As the US-Iran war goes into its 6th week of fighting, we have to be mentally prepared for a worsening of the situation, not unless US stick to its peaceful retreat and not execute another foolish stunt.
While the world wait for US to exhibit proof of sincerity, it marches on as it is “business as usual”.
Is it really so, when everyone is sucked into this black hole - willingly or otherwise ?
Below was US reports released for the week ending 02 Apr 2026.
This will be a “last” look at the US economy before quarterly earnings season “takeover”.
-
31 Mar 2026 - Jobs opening & labour turnover surveys (February).
-
31 Mar 2026 - US Consumer confidence (March).
-
01 Apr 2026 - ADP non-farm payroll (March).
-
01 Apr 2026 - US Retail sales (February).
-
02 Apr 2026 - Jobless claims - weekly & continuing.
-
02 Apr 2026 - US trade deficit (February).
-
03 Apr 2026 - US Non-farm payroll (March).
Jobs Opening & Labour Turnover surveys (JOLTs).
The US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) report on JOLTs pointed to a softer US labour market in February 2026.
Job openings fell to 6.882 million vs Reuters-consensus of 6.918 million, while prior month was revised sharply higher to 7.240 million from 6.946 million. (see above)
Hires slipped to 4.849 million vs January’s 5.347 million, showing less hiring momentum than the month before.
Quits eased to 2.974 million vs January’s 3.137 million, suggesting workers were slightly less confident about moving jobs.
Layoffs / discharges edged up to 1.721 million vs January’s 1.660 million, still historically contained but inching higher.
All above numbers are reinforcing the “cooling but not collapsing” US labour market narrative for February 2026.
If I have to predict, I think the March numbers will be “bad” with the Middle East conflict trigger.
US Consumer Confidence.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose modestly to 91.8 on 31 Mar 2026, beating economist expectations of 88.0 and up from February's revised 91.0. (see above)
The uptick reflects resilience amid tariff pressures and oil price spikes, though the index remains on a multi-year downtrend.
Key Increases
Present Situation index jumped up by +4.6 points to 123.3, driven by views of plentiful jobs and stable wages in the current labour market.
Family's current financial situation also improved slightly after February's dip. (see above)
Key Decreases
Expectations Index fell by -1.7 points to 70.9, signaling pessimism on future income, business conditions, and job availability.
It is below the “80” recession-warning threshold.
Fewer consumers (15.4% vs. 16.0%) expect more jobs ahead, with more (27.9% vs. 26.2%) anticipating fewer.
ADP Non-farm payroll.
The ADP private sector jobs report released on 01 Apr 2026, indicated that private sector employment increased by 62,000 jobs in March 2026. (see above)
This figure slightly exceeded the consensus estimate of 40,000, though it represented a marginal deceleration from February's upwardly revised gain of 66,000.
Rising sectors.
Like February’s report, 2 sectors essentially provided all the gains.
Education and health services contributed 58,000, identical to the February total, while construction added 30,000.
Health services total was held back in the prior month due to a since-resolved strike at Kaiser Permanente that sidelined more than 30,000 workers in Hawaii and California.
Falling sectors.
On the downside, trade, transportation and utilities lost 58,000 workers, completely offsetting the gains in healthcare and education combined.
Manufacturing continued its recent trend of weakness, losing 11,000 jobs.
US retail sales for February 2026
US Retail sales.
Americans stepped up their spending at US retailers in February 2026, after 3 consecutive months of declines.
This shows that US consumer has not tapped out yet in the face of weak job growth and low consumer sentiment.
For February 2026, US Commerce department’s reported retail sales (MoM) increased +0.6%, slightly above expectations of +0.5% and January’s +0.3%. (see above)
Excluding autos, retail sales advanced by a solid +0.5%, surpassing the consensus estimate of +0.3% and January’s 0.0%.
Retail sales climbed across nearly every category in February, declining only at grocery stores and furniture retailers, each decreasing -1.0%.
Meanwhile, retail spending increased the most at department stores (+3%), personal care shops (+2.3%) and clothing retailers (+2%).
“Control group” sales (less building materials, cars & gasoline) rose by +0.45% in February 2026, higher than expectations of a 0.3% increase.
It is a closely watched indicator of underlying demand in the economy.
Economists watch spending data closely because Americans’ purchases make up about ⅔ of US GDP.
In recent years, spending has been more closely tied with the health of US labour market, specifically layoffs rather than people’s attitudes toward the economy.
Jobless claims - Weekly & Continuing.
On 02 Apr 2026, US Department of Labour released its weekly jobless claims report.
They revealed a labour market that remains historically tight in terms of layoffs, even as those currently unemployed find it slightly harder to re-enter the workforce.
Weekly claims.
For week ending 28 Mar 2026, weekly jobless claims fell by -9,000 to 202,000, beating forecasts of 212,000 and previous week’s upwards revised claims of 211,000. (see below)
Latest data brings the claims figure near a 2-year low, signaling that "firing" remains extremely low across the broader economy.
