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avatarMcMillan Daily
05-08 21:48

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/8/2026

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Whether you think it's MOMO (momentum) or FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out), or whatever, it doesn't really matter. This market is a perfect example of why "overbought does not mean sell." Eventually, sell signals will appear, but so far, we have had no confirmed sell signals. This week saw another gap up on the chart, but very little in the way of a pullback that one could count on as a support level. There is weak or minor support at 7175, 7100, and 7050. Then the main support is 7000. If $SPX were to fall back below that, all of the action this month would have been retraced. That would not sit well, but we're not likely to see a pullback like that anytime soon
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/8/2026
avatarOptionsDelta
05-07 01:46

S&P Will Hit 8,000 — But Anthropic Will Decide the Outcome

$SPY$ S&P 8,000 isn't just a random headline. It's backed by recent positioning — a number of far-dated call options at the 800 strike have seen significant volume: $SPY 20270319 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20260930 800.0 CALL$ $SPY 20270617 800.0 CALL$  These were opened at different times: early April, mid-April, and just a couple of days ago. Looking at the expirations, no one expects this to happen overnight — Q3 at the earliest. But at this pace, I wouldn't be surprised if SPY hits 800 by June. The catalyst behind this surge is simple — and I've mentioned it before: Anthropic's revenue da
S&P Will Hit 8,000 — But Anthropic Will Decide the Outcome

Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 5/4/2026

$GOTU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan Join Larry McMillan as he discusses the current state of the stock market on May 4, 2026. https://www.youtube.com/embed/IS7gJNWFAMY$GOTU$ 
Larry McMillan Stock Market Update Video 5/4/2026

To Chase or Not to Chase

$NVDA$ For the first time in nine months, NVDA looks ready to break into a new range. We're now in the phase of testing the upper bound — expectations point to 225–235. Given NVDA's massive market cap, a 10–20% surge isn't exactly typical. That makes selling puts a more comfortable way to chase the move. The strike depends on your risk tolerance. $AMD$ AMD should hit 400 this year. Pullbacks are good entry points. Right now, the bears are targeting the 5-day moving average at 310 and the gap at 300. If this were last year's market, I'd say AMD would either rally into earnings or hold 330 in a tight range, then pull back post-print — a perfect entry opportunity. But after Intel's earnings, those old rules may not apply. That said, Friday's jump likely priced in much of the upside. So the po
To Chase or Not to Chase

Unexpected Earnings Disclosure: OpenAI Roils the Chip Sector

Tonight's price action says it all. The sell-off stems from a rumor about OpenAI's performance — specifically, that the company missed its internal revenue target for the first quarter. That's awkward. Competitors Google and Anthropic are both seeing growth. Only OpenAI is stagnating. If Google and Anthropic fail to deliver results this year, the US market would be looking at a crash far worse than tonight's move. All things considered, tonight's drop isn't that severe. This OpenAI revenue news is essentially a mini-earnings report. Barring surprises, we're likely to see this same dynamic repeat next quarter. On the flip side, we could also see a similar repeat of the Anthropic growth narrative. The biggest issue from OpenAI's miss: the company pre-booked massive data center capacity. If r
Unexpected Earnings Disclosure: OpenAI Roils the Chip Sector

After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In

$VIX$ A large VIX call order hit Tuesday: the 28 strike $VIX 20260519 28.0 CALL$  — 119.6k contracts, $11.48M in premium. A bet of this size implies a sharp, gap-filling move lower in the broader market. In theory, regional conflicts are winding down. The only thing Trump might be missing this time around — compared to 2025 — is that he never got to shout "buy" before the market did it on its own. But triggering a selloff just so he can make a speech? That sounds ridiculous. I'd rather believe someone else has an unknown reason to hedge with volatility. Another less clear VIX call: the 24 strike $VIX 20260722 24.0 CALL$ . The print landed right in the bid-
After the Bounce, Shorts Step Back In

