To The Moon

Market timers are too bullish about the outcome of the war - and May marks the start of the worst six-month stretch for markets historically. The U.S. stock-market correction has more downside ahead, according to contrarian analysts. That's because the mood on Wall Street in March and early April hasn't been pessimistic enough to trigger a contrarian buy signal.Instead, short-term stock-market timers have remained relatively bullish during the Iran war that began on Feb. 28. And after a two-week cease-fire was announced, market-timers stayed bullish.This is particularly evident among timers who focus on the Nasdaq stock market. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP in March fell by more than either the S&P 500 SPX or the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, dropping into semiofficial correction territory by declining by more than 10% from its February high. And because the Nasdaq market is highly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, we would have expected that Nasdaq-oriented market tim

Market timers are too bullish about the outcome of the war - and May marks the start of the worst six-month stretch for markets historically. The U.S. stock-market correction has more downside ahead, according to contrarian analysts. That's because the mood on Wall Street in March and early April hasn't been pessimistic enough to trigger a contrarian buy signal.Instead, short-term stock-market timers have remained relatively bullish during the Iran war that began on Feb. 28. And after a two-week cease-fire was announced, market-timers stayed bullish.This is particularly evident among timers who focus on the Nasdaq stock market. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP in March fell by more than either the S&P 500 SPX or the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, dropping into semiofficial correction territory by declining by more than 10% from its February high. And because the Nasdaq market is highly sensitive to changes in investor sentiment, we would have expected that Nasdaq-oriented market tim