To The Moon

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ delivered 66% growth & 84% margins, yet the stock dipped. 📉 Is the market mispricing this cash machine? This infographic breaks down the post-earnings battle: 🐂 Bulls (Score 4.1): Elite fundamentals. $1.4B EBITDA, massive buybacks & AI moat. 🐻 Bears (Score 3.1): Valuation fears, intensifying competition & sentiment. Fundamentals vs. Fear. Who wins? 👇 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

No, I feel the recent plunge in AppLovin &  Palantir reflects a sharp market recalibration rather than a purely fundamental collapse. Both reported robust growth but their prices have been caught in a broader sell-off triggered by fears of AI-driven disruption and high valuations rather than any wipeout scenario. However, the market is sharply recalibrating the price multiples it is willing to pay and this is healthy for the long run sustainability too.

Best to be more cautious in "extreme violent" tech cycle. Funds can deplete fast.

Short answer: the sell-off in APP (and arguably PLTR) is less about deteriorating fundamentals and more about a regime shift in how markets price software in the AI era. But that does not automatically mean “mispriced”. What you are seeing is a transition from growth-multiple valuation to AI survivability valuation. The distinction matters. Let us unpack this carefully. --- 1. The paradox: exceptional fundamentals, collapsing stock Your numbers are correct, and the magnitude matters. AppLovin Q4 2025: Revenue: $1.658B (+66% YoY) Net income: $1.102B (+84% YoY) Adjusted EBITDA: +$1.399B (+82% YoY) Free cash flow surged with ~84% EBITDA margins Operationally, this is elite performance for a software platform. The company beat expectations and even issued above-consensus guidance.  Yet sh

I don't think AI assistants like Clawdbot will eventually make apps on our phones and computers disappear.  The companies that use AI to increase ARPU (average revenue per user) or business will be the ultimate winners! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

$Shopify(SHOP)$ is a monetization masterclass act. It successfully make money and becomes an e-commerce giant. First, it charges its customers monthly subscription fee to maintain their e-commerce website. Second, Shopify’s merchant solutions generate revenue from payment processing fees from Shopify Payments. It is incredibly diversified from its fees from subscription as a service product, interest from Shopify Capital product, transaction fees from its payment system, and revenue share from third-party apps and services. The Shopify AI will accelerate its e-commerce operations. Thanks @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is the battleground of 2026. ⚔️ Q4 Revenue +70% & massive US Gov growth vs. Michael Burry’s 10k-word bear thesis predicting a 66% drop. This infographic breaks down the data driving the volatility: 🐂 Bulls (Score 4.17): Execution, AI Dominance & Airbus/DISA wins. 🐻 Bears (Score 3.83): Valuation concerns & Insider selling. Are you buying the dip or fearing the drop? 👇 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Daily_D

1. Fundamentals vs Market Reaction AppLovin • AppLovin reported excellent Q4 results: revenue ~US$1.66 billion (+66 % year-on-year) and net income +84 % to ~US$1.10 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up ~82 %. These outcomes beat expectations and point to strong earnings quality and profit margin expansion.  • Management also guided for continued sequential revenue growth in Q1.  • Despite this, the shares fell sharply on earnings day. The decline reflects investor concern rather than lack of operational performance. Palantir • Recent price weakness in PLTR is part of a broader pullback in software and technology stocks. Reuters and market sources have noted Palantir among software names with significant drawdowns as sentiment deteriorated.  Implication: The divergence between st

The recent earnings report from AppLovin (APP) and the subsequent market reaction, along with the warnings from Apollo's Co-President, present a complex scenario for investors. Let's analyze the situation: Strong Earnings Report: AppLovin's Q4 revenue and net income growth of 66% and 84% YoY, respectively, along with an 82% increase in adjusted EBITDA, indicate a robust financial performance. These numbers suggest that the company is executing well and growing its business substantially. Market Reaction: Despite the strong earnings, APP's stock price plunged 20% post-earnings. This reaction seems counterintuitive, given the positive fundamentals. The disconnect between the company's performance and the market's response could be attributed to broader market sentiment and the "software apoc

Applovin Q4 Earnings Review: Blowout Results, Strong Guidance. How Should Investors Play the Volatility? Amid intensifying debate over AI's long-term impact on software business models and heightened volatility following Unity's earnings, $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$   reported its fourth-quarter results. The company delivered revenue of $1.66 billion (vs. $1.62 billion expected), up 66% year over year, and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $3.24 (vs. $3.07 expected). Shares initially fell more than 10% in after-hours trading before sharply narrowing losses to around 1%. Such volatility suggests the market is digesting concerns about future competition and structural industry shifts rather than questioning the quarter

