and cash-flow sectors strengthening Consumer Staples and Utilities outperform Staples reach

Short answer: Yes, softer CPI raises the probability of rate cuts. But whether the S&P 500 extends gains depends less on inflation alone and more on growth, earnings, and positioning. --- 1. Does softer CPI increase rate-cut odds? Yes, but not automatically or immediately. January CPI cooled to 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY, below expectations, reinforcing the ongoing disinflation trend.  Markets reacted exactly as theory suggests: Treasury yields fell as traders priced earlier easing.  Futures increased expectations of Fed cuts later this year.  Economists broadly interpret this as giving the Fed “breathing room,” but policymakers still want several months of confirmation before cutting, with many forecasts pointing to a first cut around mid-year (June).  Key nuance: Infla

🌟🌟🌟The market is in mayhem today, pushed in 3 directions at the same time and none of them are gentle.   First, January's non farm payrolls smashed expectations: 130,000 vs 55,000 jobs expected.  Unemployment fell to  to 4.3% instead of 4.4% expected.  A labour market this strong gives the Fed zero urgency to cut.  Traders have now pushed the first rate cut from June to July with March rate cut odds collapsing and the probability of no change to above 94%. Second, delayed rate cuts mean the market's upside may stay capped in the near term.  Hot jobs mean sticky inflation.  Sticky inflation means delayed easing.  And delayed easing means the market's upside may stay capped in the near term. Third, geopolitical tensions are simmering, especia

Yes - in market pricing and sentiment. Market pricing (Fed funds futures / option-implied probabilities) has shifted noticeably toward earlier and/or more cuts later this year after CPI came in below expectations: headline inflation at ~2,4% YoY and a weaker monthly print. Traders have increased the odds of a June rate cut, with some pricing in a ~50-80% chance of at least one cut by mid-year.

The recent US January CPI report showing a slower-than-expected inflation rate has significant implications for the market. The 0.2% MoM and 2.4% YoY increases in headline inflation, along with softer core inflation, suggest that the Federal Reserve may be more likely to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The market's reaction, with Treasury yields slipping and equities initially rising, indicates that investors are indeed interpreting the softer CPI as a sign of a higher possibility of rate cuts. The 80% market pricing for a Fed rate cut by June reflects this sentiment. Regarding the S&P 500, the index may extend its gains if the rate-cut optimism continues to drive investor sentiment. Historically, lower interest rates have been beneficial for stocks, as they can lead to in

Softer CPI print increases the possibility of rate cuts by providing the Fed  with the flexibility & reassurance needed to shift focus from fighting inflation to supporting labor market. There will be few major factors behind this:  (1) Probability Shift where people have bet for a June cut, with  probabilities as high as 83% to 90% (2) Timing:  a March cut remains highly unlikely due to a still-strong labor market, the disinflation trend keeps this likely for H2 2026 (3) Qquantum of cuts: Markets now price in approximately 63 basis points of total easing for 2026, equivalent to about two to three quarter-point reductions by year-end. (4) how markets react: S&P 500 and other major indices initially rallied on the news, as lower inflation and the prospect of

This feels less like a random pullback and more like positioning stress surfacing. A few signals stand out: 1. Defensive leadership is broadening Staples hitting record highs while Utilities rally suggests investors are actively paying up for earnings stability. When capital rotates into Walmart and Coca-Cola on down days, it reflects preference for predictable cash flows over duration-sensitive growth. 2. AI risk unwind is accelerating A 510 bps drop in Goldman’s AI Risk Basket signals forced de-risking rather than selective trimming. When thematic baskets break repeatedly, it often indicates positioning was crowded. 3. Cyclical selectivity, not collapse Industrials, REITs and Energy seeing inflows suggests this is not a recession panic. It is more a quality and cash-flow rotation than a

Nasdaq will drop around 5-10% 🎉🎉🎉

The switch from AI-Euphoria to AI-phobia is not new as we have seen the same trick last year while Deep Seek was paraded as the bogeyman. It's the convenient excuse to peg a time to take a pause and lock in the profits when the naive retail investors catches the falling knifes. I believe a new narrative will emerge soon that the tech giants are in-fact already in the game or that the new kids on the block are being acquired under their fold. What can't be solved with their deep pockets? Unless they would like to be another kodiak. I've started accumulating on companies that will still be dominating in immediate future.

$S&P 500(.SPX)$   $Alphabet(GOOG)$   $CME Bitcoin - main 2602(BTCmain)$   S&P 500 market index performance this month from last ATH on 7002 to 6832 and US market index still waiting from traditional event Q2 on april meanwhile momentum on march 18 and april 29 could be on underpressure trade market have downward trending from stock and bitcoin performance. ■ google stock oversold from 350 to 302 ■ microsoft stock oversold  552 to 392 Lately in time frame from market index not like before after bitcoin bearish trending on october 2025 versus bitcoin bearish on april 2025. Why can do thats?  2026 and 2027 ju

This anxiety is spreading from traditional software into the $10 trillion information services market, including finance, real estate, logistics, and law. If $700 billion in annual AI investment starts disrupting these sectors, the consequences are real