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10-10
$HIMS 20261030 40.0 CALL$ Recent news balance for Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) watchlist The recent news flow is mixed, with growth and product-expansion catalysts offset by a material legal overhang. The most constructive developments are revenue outperformance, higher full-year revenue guidance, AI-led product initiatives, and international clinical expansion. The dominant bearish issue is FTC-related litigation and associated securities-fraud class-action claims, which have contributed to volatile trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bullish developments Revenue momentum: In 2026Q2, Hims & Hers reported USD 753.214 million in sales, above the USD 699.889 million estimate; the company also r
HIMS CALL
10-09 23:08
US20261030 40.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 0.13 1Lot(s) | -- Closed |
TOPXiia: Revenue beat matters less if EPS keeps lagging. I care more about which cost line is blocking that conversion, especially with the FTC cloud still hanging over HIMS
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10-10
$INTC 20261016 96.0 PUT$ Limit order filled to sell INTC cash secured put below $100 psychological support for credit.
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10-11
$Direxion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares(SOXL)$ Staying the Course: Why I Continue to DCA on SOXL Near EMA200 Support My journey with Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) continues, and I am sticking to my strategy of dollar-cost averaging (DCA). After experiencing some ups and downs, my paper gains have returned to around breakeven, with only a minor gain at the moment. Instead of feeling discouraged by the volatility, I see this as part of the journey when investing in a highly leveraged semiconductor ETF. From a technical perspective, SOXL is currently hovering above its EMA200 support line, an important level that I am watching closely. More encouragingly, the price action appears to be attempting to form a higher low.
SOXL
10-10 06:05
USDirexion Daily Semiconductors Bull 3x Shares
| Side | Price | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Buy Open | 139.34 | -66.76% Holding |
TOPEMA200 holding is the only part that matters here. If semi equipment orders are really turning, the higher low has teeth 👀
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10-11
$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ Why I Remain Bullish on ARM for the Long Term: Buying Weakness with Conviction My bullishness on Arm Holdings (ARM) is driven by its long-term growth potential in the semiconductor industry. As computing demand continues to expand across artificial intelligence, data centers, smartphones, and edge devices, ARM's energy-efficient chip architecture remains highly relevant. I believe the world will need more powerful computing capabilities without a proportional increase in power consumption, and this is where ARM has an important role to play. One of the key reasons I remain optimistic is ARM's business model. Rather than manufacturing chips itself, ARM generates revenue through licensing its intellectual property and collect
TOPLong term maybe, but open RISC-V and custom silicon can cap that royalty story fast. At 267, execution has to stay near perfect
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10-11
$ASTS 20261113 40.0 PUT$ Sell put to pay for oriental kopi mee siam 😋😋😋$ASTS 20261113 40.0 PUT$
ASTS PUT
10-09 23:21
US20261113 40.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 1.15 10Lot(s) | -- Closed |
TOP40p for 1.15 to fund kopi is clean, but I would rather go farther out and more OTM
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10-12
$PONY 20261023 6.0 PUT$ Recent news read-through: mildly bullish, but execution risk remains high Recent headlines for Pony AI (PONY) watchlist are predominantly constructive: the key catalyst is international robotaxi expansion with Uber, alongside strong reported robotaxi revenue growth. The bearish counterweight is that commercial scale-up still requires substantial deployment, regulatory approvals and capital, while recent commentary has questioned valuation after a sharp share-price decline. Bullish developments London expansion: Pony AI and Uber plan to introduce Gen-7 robotaxis in London, with road testing expected to begin in the coming weeks. The announcement helped lift the US-listed shares by more than 5% on 202
PONY PUT
10-12 21:41
US20261023 6.0
| Side | Price | Filled | Realized P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Sell Open | 0.26 1Lot(s) | -- Closed |
TOPThat London catalyst probably gives 6 puts some near-term support pain, but the real pressure is still whether they can scale toward 3500 cars without burning too hard
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10-12
Options Weekly | AI Confidence Faces a Test
I. Weekly Market Overview The biggest variable for U.S. stocks this week is the double test of rate pressure and AI profitability. Treasury yields and oil prices spiked at one point, increasing pressure on high-valuation tech stocks. After controversy over OpenAI’s annualized revenue figure, the market began asking when massive AI capex would convert into revenue. However, this does not mean AI demand has disappeared — rather, capital is starting to distinguish companies that can truly make money from those that merely benefit from the investment boom. This week, CPI, bank earnings, ASML earnings, and TSMC earnings will follow one after another. If inflation cools, financials perform steadily, and TSMC maintains a strong outlook, the broader market may regain support. Conversely, if rates
TOPFor SMH, ASML order mix matters more than revenue. If TSMC slows but Intel and Samsung fill EUV demand, this pullback probably stays contained.