The 4-week moving average, a metric that helps smooth out volatility, fell to 207,750.
Businesses appear hesitant to let go of staff despite cooling economic sentiment, with economists warning of a prolonged Middle East war posed a downside risk.
Continuing claims.
For week ending 21 Mar 2026, US continuing claims rose by +25,000 to 1.841 million, that has marginally exceeded Wall Street consensus of 1.840 million and previous week’s claims of 1.816 million.
This slight "miss" against the 1.840 million forecast suggests that while people are not losing jobs in high numbers, those who are unemployed are taking longer to find their next role.
This aligns with the "low-hire, low-fire" theme noted in recent JOLTS and ADP reports.
US Trade Balance - Deficit.
The US trade balance report released by the Census Bureau and US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), revealed a widening of the trade gap as US economy grapples with a surge in AI-driven imports and escalating geopolitical costs. (see above)
Trade deficit rose to $57.3 billion in February, up by +$2.7 billion (or +4.9%) from the revised January 2026 number of $54.7 billion.
Although deficit expanded, it remains lower (-54.8% YoY) from February 2025’s -$122.7 billion, reflecting a structural shift in trade flows over the past year.
Granular analysis showed jump in imports was heavily concentrated in high-tech capital goods, signaling that US "AI arms race" is still in full swing.
Overall, latest data points to a volatile but manageable US trade balance: a very strong January correction, followed by a partial reversal in February.
US Non-farm payroll.
US Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS)’s Non-farm payroll (NFP) report delivered a "goldilocks" surprise that defied the cooling trend seen in the private-sector ADP Non farm paryroll report.
For March 2026, US NPF surged by 178,000, significantly outperforming consensus forecast of 59,000.
This also represents a sharp acceleration from February’s downwardly revised loss of -133,000 from originally reported -92,000 and marked US NFP’s strongest monthly gain since late 2024. (see above)
The Top 3 sectors that led growth are:
-
Healthcare added 76,000 jobs, with 35,000 jobs (or 46% ) due to workers in physician offices returning from a strike.
-
Construction gained 26,000 jobs - a strong recovery after the sector had shown “little to no” net change over the previous year.
-
Transportation & Warehousing added 21,000 jobs, that was entirely driven by couriers & messengers’ services with additional +20,000 jobs.
US unemployment for March 2026
In addition to jobs numbers, the followings were reported as well:
-
Unemployment rate ticked marginally lower to 4.3%, from February 2026’s 4.4%. (see above)
-
US’s Labour Force Participation Rate edged marginally lower to 61.9% from 62%.
-
Average Hourly Earnings’ annual growth eased to 3.5%, from 3.8% due to wage pressure.
Wall Street’s analysts overwhelmingly believe US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady rather than cut them when they next convene in April 28-29.
Even the latest CME Fedwatch tool is registering similar outcome. (see below)
-
For April 2026, the probability of US Fed holding onto existing interest rate of “350 - 375” bps is 99.5%.
My Assessment.
Overall, US labour market is resilient and cooling, with hiring decelerating into a low-mobility equilibrium while layoffs remain historically low.
US economy is in a high-stability, low-velocity equilibrium, heading toward a period of cooling growth as (a) rising energy costs and (b) a widening trade deficit begins to curb discretionary spending.
The Cross Over.
For the week beginning 06 Apr 2026, US listed companies will start sharing their latest profit reports as the new Q1 2026 quarterly earnings season kicks off.
Historically, corporate profit reports exert a greater short-term influence on market sentiment during earnings season because they act as a "reality check" for the stock prices that are often driven by speculation between reports.
Macroeconomic data (jobs, inflation, GDP reports) sets the broad "weather" for the US economy.
Quarterly earnings provide the specific "health" of individual companies that make up the market, resetting expectations, provide forward guidance, act as bellwether for the sector it belongs to and most import, impact its valuation directly. Agree ?
With that, companies that kick off earnings season this week includes:
-
07 Apr 2026 - $Levi Strauss & Co(LEVI)$
-
08 Apr 2026 - $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$
This is the prelude for what’s to come in the following week, when the bigwigs will make their moves.
Until then, all eyes will be on Tue, 07 Mar 2026 - the ultimatum that Trump has set for Iran to open up the Straits of Hormuz or face the wrath of the big bully.
For the month of March 2026, about $3.2 trillion has been erased from US stock market when US-Iran war broke out on 28 Feb 2026..
Will Trump’s threat to attack, force US market to slip further into the abyss and send international investors to flee the US market ? I have no idea what orange face will do but pray for the best.
Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.
Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.
-
Do you think Trump will worsen the situation in Middle East by attacking Iran oil assets’?
-
Do you think US market will rise / recover with earnings report or sink thanks to an unstable Middle East that will further economic repercussions ?
If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?
Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.
Comments