Macro Trend

Monetary policy, various types of price indices... Here is everything about the macro economy!

GOLD: The Overall Market Sentiment has Now Undergone a Dramatic Reversal

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Following the release of the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which was clearly another broad-based positive for gold, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted 0.57% to 98.991. The overall market sentiment has now undergone a dramatic reversal. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ H1 Chart: The candlestick chart shows a pattern of several consecutive large bullish candles shooting up like bamboo shoots, with virtually no significant pullback. The price has now reached a high of $4,510.79. Breaking through the 4,500 level signifies that the medium-term bullish trend in the market has bee
GOLD: The Overall Market Sentiment has Now Undergone a Dramatic Reversal

GOLD: Upside Potential Will Open Up

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! The current price is trading around 4,370. Although it is at a relative high for the day (up +0.95%), it encountered significant resistance after surging to around 4,397.65, leaving an upper shadow on the chart, which indicates some selling pressure above. If the price pulls back to test the support level below and stabilizes there, accompanied by another surge in trading volume, gold is likely to test today’s high of 4,397 again. Once the price effectively breaks through the 4,400 psychological level, upside potential will open up. Here is the strategy for the upcoming New York session: (If the price stabilizes near 4,350) Buy: 4,345–4,350 TP: 4,380–4,385 SL: 4,330
GOLD: Upside Potential Will Open Up
avatarMasterWU
09-03 10:55

.SPX: Still Long-term Bullish Setup

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 7611 was the reactive low -- after the dam's fake break [not exactly yet]. Now, testing from below the purple line--see the RED HAND. So far--the decline from Warsh speech is NOT as impulsive as expected--which gives rise the potential of a complex corrective wave down. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 2 Pretty much nothing happened since my last post. Better do something else, I suppose. 3 MPW Mid-week Update Posted: (1) well, after hitting two small targets, the market took a break and sat there for a day. (2) in a mid-term bearish [weeks], long-term bullish setup [months], this one looks bullish short-term [days].
.SPX: Still Long-term Bullish Setup

Seems like a Big Battle now Between Macro and the AI Narrative

Seems like a big battle now between macro (10Y, Oil, PCE etc) and the AI narrative which is only trending in one direction: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Forecasted 2028 revenue growth at +70% vs Street estimates of 44%. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ forecasts $1.3T in hyperscaler CapEx spend for 2027. 3. $SHKY CEO: "We expect the shortage (on storage) to persist until the end of 2030." 4. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$: "We see structurally massive demand for NAND until 2030." 5. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ giving $Alphabet(GOOGL)$
Seems like a Big Battle now Between Macro and the AI Narrative

QQQ, USO& SPY Enjoy Great Rebound Now

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some technical analysis with you! 1 $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ Inverse head and shoulders still set up here, for now. 2 $United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ Well, they went with the "massive breakout" option for #Oil. 3 $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ vs. $TNX since 2023. With rates back above 4.75%. Which number (1-3) will we look most like? Note: Initially, the market moved higher for at least 6 weeks after this 4.75% threshold was hit. Follow me to learn more about analysis !!
QQQ, USO& SPY Enjoy Great Rebound Now

.SPX: The Next Gap Will be Bridged

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you! 1 The opening low is 7627, lower than the previous lows near 7640. The second part of my prediction is right [break the previous lows within two trading days]. Now, the next step is to fill the GAP at 7600. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 2 THE DAM WILL BE BROKEN--SOON.
.SPX: The Next Gap Will be Bridged

.SPX: The Market Will Follow the History

Boomers are rich because they’ve collected a free 2,000% return over 76 years. Here’s how you can grow your portfolio just like them 👇 Every midterm since 1950 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has never once failed to rally the following year. But first, the market makes you bleed for it SEPTEMBER: THE FLUSH Worst month on the calendar. −0.76% average since 1960, and midterm years hit harder. Every red headline between now and November 3 is designed to make you sell the bottom SEPT-OCT: THE TRAP DOOR Midterm lows hit here, before the vote, not after. 2022 bottomed October 12, then ran 14% in twelve months to new highs. 2018 stretched the pain to December 24. Scale in. Don’t lump in POST-ELECTION: THE PAYOFF 19 for 19. Average returns between 12
.SPX: The Market Will Follow the History

