Two ‘more’ pertinent economic reports were out yesterday, Tue 29 Apr 2025 : US consumer confidence index by The Conference Board. Jobs opening and labour turnover surveys (JOLTs) by US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Needless to say, both were disappointing, to put it mildly. Consumer Confidence Index - April 2025. Consumer confidence for April 2025, sank -7.9 points to 86, its lowest level since May 2020. (see above) It’s a larger decline than economists’ projection of 87.7. Another report, US’s Expectations Index, that captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted -12.5 points this month to 54.4, also the lowest level since October 2011. It is well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead. (see below) In the release, the Conference Board said consumers exp

(Note: This article mainly examines the situation from the perspectives of corporate earnings expectations, investor sentiment, valuation expectations, technical analysis, and historical data. The data is sourced from publicly available materials. The views are for discussion purposes only and should not be taken as direct investment advice.)Recently, Trump's new tariff policy has disrupted the market and even raised expectations of an economic recession. To determine whether the economy is heading towards a recession, it is necessary to continue monitoring the negative impacts brought about by Trump's trade policies and policy uncertainties:Are the Q2 GDP growth rate, consumer confidence index, manufacturing and services indices, leading economic indicators (LEI), and non-farm employment

💰Major indices opened high and continued to rise, with most tech stocks seeing green.💹 $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$/$Marvell Technology(MRVL)$/$Broadcom(AVGO)$ : Catch those stalwart performers in the semiconductor sector.📣 Stay tuned and supercharge purchasing power with CashBoost!The market's been soaring, as Trump's words brought some cheer, and the Fed's signals gets clear.| Market recapThe market has seen consecutive gains on Wednesday and Thursday, accumulating over 5% since Tuesday. A more conciliatory stance from Trump, combined with positive signals from the Federal Reserve, has buoyed the market. Stocks that were at recent price lows, particularly large te

$S&P 500(.SPX) Market Analysis: S&P 500's Death Cross, Powell’s Stance, and the Path Ahead The S&P 500’s recent formation of a "death cross" (50-day moving average below 200-day) and subsequent volatility have intensified debates about whether the index will stabilize, form a double bottom, or plunge further. Here’s a synthesized outlook based on technicals, fundamentals, and geopolitical risks: 1. Death Cross Context: Not All Doom and Gloom - *Historical Precedent*: While the death cross is traditionally seen as a bearish signal, historical data shows mixed outcomes. In 54% of cases since 1971, the S&P 500 had already hit its lowest point before the death cross formed, suggesting potential for a rebound . - Example: The March 2020 death cross preceded a 50% rally with

USD is in trouble... I have said that 2 years ago (dated April 2023) in a series of articles titled, "US pushes China towards world dominance Series (5 Parts Series)".  Not sure if anyone had read that, not to mention remember those... Having said that, when I wrote those, even though I had mentioned Donald Trump as one of the main culprit for the demise of the dollar, the current scenario is not one I had predicted. The rest of those 5 part-series remains intact. I think 🐯 should give those articles another review and share with the readers! @TigerStars  I would love to share them here again (but not sure how to link them). Each article is a heavyweight on their own right and worth a read... I will probably repost

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $NASDAQ(. $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ )$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average(. $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ )$ As of April 16, 2025, the S&P 500 faces a critical juncture. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has dashed hopes of a market bailout, stating, “Our focus is on inflation, not equity prices.” Meanwhile, Citi equity strategists, led by Beata Manthey, have downgraded the U.S. stock market from Overweight to Neutral, pointing to fading U.S. exceptionalism amid challenges like Deepseek, Europe’s fiscal stance, and rising trade tensions. With the index hovering near key support levels, is a double bottom forming, or are we headed for 5000—or low

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Emerging Markets ETF( $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ )$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ )$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund( $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ )$ On April 22, 2025, President Trump’s declaration that he has “no intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell triggered a swift market turnaround. U.S. stocks roared back, with the S&P 500 climbing 2.8% to 5,302, the U.S. dollar strengthening, and bonds rallying, while gold retreated from its highs. Investors are now asking: Is this a massiv