The Market Is Becoming a Meme-Fest

$INTC$ Selling premium in this market is tricky — you never know which stock will catch a hot narrative and get flooded with retail flow. Looking at recent chip earnings, even good expectations aren't enough if the numbers fall short. Intel's earnings should be solid, with full-year guidance likely raised. But some of the run-up is already priced in. Selling puts is still the safer approach — consider the 60 strike $INTC 20260424 60.0 PUT$ . There were quite a few 50-strike puts positioned for a pullback. But given the current CPU hype, 50 will attract strong dip-buying. Most put flow seems to have abandoned the 50 target, shifting focus to the 55–60 range. Earnings could still produce a sell-off. That said, I wouldn't rec
The Market Is Becoming a Meme-Fest

🎯$CNCG Options Strategy :Bull Call Spread

$Leverage Shares 2X Long CNC Daily ETF(CNCG)$ - Underlying: CNCG - View: Cautiously Bullish (Expecting a continuation of the momentum towards the 52-week high, with an acknowledgment of overbought RSI suggesting potential for a pullback/consolidation first). - Strategy Type: Bullish Debit Spread / Directional - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 Call: $20.00 Strike, Expiry 2026-05-15 (Mid Price: ~$1.975) - Sell 1 Call: $22.00 Strike, Expiry 2026-05-15 (Mid Price: ~$0.45) - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: $0.575 per spread (($22 - $20) - $1.525 net debit) = $57.5 per spread. - Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid: ~$1.525 per spread = $152.5 per spread. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit: ~$1.525 per spre
🎯$CNCG Options Strategy :Bull Call Spread

🎯 $Intuit Inc.(INTU) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

$Intuit(INTU)$ - Underlying: INTU - View: Cautiously optimistic for a short-term, oversold bounce. The stock is considered undervalued with building bullish momentum (positive MACD histogram, neutral RSI), but faces immediate resistance. The view is for a move towards the $410-$420 zone. - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1x INTU 5 May 2026 $400 Call - Sell 1x INTU 5 May 2026 $410 Call - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: ($410 - $400) - Net Debit Paid = $10 - $1.40 = $8.60 per spread - Max Loss: Limited to the net debit paid = $1.40 per spread - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit of ~$1.40 (using mid-prices: $9.50 - $4.75 = $4.75; adjusted for near-term expiry
🎯 $Intuit Inc.(INTU) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

🎯🚀 $Silicon Motion (SIMO) Options Strategy :Bull Call Ratio Spread

$Silicon Motion Technology(SIMO)$ - (Underlying): SIMO - (View): Cautiously Bullish, expecting a potential pullback from overbought conditions before resuming uptrend. Aim to profit from a continued rise but with a buffer for a short-term dip. - (Strategy Type): Debit Spread with Positive Theta & Negative Vega - (Option Contract Portfolio): - Buy 1x SIMO Jun 18, 2026 $210 Call - Sell 2x SIMO Jun 18, 2026 $230 Call - (Max Gain & Loss): - Max Gain: $1,000 per spread (if stock closes at $230 at expiration). Unlimited profit potential above $230 is capped by the two short calls. - Max Loss: Limited to the initial net debit. Loss occurs if stock falls below the lower breakeven point. - Breakeven Points: Lower B/E = $210 + Net De
🎯🚀 $Silicon Motion (SIMO) Options Strategy :Bull Call Ratio Spread

🎯 $NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

$NXP Semiconductors NV(NXPI)$ - Underlying: NXPI - View: Bullish (Strong earnings momentum, but RSI overbought suggests consolidation/pullback risk before further upside. Aim to capture a controlled move towards $300+). - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 NXPI June 18, 2026 $290 Call - Sell 1 NXPI June 18, 2026 $300 Call - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = $10 (spread width) - Net Debit. Max Loss = Net Debit Paid. - Initial Cost/Credit: Debit (Estimated ~$3.70, based on chain mid-prices: Buy $290C @ $19.40, Sell $300C @ $14.75 => Net Debit ~$4.65. Adjusted for tighter bid-ask). - Greek Exposure (Simulated): - Delta: ~+0.08 (Moderate positive directional
🎯 $NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