The Commodities / Durable Plays for the Next Decade

The commodities / durable plays for the next decade: Silver | $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$, $Contango Ore, Inc.(CTGO)$, $Hecla Mining(HL)$ -> $DXY is down 2.4% this month. -> M2 money supply is up ~5% in the last 3 months. -> AI buildout relies on silver as it's got the highest electrical conductivity of any metal. -> ~80% of silver is mined as a by-product. Copper | $Global X Copper Miners ETF(COPX)$, $Trilogy Metals(TMQ)$ -> Already incredibly scarce and getting scarcer. -> Forecasted
The Commodities / Durable Plays for the Next Decade

Gold Intraday & Weekly Outlook: Bearish Bias, Sell on Rallies

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Technical Analysis: $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ Gold prices are currently in a clear short-term downtrend and are testing the key support at the lower Bollinger Band around 4,413! After a previous rally (peaking at 4,696.59), gold prices experienced a sharp pullback, exhibiting a clear pattern of lower highs. Currently, the one-hour chart shows a cluster of bearish candles, with bearish momentum dominating. Intraday price action may see either an oversold rebound or consolidation at lower levels. Following a sharp short-term plunge, the deviation between the candlesticks an
Gold Intraday & Weekly Outlook: Bearish Bias, Sell on Rallies

NVDA& .SPX: What's the Similar Pattern?

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ moving in the right direction, as expected in the pattern. 2 SPX is still playing with SMA[20], now sitting at 7668. No decisive move yet--and I have a feeling that the first 1% move will be a trap, either up or down. From $NVIDIA(NVDA)$'s pre-earning reaction so far, the script for SPX looks like, 7620, then 7720, then THE BIG BANG.
NVDA& .SPX: What's the Similar Pattern?

GOLD: Bullish Sentiment Towards Gold is Significantly Intensifying

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Amid a confluence of factors including a ballooning fiscal deficit, frequent interventions in the bond market, and shifting interest rate expectations, gold is once again on its way to the $5,000 mark. From holding above the key $4,000 support level to the potential for its best monthly performance in 25 years, and with institutions raising their year-end targets, bullish sentiment towards gold is significantly intensifying. However, inflationary pressures and the Federal Reserve's policy direction remain crucial variables influencing gold prices, and whether gold can truly break through the $5,000 barrier before the end of the year remains to be seen. $Gold - ma
GOLD: Bullish Sentiment Towards Gold is Significantly Intensifying

NVDA: The Earnings is Leading the Market

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 SPX SMA(20)=7656. Bulls won't give up this point of contest without a fight. Still expect a bounce toward $NVIDIA(NVDA)$'s earnings on Wedn., when a cluster of factors would make the BIG BANG sound across the broader market. Timing is more important than other factors now. 2 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ pre-earning & post-earning play book: 1, a sharp decline toward the earning date. 2, 2-3 days before the earning date, a 50% rebound. 3, post earning day, a sharp pop-up and reversal. 4, plunge afterwards for the same distance of the first leg. It's been a pattern.
NVDA: The Earnings is Leading the Market

The Round of Sharp Gold Price Gains Stem Primarily from Three Factors

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! The core drivers behind this round of sharp gold price gains stem primarily from three factors. First, the weakening U.S. dollar and relatively low U.S. Treasury yields have provided solid support for gold prices. Second, ongoing geopolitical risks—including the U.S. expansion of secondary sanctions against Iran and the escalation of U.S.-Canada trade tensions—have continuously spurred safe-haven buying in the market. Finally, the U.S. Treasury’s plan to expand the scale of Treasury repurchases has been interpreted by the market as a potential erosion of the dollar’s creditworthiness, further highlighting gold’s anti-inflationary and safe-haven attributes. In early Asian trading today, gold surged to a high of $4,696.7. It
The Round of Sharp Gold Price Gains Stem Primarily from Three Factors

GOLD: A Pullback Would Present a Buying Opportunity!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Gold continued its upward trend; a brief technical pullback couldn't halt the upward momentum, meeting my test results from Friday! $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ It has currently reached a high of around 4640! In an hour, gold will test above 4650. Keep buying! 2 Successfully reached above 4650, breaking through the psychological barrier of 4650! There is no effective resistance above, and there's a chance to reach around $4700 before the European market opens. A pullback would present a buying opportunity! Resistance is now above 4700 before the European market opens!
GOLD: A Pullback Would Present a Buying Opportunity!
avatar8899Nar
08-21