$S&P 500(. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ )$ $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund( $Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund(UUP)$ )$ $ProShares UltraShort S&P 500( $ProShares UltraShort S&P500(SDS)$ )$ $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF( $iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF(EEM)$ )$ The U.S. dollar’s slide below the critical 98 support level on April 20, 2025, has sent shockwaves through financial markets, with the S&P 500 closing at 5,158 on Monday, April 21, after a 2% loss. The CNN Fear and Greed Index, sitting at a jittery 21, reflects a market teetering on the edge of "extreme fear." With the USD Index (DXY) now

The stock market is a high-stakes casino right now, and the Federal Reserve is spinning the wheel. With inflation stubbornly hovering at 3.1% in March 2025 and the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.62%, investors are sweating bullets. The Nasdaq has shed 5.1% this month, closing at 17,342.19, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average clings to 42,108.63 after a 4.2% drop. Whispers of a rate hike—or a surprise pause—are swirling, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Will the Fed’s next move tank growth stocks or ignite a relief rally? Let’s break it down with fresh data, market vibes, and trading plays to ride the wave. The Fed’s Tightrope: Inflation vs. Growth Inflation’s refusing to back down, clocking in at 3.1% last month—above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, jobless claims ticked up to 21

On Mon, 14 Apr 2025, the S&P 500 reached an ominous-sounding milestone even as stocks largely added to their gains from last week’s rebound. When trading ended at 4pm, the large-cap index managed to tally a “death cross” — its first since March 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. S&P 500 - 14 Apr 2025 - Death Cross !! What is a “Death Cross” ? A death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average (ma) of a stock or index dips below its 200-day ma. Technical analysts interpret it as a sign that a correction could be metastasizing into a deeper downtrend. Did You Know ? As US stocks continue to struggle of late in 2025, a death cross has already appeared to: The small-cap Russell 2000 index. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ , it has flashed this pat

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$ServiceNow(NOW)$ Strong Q1 FY2025 Earnings Performance Drives Shares Significantly Higher After HoursCore InsightsGrowth resilience highlighted: management raised guidance despite cautious IT spending environment, reflecting deep product moat (RPO +24% YoY to $18B).AI commercialization speeding up: from "technology story" to actual revenue generation, 2025 may be the inflection point of AI contribution.Strong upgrade guidance: current demand resilience exceeds expectations, customers regard ServiceNow as a "must-have" rather than an optional tool.If the economic downturn leads to a contraction of corporate IT budgets, it may affect the pace of expansion of small and medium-sized customers (current revenue concentration: Top 50 customers account fo

As Jerome Powell continues to stress uncertainties around the economy and inflation—firmly sticking to a “hawkish” stance against rapid rate cuts—President Trump has now “reached his limit,” openly questioning whether he holds the authority to “fire” the Federal Reserve Chair.Though actually removing Powell in practice would be quite difficult—and with Powell’s term set to expire next year, it·s debatable whether such a move would even be necessary—the increasing disconnect between presidential policy and Fed monetary policy has become stark. Against the backdrop of shifting tariff policies, unexpected headlines have started to hit the market with greater frequency. Given Trump’s characteristic unpredictability, it’s hardly unthinkable that he might impulsively announce Powell’s dismissal,

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained a hawkish tone, not only reaffirming the Fed’s stance of being in no rush to cut rates, but also explicitly stating that the Fed would not intervene to support the stock market amid volatility. This firmly dashed market hopes for a "Fed Put", triggering a sharp sell-off in equities on the same day. The following day, Trump publicly lashed out, stating that he intended to fire Powell—once again raising questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Markets fell further in response to the escalating tension. Historically, when the Fed’s independence comes under serious threat, the outcomes have rarely been positive. A similar situation occurred between 1970 and 1974, when Pr

My Investing Muse (05May25) Layoffs, Delinquency & Closure news UPS has revealed plans to cut 20,000 jobs across its U.S. network, while Penske Logistics will eliminate over 300 positions in Missouri. US Xpress in Chattanooga, Tennessee, has also announced 56 job cuts. - FreightWaves Forever 21 is shuttering all 354 of its leased U.S. stores on May 1, 2025. It has been in the midst of massive liquidation sales across the country; sales of up to 60% off were seen throughout April. Mazda will shut down assembly lines for some of its CX-50 production in Canada at its Huntsville, Alabama plant, the first major automaker to halt U.S. production because of the tariffs. - Pedirayudas Layoffs and bankruptcies hit multiple sectors of the supply chain throughout April, as new or soon-to-be-impos