🎯 $INTW Options Strategy: Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)

$GraniteShares 2X Long INTC Daily ETF(INTW)$ - Underlying: INTW - View: Cautiously Bullish (expecting continued upside momentum from the breakout, but aware of extreme overbought RSI and high volatility). - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 INTW 19 Jun 2026 $220 Call - Sell 1 INTW 19 Jun 2026 $245 Call - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = ($245 - $220) - Net Debit Paid. Max Loss = Net Debit Paid. - Initial Cost/Credit: Debit (Cost). Simulated using provided chain: ~$48.40 (Buy $220C ask) - ~$40.25 (Sell $245C bid) = ~$8.15 Debit per spread. - Greek Exposure (Simulated): - Delta: +0.162 (Moderate positive directional exposure). (Buy Delta: ~0.61, Sell Delta: ~-0.537). - Theta: Slight
🎯 $INTW Options Strategy: Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/2026

$CVB.AU$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are on a roll, with S&P 500 ($SPX; SPY), NASDAQ-100 ($NDX; QQQ) and now Russell 2000 ($RUT; IWM) all making new all-time highs simultaneously. Back in January and February, $SPX made a new all-time high by a few points on several occasions, but it was never able to put together a strong breakout rally as follow-through. Eventually, that was onerous, and the market fell. But now it appears to be adding to the breakout gains, which is a very positive sign. Technically, there should now be support at 7000 (the old highs). It would be disappointing to see $SPX trade back below 7000 now, but if it did, there should be support at 6800, and then at the bottom of the gap near 6600. There is no
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 4/17/2026

Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/1/2026

$TVIX$ $UVIX$  By Lawrence G. McMillan The major indices are all enjoying a booming bull move to new all- time highs $SPX, $NDX, and $RUT (while the Dow is closing in on its highs as well). This display of strength has occurred in the face of potential geopolitical worries, which indicates that "the market" isn't too concerned with those. $SPX has strong support at 7000 -- the previous all-time highs -- as well as minor support at 7125 and 7050. The equity-only put-call ratios remain solidly bullish in their outlook for stocks. They continue to drop steadily and sharply. As long as they are declining, that is positive for the market. Breadth has been teetering on the verge of a sell signal,
Free Weekly Stock Market Commentary 5/1/2026

🎯 $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

$Lumentum(LITE)$ - Underlying: LITE - View: Cautiously Optimistic / Oversold Bounce. The stock has rebounded strongly from oversold levels and is testing key resistance at $860. The primary downtrend (per MACD) is not yet fully reversed, so the view is for a limited, consolidation-driven move higher rather than a full-blown breakout. - Strategy Type: Bullish Debit Spread / Directional with Positive Theta (if short leg is closer). - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1x LITE Call, Strike $860, Expiry 2026-05-08 - Sell 1x LITE Call, Strike $880, Expiry 2026-05-08 - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = (880 - 860) - Net Debit. Max Loss = Net Debit Paid. - Initial Cost/Credit: Debit ~$7.25 (Estimated: Long $860 Call @ $72.30, Short $880 Call
🎯 $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

KNSA: Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)

🎯 Options Strategy & Quant Allocation 【Strategy 1: Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)】 - Underlying: $Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals Ltd.(KNSA)$ - View: Cautiously Bullish (Short-term consolidation after breakout, targeting a move towards the $55-$62 analyst range). - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional Bullish - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1 KNSA 18 Jun 2026 $55 Call @ ~$3.525 - Sell 1 KNSA 18 Jun 2026 $60 Call @ ~$2.025 - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = $5.00 - $1.50 = $3.50 per spread. Max Loss = Net Debit Paid = $1.50 per spread. - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit = ~$1.50 - Greek Exposure (Simulated): - Delta: +0.173 (Positive, moderate directional exposure to upside) - Theta: +0.002 (Slightly positive, time decay is neutra
KNSA: Bull Call Spread (Debit Spread)