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ AppLovin's Q4 earnings just dropped like a bombshell, smashing expectations with revenue soaring 66% year-over-year to $1.658 billion and net income exploding 84% to $1.102 billion – adjusted EBITDA jumped 82% amid AI-driven ad tech dominance that's turning mobile gaming into a cash machine. Yet, despite this powerhouse performance pushing back against the "software apocalypse" sparked by Anthropic's workflow-crushing AI agents, APP shares cratered 20% post-earnings to $80 levels, dragging Palantir (PLTR) down 15% in sympathy as the sector reels from Apollo Co-President's chilling warning of an "extremely violent" tech cycle. Valuations are res

The deeper concern lies in business models. The core SaaS logic of seat-based pricing is facing potential disruption

In the past, our workflows required humans to switch between different SaaS tools. Clawdbot is changing the game: it can directly take over tasks via APIs or automation scripts. When AI can deliver results directly — without you even opening a UI

1️⃣ Cloudflare +33.6% growth, FCF margin 16.2%, operating leverage improving. The market rewarded quality growth plus AI narrative exposure. This was a clean beat with expanding profitability. Hence the sharp +17% reaction. 2️⃣ Cisco Raised revenue guidance, but margins guided down to 65.5%. In this tape, margin compression signals pricing pressure or cost creep. Investors care more about forward profitability than headline revenue. Hence the -7% move. 3️⃣ AppLovin: “Beat but Dip” Revenue +66%, net income +84%, EBITDA +82% is objectively strong. The issue is valuation and narrative risk. If “Clawdbot” is perceived as: • lowering SaaS switching costs • compressing software pricing power • automating ad optimisation then multiples contract even if earnings rise. High-beta, high-multiple name

This feels less about “Clawdbot killing SaaS” and more about valuation compression meeting higher quality thresholds. Cloudflare just printed 33% YoY growth with expanding FCF margins — that’s not a broken business. The issue is when a stock trades at premium multiples, even small changes in growth durability or AI monetization timelines can trigger multiple resets. AppLovin’s dip shows how fragile sentiment is when expectations are perfection. In this environment, the market is demanding: • Durable net retention • Clear AI monetization (not just AI narrative) • Expanding operating leverage • Real free cash flow The golden dip vs value trap question comes down to one thing: Is growth decelerating structurally or just normalizing after a hype cycle? If SaaS can pair AI adoption with margin

I think the market is using emergence of AI as an excuse to force a readjustment of the software companies. I for one do not want these AI programmes to do everything for me. I believe there is an opportunity to buy, the biggest issue is knowing whether these software companies have the right idea and direction in mind. This lesson is all the more reasons for software companies to properly work on their products without constantly relying on the AI crutch. Windows is a perfect example of not building on their success, instead they kept trying to chase easy value through their openai investment, then getting caught in no man's land. The software should use AI as a booster, not as a replacement, for what they do best. Constantly trying to short-change their users will only serve to doom the

Don't think of AI agents replacing apps but rather just an interface level which streamlines daily tasks.

The recent earnings reports from Credo Technology and Cloudflare have indeed sent shockwaves of excitement through the markets. Credo Technology's impressive revenue guidance of 404−408M for fiscal Q3, exceeding the consen susestimate of 341M, and the anticipated revenue growth of over 200% for FY2026, are strong indicators of the surging demand for AI data-center solutions, particularly in the areas of AEC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) and optical interconnect solutions. Similarly, Cloudflare's Q4 revenue of 614.5M, representing a (+33.6% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.28, has led to a significant surge in its shares. The notable jump in non-GAAP net income to 106.8M and the near doubling of free cashflow to 99.4M, resulting in a 16.2% margin, demonstrate the compa

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ delivered 66% growth & 84% margins, yet the stock dipped. 📉 Is the market mispricing this cash machine? This infographic breaks down the post-earnings battle: 🐂 Bulls (Score 4.1): Elite fundamentals. $1.4B EBITDA, massive buybacks & AI moat. 🐻 Bears (Score 3.1): Valuation fears, intensifying competition & sentiment. Fundamentals vs. Fear. Who wins? 👇 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver

1. Fundamentals vs Market Reaction AppLovin • AppLovin reported excellent Q4 results: revenue ~US$1.66 billion (+66 % year-on-year) and net income +84 % to ~US$1.10 billion, with adjusted EBITDA up ~82 %. These outcomes beat expectations and point to strong earnings quality and profit margin expansion.  • Management also guided for continued sequential revenue growth in Q1.  • Despite this, the shares fell sharply on earnings day. The decline reflects investor concern rather than lack of operational performance. Palantir • Recent price weakness in PLTR is part of a broader pullback in software and technology stocks. Reuters and market sources have noted Palantir among software names with significant drawdowns as sentiment deteriorated.  Implication: The divergence between st