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10-12
S&P500, the Magnificent 7 & the S&P493 (YTD performance)
Here’s a ~300-word summary of our three-part market analysis (data as of 9–10 Oct 2026), in prose. 1. YTD performance and the reversal. 2026 flipped the script. The S&P 500 is up roughly 14.9% on a total-return basis, but the Magnificent 7 lagged (cap-weighted around +11%, equal-weighted around +5%) while the S&P 493 led (about +16%). The seven names that drove 62% of 2023’s gains became a drag this year, with Microsoft (−19%) and Tesla (−14%) offsetting Apple and Alphabet. Breadth broadened in the first half, then re-narrowed in Q3 (Equal-Weight −2%, Russell 2000 −7%). Concentration sits at a record ~38–40% top-10 weight, exceeding the dot-com peak. 2. Leverage and the pipeline. Margin debt hit a record ~$1.5T (+37% year-on-year), with net free credit at −$1.03T — no cash cushion
TOPVOO is exactly where the single-point-of-failure risk gets diluted though. If the fragility is mostly Mag 7 concentration, broad index structure is the buffer, not the weakness
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10-12
Iggy’s Journal: Sheng Siong Is Down About 10%. The Dividend Is 2.6% and the Warehouse Costs S$520M
Iggy’s Journal: Sheng Siong Is Down About 10%. The Dividend Is 2.6% and the Warehouse Costs S$520M Mon 12 Oct 2026 | Afternoon The Numbers Sheng Siong’s profit rose 11.9%, but its operating cash flow fell to S$54.8 million. The company attributes the decline to bonuses and earlier vendor payments. The shares are about 10% below their S$3.20 price on 2 October. The trailing dividend yield is 2.62%, which is 58 basis points under my 3.2% Forensic Floor and 208 basis points under my 4.7% hurdle. The new warehouse costs S$520 million. My Personal Take A single cash flow figure cannot show whether earlier vendor payments are a one-off timing difference or a new payment schedule. Whether payables rebuild is the open question, and only later periods can answer it. Until then I read the 11.9% prof
TOPThat S$520M spend can pinch free cash flow near term, but the real test is whether it lifts margins by 1 to 2 points over the next few years
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10-12
Advisory on the Future Trajectory and Systemic Risks of the U.S. Stock Market
Based on recent monitoring of global indices and risk assessments, I have analyzed the monthly trends of key sectors and major listed companies in the U.S. stock market. It is highly probable—with a likelihood exceeding 90%—that the market will experience a structural downturn over the next six months, characterized by corrections at both the monthly and weekly chart levels. This anticipated decline is not driven by geopolitical tensions or major international events; rather, it stems from a lack of fresh capital inflows and the fact that the speculative fervor surrounding many mega-cap stocks—such as Nvidia—has pushed their valuations to cyclical peaks. When high valuations are realized, the market inevitably shifts focus toward new sources of profit growth. For the capital market, this m
TOPI buy the downside call, but the bigger driver is shrinking liquidity, not just rotation out of crowded highs.
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10-12
📉 Memory Stocks Are Under Pressure. Could the Bottom Be Closer Than It Looks?
$MU, $SNDK and $000660.KS are facing a difficult market as investors question whether the AI boom is creating a lasting recovery for memory or simply shifting demand from one segment to another. The important distinction is that HBM can be in high demand while conventional DRAM still struggles. These are related markets, but they don’t necessarily follow the same cycle. 🧠 1. AI Demand Doesn’t Automatically Fix DRAM AI accelerators need high-bandwidth memory (HBM), which delivers data rapidly to powerful processors. But HBM production requires specialised capacity and advanced packaging. That doesn’t mean every type of memory benefits equally. If manufacturers prioritise HBM while conventional DRAM demand remains weak, the market can experience very different pricing conditions across memor
TOPI’d wait for gross margin to turn, but MU near book has usually priced in a lot of DRAM pain already. HBM can carry sentiment before the full cycle clears
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10-12
Reference Template
SSE Methodology & Observation Framework Overview I. Core Methodological Frameworks 1. Cognitive Cycle & Learning Curve A five-stage cognitive process forming the core framework for observing market participants. Stage One: Information Absorption Believing more information leads closer to the answer; in reality, information overload often causes judgment confusion. Stage Two: Validation & Profit Period Positive market feedback is easily mistaken for proof of skill, when it may simply be cyclical or environmental tailwind. Stage Three: Autonomous Consciousness Formation The key divide lies in "willingness to think" versus "unwillingness to think." Stage Four: Motive Identification The more obvious the motive, the more easily the behavior exposes its purpose. Stage Five: Structura
TOPThat structural lens works best in sector rotation too — headlines lag, but the tape usually shows where risk appetite is quietly migrating first
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10-12
I Drew Four Zones On Coinbase Nine Days Ago. The Street's New Targets Land In Three Of Them.