BABA: AI Line Begin to Fly

MY $Alibaba(BABA)$ VALUATION MODEL PRICE TARGET: $192 --> $203 POTENTIAL UPSIDE: +61% ✅ "The stock remains undervalued modeling $100B cloud revenue in 5 years and a decent operating leverage" ASSUMPTIONS: LTM Revenue: $149.282B (𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘜𝘚𝘋/𝘊𝘕𝘠 = 𝟩.00) 5Y Revenue CAGR: 10% 2031 Profit Margin: 17% 2031 PE Ratio: 18 Shares outstanding: 2.416B Shares reduction: 1%/year VALUATION: Q2 2031 $Alibaba(BABA)$ SHARE PRICE =149.282 * (1.10)^5 * 0.17 * 18 /[2.416 * (0.99)^5] = $320 You can now choose the discount rate that you prefer, for Alibaba I want to use 12% ACTUAL PRICE: $128 FAIR VALUE: $182 PRICE TARGET (1Y): $203 POTENTIAL UPSIDE: 61% EXPECTED RETURNS: 20.1%/year DIVIDEND
BABA: AI Line Begin to Fly

GOLD: There is Still a Chance for a Second Rally

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 H1: Gold is currently consolidating in a high-level flag pattern (a consolidation phase) following the establishment of a bullish trend. The short-term strategy remains focused on buying on dips, with light positions taken for short-term sell trades at high resistance levels. Rally met with resistance: $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ After surging to around 4548, gold failed to break through in one go. The current hourly chart shows a slightly lower bearish doji or small bearish candle, indicating strong intraday selling pressure in the 4545–4550 zone. Although there has been
GOLD: There is Still a Chance for a Second Rally

Gold: Short-Term Top Confirmed, Pullback Accelerates – Medium-Term Bullish Trend Intact

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Currently, after a sharp rally, the market has confirmed short-term top signals and is in a clear phase of accelerating decline ahead of the European market open. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ The bearish “Dark Cloud Cover” pattern indicates that, after reaching an all-time high of 4,527.45, the 4-hour chart has closed with two consecutive bearish candles featuring extremely large real bodies, completely engulfing the real bodies of the previous bullish candles. Technically, this is a classic signal of a top formation and reversal. Currently, there are no signs of a bottoming out indicated by a lower shadow; prices are expected to continue testing the 4,425–4,430
Gold: Short-Term Top Confirmed, Pullback Accelerates – Medium-Term Bullish Trend Intact

GOLD: The Area Around $4,362 May Mark the End of the Rally

Gold Technical Analysis: $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Currently, the 4-hour candlestick chart is showing a bearish downtrend, heading straight toward the lower Bollinger Band at $4,320. The price pattern has formed a “head-and-shoulders top” and “M-top” structure, indicating a short-term top. Since the pullback from the mid-August high (above 4,450), the highs have continued to decline. The current price has not only broken below the middle Bollinger Band at $4,378, but the short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) have also formed a bearish crossover at higher levels above the price, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The area around $4,362
GOLD: The Area Around $4,362 May Mark the End of the Rally

GOLD: Continue to Buy in the Next Stage

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Technical Analysis: The 1-hour chart for gold shows a sideways consolidation at high levels. The short-term bearish trap has ended, and signals of a bottoming pattern have emerged. Key resistance: today’s intraday highs at 4436–4440! $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ First Support (Short-Term Stop-Loss): 4386–4388 (intraday low and lower Bollinger Band). Second Support (Pivotal Point for Swing Strength): 4374–4376 (key 50% Fibonacci retracement level and resonance zone with the previous consolidation platform; this is a bottom line that bulls must defend at all costs)! Continue to focus on Buy trades. Strategy: Buy: near 4395–96; TP: 4420–4425–4430; SL: 4382
GOLD: Continue to Buy in the Next Stage

GOLD: The Overarching Trend of Gold Remains Bullish

1 The past week saw a dramatic tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the global gold market. Gold opened at $4346 on Monday (August 11th), surging to a two-month high near $4450 mid-week. However, profit-taking led to a sharp 1.3% drop on Thursday, and further declines to a weekly low near $4310 on Friday. Just when bears thought they had the upper hand, unexpectedly weak US retail sales data reversed the tide, resulting in a textbook V-shaped reversal for gold prices, ultimately closing at $4375.80, a weekly gain of approximately 0.8%. The weekly swing of approximately 140 points resulted in a bullish weekly candlestick with a long lower shadow, demonstrating the resilience of the bulls. This was a result of cooling US economic data, expectations of a Fed rate cut, and escalating geopolit
GOLD: The Overarching Trend of Gold Remains Bullish