Short answer: the sell-off in APP (and arguably PLTR) is less about deteriorating fundamentals and more about a regime shift in how markets price software in the AI era. But that does not automatically mean “mispriced”. What you are seeing is a transition from growth-multiple valuation to AI survivability valuation. The distinction matters. Let us unpack this carefully. --- 1. The paradox: exceptional fundamentals, collapsing stock Your numbers are correct, and the magnitude matters. AppLovin Q4 2025: Revenue: $1.658B (+66% YoY) Net income: $1.102B (+84% YoY) Adjusted EBITDA: +$1.399B (+82% YoY) Free cash flow surged with ~84% EBITDA margins Operationally, this is elite performance for a software platform. The company beat expectations and even issued above-consensus guidance.  Yet sh

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ AppLovin's Q4 earnings just dropped like a bombshell, smashing expectations with revenue soaring 66% year-over-year to $1.658 billion and net income exploding 84% to $1.102 billion – adjusted EBITDA jumped 82% amid AI-driven ad tech dominance that's turning mobile gaming into a cash machine. Yet, despite this powerhouse performance pushing back against the "software apocalypse" sparked by Anthropic's workflow-crushing AI agents, APP shares cratered 20% post-earnings to $80 levels, dragging Palantir (PLTR) down 15% in sympathy as the sector reels from Apollo Co-President's chilling warning of an "extremely violent" tech cycle. Valuations are res

Applovin Q4 Earnings Review: Blowout Results, Strong Guidance. How Should Investors Play the Volatility? Amid intensifying debate over AI's long-term impact on software business models and heightened volatility following Unity's earnings, $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$   reported its fourth-quarter results. The company delivered revenue of $1.66 billion (vs. $1.62 billion expected), up 66% year over year, and Adjusted Diluted EPS of $3.24 (vs. $3.07 expected). Shares initially fell more than 10% in after-hours trading before sharply narrowing losses to around 1%. Such volatility suggests the market is digesting concerns about future competition and structural industry shifts rather than questioning the quarter

The recent earnings report from AppLovin (APP) and the subsequent market reaction, along with the warnings from Apollo's Co-President, present a complex scenario for investors. Let's analyze the situation: Strong Earnings Report: AppLovin's Q4 revenue and net income growth of 66% and 84% YoY, respectively, along with an 82% increase in adjusted EBITDA, indicate a robust financial performance. These numbers suggest that the company is executing well and growing its business substantially. Market Reaction: Despite the strong earnings, APP's stock price plunged 20% post-earnings. This reaction seems counterintuitive, given the positive fundamentals. The disconnect between the company's performance and the market's response could be attributed to broader market sentiment and the "software apoc

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ is the battleground of 2026. ⚔️ Q4 Revenue +70% & massive US Gov growth vs. Michael Burry’s 10k-word bear thesis predicting a 66% drop. This infographic breaks down the data driving the volatility: 🐂 Bulls (Score 4.17): Execution, AI Dominance & Airbus/DISA wins. 🐻 Bears (Score 3.83): Valuation concerns & Insider selling. Are you buying the dip or fearing the drop? 👇 @Tiger_comments @TigerObserver @TigerPicks @TigerStars @Daily_D

No, I feel the recent plunge in AppLovin &  Palantir reflects a sharp market recalibration rather than a purely fundamental collapse. Both reported robust growth but their prices have been caught in a broader sell-off triggered by fears of AI-driven disruption and high valuations rather than any wipeout scenario. However, the market is sharply recalibrating the price multiples it is willing to pay and this is healthy for the long run sustainability too.

$Shopify(SHOP)$ is a monetization masterclass act. It successfully make money and becomes an e-commerce giant. First, it charges its customers monthly subscription fee to maintain their e-commerce website. Second, Shopify’s merchant solutions generate revenue from payment processing fees from Shopify Payments. It is incredibly diversified from its fees from subscription as a service product, interest from Shopify Capital product, transaction fees from its payment system, and revenue share from third-party apps and services. The Shopify AI will accelerate its e-commerce operations. Thanks @Tiger_comments @TigerStars

Best to be more cautious in "extreme violent" tech cycle. Funds can deplete fast.