$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Mathematical Money | October 12, 2026 On 1 October I posted the levels I was watching on $COIN$ , four zones drawn off nine months of price action, with no model behind them beyond where the stock had actually spent its time. In the nine days since, four separate houses published new price targets on the same company. Every one of them was a raise. Barclays went to $149, Bank of America to $203, Goldman Sachs to $244, Morgan Stanley to $258. Then I went back and put their numbers on my zones, which I had not expected to be interesting and turned out to be the most interesting thing I have looked at this week. Where their targets land on my map Barclays at $149 sits inside what I called the liquidity grab z
TOPWide target dispersion is information to me. With COIN around 180 and put call volume only 0.71, I would rather keep harvesting theta than force direction into earnings
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10-12
Accenture: AI's Favourite Punching Bag, or Wall Street's Next Bargain?
Accenture was supposed to be one of artificial intelligence's first corporate casualties. Instead, it delivered record bookings and a spectacular share-price rebound. The numbers are impressive, but I suspect investors are asking the wrong question. The Patient Has a Pulse. Now What? Wall Street has a peculiar bedside manner. First, it declares a patient terminal. Then, when the patient sits up and asks for breakfast, it calls the recovery a buying opportunity. That roughly describes $Accenture PLC(ACN)$ . After sliding to a nine-year low in June, the shares surged 15.8% on 1 October, closing at $212.30 following fiscal 2026 results. Intraday, the rally approached 24%. For a company supposedly facing extinction at the hands of artificial intelligen
TOPI lean bullish here. AI makes consultants more necessary when integration, governance and workflow redesign get messy.
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10-12
HIMS Friday’s 10% Surge Meets a Selling-Heavy Forecast
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ ⚡ Key Takeaway The stock remains in the Bearish zone, and the week’s rebound has done little to change a forecast that expects down weeks to outnumber up weeks four to one. Selling strength is projected to be far greater than buying strength, and the risk grade stays in the structural-breakdown tier. The notable shift is that the odds of a Bullish zone entry have faded across the ten weeks ahead. Think of a swimmer who has bobbed to the surface after a wave: the breath is real, but the next wave is already forming. A rebound like this is worth more as a chance to reassess than as a signal to relax. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 1️⃣ What Is Happening Right Now 📌 ① Week of Sep 28 Close → Week o
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10-12
⚡ Google Needs More Power. $CEG Could Be One of the Biggest Beneficiaries.
The AI boom is creating an unexpected investment opportunity: electricity. On October 9, $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$ rose 3.22% during regular trading as investors continued assessing its landmark power agreement with Google. But the bigger story isn’t just one day’s share-price movement. It’s how technology companies are securing electricity for the next generation of AI data centres. ⚛️ 1. A 20-Year Deal With Google Google has signed a 20-year agreement with Constellation to support the addition of 890 MW of new nuclear capacity to the US PJM electricity grid. The agreement supports more than $4.3 billion in investment to upgrade existing nuclear facilities, with the first additional capacity expected in 2028. Google has also agreed to
TOP20-year PPA cash flows matter more here than the 2028 wait. With 3590 MW tied to Google, CEG does not look cheap cheap, but it does look structurally supported
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10-12
📈📉 MSFT, MRVL & PLTR Upgraded — What Is Wall Street Repricing?
