To The Moon

 Some of you may have followed Intel’s latest reported earnings for Q1 2026, released on April 22, 2026, with revenue of $13.6 billion, up 7% year over year. Intel reported GAAP EPS of -0.73 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 for the quarter. Intel said Q1 2026 gross margin was 39.4% on a GAAP and 41.0% on a non-GAAP basis. The company’s results were broadly viewed as a beat versus analyst expectations, with some coverage noting the strongest growth came from the data center business. However those that dug deeper would find a few red flags: The biggest ones are weak GAAP profitability, large foundry losses, heavy capital demands, and execution risk around future process nodes and AI supply. The 14A roadmap and the large capital investment is another major risk.  What this means in effect

Alphabet is currently the "Mag 7" darling following a massive Q1 2026 beat. Revenue hit $109.9B (up 22%), fueled by a 63% explosion in Google Cloud revenue. With search queries at record highs and a new dividend hike, Google has effectively silenced "AI disruption" fears, proving its vertically integrated AI stack is already driving meaningful operating leverage.  Meta, conversely, is currently "lagging" in sentiment. Despite a solid revenue beat, shares slid nearly 10% after the company hiked its 2026 capex guidance to a staggering $125B–$145B. While Alphabet is showing immediate cloud payoffs, investors are wary of Meta’s ballooning spend without a clear, non-ad AI revenue stream. 

We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning.

Meta lost $4 billion on Reality Labs last quarter. Nobody noticed. Total metaverse losses since 2021? $83.5 billion. Everyone mocked Zuck for it. Fair. Now look at the AI number. Meta is spending $125-$145 billion on AI. Just this year. More than they lost on the metaverse in five. The CFO said it on the call: 'We have continued to underestimate our compute needs.' The stock dropped 5%. Net income was up 61%. Read that again. Up 61%. Stock down 5%. That's the market saying $145 billion isn't enough. The CFO just admitted it's the floor. Not the ceiling.

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 04May2026) International Market Closures China will be closed on Monday and Tuesday as the country observes Labor Day celebrations. This holiday may impact trading volumes and activity in Asian markets during these days. Key U.S. Economic Indicators The S&P Global Services PMI for April is projected to be 51.3, indicating an expansionary trend in the global services sector. New home sales data for March will be released, offering valuable insight into the current health of the real estate market. Several labour market indicators are scheduled for release in the coming week. JOLTS job openings for March will be published, with the previous figure at 6.882 million. This data will serve as an important reference for the Federal Reserve when con

Earnings Calendar (04May2026) In the coming week the most anticipated earnings releases include that of Palantir, Tyson, Berkshire Hathaway, AMD, PayPal, Walt Disney, KKR, and McDonald’s. Who is KKR? KKR & Co. Inc. is a leading global investment firm founded in 1976 that pioneered the private equity industry. As of early 2026, it manages approximately $744 billion in assets, operating across private equity, credit, infrastructure, real estate, and capital markets. Known for its hands-on “one-firm” approach, KKR aims for operational excellence in its portfolio companies, holding investments for 5–7 years. The firm has evolved into a diversified alternative asset manager, including a major insurance business through Global Atlantic. Led by co-CEOs Joe Bae and Scott Nuttall, KKR operates

Market Outlook of S&P500 (04May2026) Technical Analysis Overview MACD Indicator The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 is trending up. Chaikin Money Flow The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stands at 0.46, indicating there is more buying momentum than selling pressure in the market. Moving Averages Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows the last candlestick has been above the 50-day moving average (MA50) and the 200-day moving average (MA200). This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the short and long term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have begun to trend upwards, which indicates a bullish outlook in both the short and long term. Exponential Moving Averages The exponential moving average (EMA) lines are s

News and my thoughts from the past week (04May2026) We are seeing a historic earnings boom. The current year-over-year blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is a whopping +27.1%, more than DOUBLE the +13.1% expected. With ~63% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q1 earnings thus far, we are on track for the highest earnings growth rate since Q4 2021. Meanwhile, Magnificent 7 companies alone are now guiding over $700 BILLION in CapEx spend for 2026 alone. There has never been a more historic time to own assets than now. Asset owners are winning. - X user The Kobeissi Letter UN boss Guterres just went full doomsday mode on the Strait of Hormuz chaos: If it drags on, we’re staring at global recession, inflation exploding past 6%, 32 million more people shoved into poverty, and

My Investing Muse (04May2026) Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies Germany is rapidly heading towards a severe economic crisis. Germany's unemployment rate reached 6.4%, the highest since the Covid-19 peak, which also was at 6.4%. - X user Megatron Cognizant to cut 4,000 jobs as consulting industry continues to see mass job shedding - MacroEdge UK business closures average 71,000 every quarter Chegg is now down 99% from its peak because AI has killed its business entirely. Chegg was a $14.7 billion edtech company that charged students $20 a month for homework answers from a database of 79 million solutions built over a decade. Then ChatGPT launched in November 2022. Five months later Chegg’s CEO admitted it was destroying their business. The stock dropped 48% in a single day. Revenue droppe

After 34 years of service, one of America’s most recognizable low-cost carriers Spirit Airlines has officially shut down its operations permanently  All flights have been canceled, and customer service systems have gone offline 17,000 jobs lost. Fuel costs are up. Unemployment is up. And businesses can’t afford to stay affordable. Other ULCCs like Frontier Airlines are under similar pressure from sky-high jet fuel costs (doubled amid Iran-related oil disruptions), debt loads, and thin margins. Allegiant and some European/Indian carriers (e.g., SpiceJet) have also flagged risks of cuts or worse.  Majors like Delta/United are raising fares, slashing unprofitable routes, and hiking fees to weather it instead of folding. Broader industry consolidation likely ahead. The above is taken

Latest Close Data Closed at $140.53 on 2026-05-01, up +6.31% (+$8.34). Currently ~$61.16 (30.4%) below its 52-week high of $201.69. Core Market Drivers Strong momentum driven by robust demand for AI infrastructure monitoring solutions. The company continues to benefit from enterprise cloud migration and the critical need for observability in complex, AI-driven environments. Positive sentiment is reflected in significant pre-market and after-hours activity. Technical Analysis Volume of ~6.25M shares shows healthy participation (Volume Ratio: 1.50). The MACD (DIF: 4.13, DEA: 2.48, MACD: 3.32) is bullish and expanding, indicating strong upward momentum. The 12-day RSI at 68.98 approaches overbought territory but is not yet extreme, supporting the bullish short-term view. Key Price Levels Prim

Latest Close (2026-05-01): $726.93, up +7.91% (+$53.29). The stock traded within $663.30 - $728.00 and closed just 0.15% below its 52-week high of $728.00. Core Market Drivers: Strong momentum continues as STX benefits from robust data center demand for storage solutions. The stock's significant appreciation reflects investor confidence in its high-margin product mix and execution, despite a lack of specific breaking news today. Technical Analysis: Volume surged to 7.39M shares (Volume Ratio 1.28), confirming the bullish breakout. The MACD (61.22) is accelerating above its signal line (47.85), printing a strong positive histogram of 26.75. However, RSI(6) at 91.36 and RSI(12) at 85.71 are deeply in overbought territory, signaling a potential near-term pullback risk. Key Price Levels: Prima