I don't think AI assistants like Clawdbot will eventually make apps on our phones and computers disappear.  The companies that use AI to increase ARPU (average revenue per user) or business will be the ultimate winners! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) has created one of the largest infrastructure buildouts in modern technological history. While companies such as GPU manufacturers and cloud providers receive the majority of investor attention, a critical layer enabling AI scalability operates behind the scenes. One such company is $Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd(CRDO)$. Credo focuses on high-speed connectivity solutions that allow AI servers and data centers to transmit vast amounts of data efficiently. As AI workloads continue to scale, connectivity increasingly becomes a performance bottleneck, positioning Credo as an important infrastructure enabler within the AI ecosystem. Credo is a semiconductor connectivity company specializing in hi

One of the hottest topics in the AI world lately is the sudden emergence of Clawdbot (OpenClaw). In the past, our workflows required humans to switch between different SaaS tools. Clawdbot is changing the game: it can directly take over tasks via APIs or automation scripts. When AI can deliver results directly — without you even opening a UI — will traditional SaaS software gradually be reduced to little more than backend databases? The deeper concern lies in business models. The core SaaS logic of seat-based pricing is facing potential disruption. If one AI agent can do the work of ten employees, will companies still pay for ten software licenses? Last week’s broad pullback in SaaS stocks may have been an early market reaction to this kind of “dimensionality reduction” threat. Earnings Di

🌟🌟🌟Some days the market feels like it is being narrated by Clawdbot - that overly cheerful AI assistant who tells you your favourite SaaS stock is down 25% and then brightly asks if you would like a mindfulness exercise to "process your emotions". Welcome to 2026 where AI is reshaping how we work, how we invest and occasionally how we emotionally stabilise ourselves.  So What Exactly is Clawdbot? Clawdbot began as an open source personal AI assistant, created by a small group of independent developers who believed AI should be transparent, accessible and community driven.  Because it is open source, developers worldwide began contributing at lightning speed and Clawdbot evolved from a simple chatbot into a full conversational operating layer.  Today Clawdbot can: Fetch files

Software stocks recovered some losses for last week on Friday (06 Feb), and we have some names coming up with their earnings this week. $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, February 10, 2026, after the market closes. The company heads into this print with significant momentum, having reaccelerated revenue growth to 31% in Q3. However, with the stock coming off recent all-time highs and a premium valuation, the margin for error is slim. Key Metrics to Watch Investors will focus on whether Cloudflare can maintain its "rule of 40" performance (growth + margin) while scaling its AI and enterprise segments. Strategic Focus Areas The AI Tailwinds: Management has touted that 80% of leading AI companies use

The past week has been painful for the entire AI trade, but $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ has suffered more than most, falling 31% before even reporting Q4 2025 earnings. Shareholders hoping that earnings would bring back optimism in the stock were greatly disappointed, as Iren fell as much as 20% in the after-hours. This means that Iren was down close to 50% in just a few days! I believe there are 3 key reasons why the stock reacted so negatively to the earnings: No Hyperscaler Deals Revenue Miss Earnings Miss In my opinion, the market wildly overreacted to these developments. Furthermore, investors are completely ignoring the positives that Iren announced: Secured $3.6B GPU Financing New Massive Data Center Strong ARR Guidance Let’s dig deeper. 1. No Hypersc

Last week I wrote a post titled “Software is Dead…Again.” Since then, $iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF(IGV)$ is down ~20% (in just 1 week!). If software was dead a week ago what is it now, down an incremental 20%?! First - some fun stats The median NTM revenue multiple (cue all the comments “he’s still talking about revenue multiples?!?”) is 3.6x. This is the lowest it’s been in the last 10+ years. For the revenue multiple haters, the median FCF multiple is 16x NTM FCF, for median growth rate of ~20% (alas, once again, cue another set of haters, saying none of the FCF is real and it’s all sitting in SBC). Can’t escape it, maybe software is a zero with no valuation support. Was good while it lasted. 39% of my software index is trading <

The recent earnings reports from Credo Technology (CRDO) and Cloudflare (NET) have sparked significant interest and optimism in the SaaS (Software as a Service) sector. To analyze the implications of these reports and assess the potential for a SaaS comeback: Credo Technology's Stunning Guidance Revenue Guidance: Credo's fiscal Q3 revenue guidance of 404−408M, significantly above the 341M consensus, demonstrates the company's strong momentum in the market. This guidance implies a substantial increase in demand for the company's AEC (Active Electrical Cables) and optical interconnect solutions. FY2026 Revenue Growth: The expectation of revenue growth above 200% for FY2026 is a remarkable forecast, driven by surging AI data-center demand. This growth trajectory suggests that Credo is we