Wall Street reshuffled its calls last week, with analysts changing their views across AI, software, semiconductors, healthcare and consumer stocks. From $Microsoft(MSFT)$getting a bullish AI-security call to $Nike(NKE)$ facing deeper turnaround concerns, here are the key institutional moves from October 5–9 — and more importantly, why analysts changed their minds. 📅 MONDAY, OCT 5 | AI Security Becomes a New Bull Case 🟢 $Microsoft(MSFT)$Melius Research: Hold → Buy | PT: $465 → $665 Melius upgraded $Microsoft(MSFT)$, arguing that growing concerns around AI secu
TOPMRVL 🚀 surprised me because TD Cowen upgraded it from Hold to Buy and raised its price target by 43%, from $245 to $350. The interesting part is the improved confidence in Marvell’s AI connectivity business and reduced concerns about custom-chip margins and customer concentration.
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10-12
S&P 500 Up 14%, but 40% of Stocks Are Down: Is the AI Bull Market Getting Too Narrow?
U.S. stock indexes keep pushing toward new highs, but the number of stocks actually making money for investors may be much smaller than you think. According to Reuters, citing LSEG data on October 12, the S&P 500 has gained roughly 14% year to date, yet more than 200 of its constituents are still trading lower, with about a quarter down 11% or more. Even more striking, the median return among S&P 500 stocks is only around 4%. In other words, the index looks like it is enjoying a strong bull market, but investors who missed a handful of major winners may have significantly underperformed. The more interesting question is not whether the market has risen too much, but why so much of the rally is concentrated in AI and semiconductor stocks. SanDisk and Micron have each surged more tha
TOPMy take: Option ③. The biggest risk isn't simply high valuations, but a market increasingly dependent on a handful of AI giants. Strong earnings justify premium prices, yet even minor disappointments could trigger outsized volatility when expectations become too optimistic. I wouldn't bet against him blindly. Instead, I'd watch three signals: earnings growth beyond semiconductors, improving market breadth, and whether equal-weight indices start outperforming. If corporate profits spread across sectors, this rally could become more sustainable. If leadership keeps narrowing, the index may look healthy while underlying risks accumulate. A record high measures price, not market strength. The real test is whether this rally can survive without its biggest winners. @Tiger_comments [正经]
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10-12
[Stock Prediction] High Rates Ahead — Guess which bank is a big winner this week ?
JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Oct. 13, followed by Morgan Stanley and Bank of America on Oct. 14. Higher rates can be good for banks — They can lift loan yields and support net interest income. But they also raise funding costs, slow borrowing and put more pressure on consumers and businesses. Earning Highlight First, net interest income. Can higher loan yields still outweigh rising deposit and funding costs? Second, investment banking and trading.M&A and IPO activity has been improving, but the recovery is uneven. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have sounded relatively upbeat, while Bank of America has warned of softer investment-banking fees. Third, credit quality.Investors will be watching credit-card delinquencies, loan-loss provisions and consumer loan g
TOPAs the Q3 earnings season kicks off, bank performance hinges on the tug-of-war between strong Net Interest Income (NII) and accelerating deposit costs. While high benchmark rates bolster yields, balance sheet strength dictates who truly outperforms Among major Wall Street institutions, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) stands out as the ultimate winner. JPM’s unrivaled capital fortress, disciplined risk management, and dominant deposit franchise allow it to navigate credit normalization far better than peers. Unlike competitors constrained by rising funding expenses, JPM continues capturing market share across retail and wealth management. Furthermore, its resilient corporate and investment banking pipeline provides a strong earnings engine during macro shifts While Bank of America faces softer fee outlooks and Goldman relies heavily on volatile trading revenue, JPM’s diversified model ensures top-tier performance once again. High rates favor scale, making JPM the clear leader @Tiger_Earnings
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10-11
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Amazon: great business, heaviest spending cycle ever, and what it means for my sell puts Amazon is the strongest Tier 1 name I've scored so far, and I still won't sell a put on it today. The operating business is excellent. Q2 sales were $200.6B, up 20%, and operating income was $27.5B, up 43%. AWS grew 37%, its fastest since 2021, at a 39.4% margin. That's 21% of sales but about 60% of operating profit. The reported profit is a different story. Q2 net income was $62.6B, but $53.4B of pre-tax income was non-operating, mostly gains on the Anthropic stake. These are real but non-cash and can reverse. Strip them out and Amazon trades at about 31.6× 2026 and 25.1× 2027 earnings, not the 20× on the screen. Cash is the other wa
TOPCapex versus operating cash flow is still the real swing factor for me. AWS is carrying the story, but FCF stays messy until that ratio cools off