🎯 General Dynamics Corp. (GD) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

$General Dynamics Corp(GD)$ - Underlying: GD - View: Bullish (Strong breakout post-earnings, targeting $350+) - Strategy Type: Debit Spread / Directional - Option Contract Portfolio: - Buy 1x GD 05/08/2026 $340 Call @ $4.65 (mid-price) - Sell 1x GD 05/08/2026 $350 Call @ $1.80 (mid-price) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain: $715, Max Loss: $285 - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Debit of $2.85 - Greek Exposure (Simulated): - Delta: ~+0.25 (Moderate bullish directional exposure) - Theta: ~-0.05 (Slight negative time decay, mitigated by short leg) - Vega: ~+0.06 (Slight positive exposure to volatility increase) - Gamma: ~+0.01 (Moderate sensitivity near the short strike) - Rho: ~+0.02 (Slight positive interest rate sensitivity) - Rationale: This
🎯 General Dynamics Corp. (GD) Options Strategy : Bull Call Spread

🎯 $UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Options Strategy : Bull Put Spread

$UnitedHealth(UNH)$ - Underlying: UNH - View: Cautiously Bullish (Short-term overbought, expecting consolidation with a bullish bias towards $388 target, but aware of RSI >95 risk) - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk, Positive Theta - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 UNH Put @ $365 Strike (Exp: 2026-05-08) - Buy 1 UNH Put @ $360 Strike (Exp: 2026-05-08) - Max Gain & Loss: Max Gain = Net Credit Received; Max Loss = ($365 - $360) - Net Credit - Initial Cost/Credit: Net Credit (Estimated ~$1.50 - $2.00 per spread, based on chain data) - Greek Exposure (Simulated): - Delta: ~+0.15 to +0.20 (Slightly positive, bullish) - Theta: Positive (~+0.02 to +0.04 daily, per spread) - Earns from time decay. - Vega: Slightly Nega
🎯 $UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Options Strategy : Bull Put Spread

🎯Edesa Biotech (EDSA) Options Strategy : Bull Put Spread

$Edesa Biotech(EDSA)$ - Underlying: EDSA - View: Bullish but expecting a volatile pullback/consolidation; aiming to profit from the stock staying above a lower support level. - Strategy Type: Credit Spread / Defined Risk / Positive Theta - Option Contract Portfolio: - Sell 1 EDSA Put Option (Expiry: ~30-45 days out) with a strike of $11.00 (near key support and analyst target). - Buy 1 EDSA Put Option (Same Expiry) with a strike of $9.00 (providing downside protection). - Max Gain & Loss: - Max Gain: Net Credit Received. (e.g., ~$0.80 per share). - Max Loss: Width of Spread ($11.00 - $9.00 = $2.00) minus Net Credit. (e.g., $2.00 - $0.80 = $1.20 per share). - Initial Cost/Credit: Initial Net Credit (e.g., +$80 per spread). - Gre
🎯Edesa Biotech (EDSA) Options Strategy : Bull Put Spread

Preparing for Post-Earnings Pullbacks

$NVDA$ You have to admit — 200 is a tough ceiling. This week's institutional spread: sell the 202.5 call $NVDA 20260424 202.5 CALL$ , buy the 207.5 call $NVDA 20260424 207.5 CALL$ . Expecting a broader chip pullback after Intel earnings — that 182.5 put $NVDA 20260424 182.5 PUT$  is still open. That said, NVDA likely stays above 190 this week. $TSLA$ Institutional spread this week: sell the 400 call $TSLA 20260424 400.0 CALL$ , buy the 420 call $TSLA 20260
Preparing for Post-Earnings Pullbacks