TheMarketLens101
TheMarketLens101
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avatarTheMarketLens101
08-24 18:09
English Caption AVGO remains one of the key beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure cycle, but technically the stock is still in a consolidation phase. 📊 My current view: Cautiously Bullish Key levels I’m watching: 🟢 $340–350 — Major support 🔵 $360–380 — Current accumulation zone 🟠 $400–420 — Key resistance 🔴 $435–450 — Breakout confirmation 🚀 $495 — Previous high The weekly structure remains constructive as long as the rising trendline holds. A convincing breakout above $435–450 would strengthen the case for another move toward the previous high. For a 12M FCN, if the priority is reducing KI risk rather than maximising coupon, I prefer: 75–80% Strike | 60% KI At around $221, the 60% KI sits near an important historical support / consolidation zone, providing a stronger downside buffer if t
avatarTheMarketLens101
08-24 17:58
24 Aug 2026 — Daily Market Update US stocks rebounded last Friday as stronger US services data and improving corporate earnings expectations eased recession concerns. However, Treasury yields remain elevated, oil prices continue to rise, and geopolitical risks around Iran are still keeping overall risk sentiment cautious. S&P 500: +0.43% to 7,674.37 Dow Jones: +0.98% to 53,277.01 Nasdaq: +0.44% to 26,180.46 US 2Y Treasury: roughly unchanged at ~4.19% US 10Y Treasury: +4bps to ~4.69% ⸻ 1) China steps up consumption support while AI and semiconductor earnings remain strong * China’s Ministry of Finance further upgraded its consumer-loan interest subsidy programme, extending support through end-2026. * Credit-card instalments are now included, with fiscal subsidies covering 1 percentage p
avatarTheMarketLens101
08-23 09:03
Bullish on NVDA - One of the Catalyst NVIDIA’s $500B AI Financing Plan —  What It Actually Means?$NVIDIA(NVDA)$   NVIDIA’s newly announced >$500 billion AI infrastructure financing initiative sounds like NVIDIA is spending $500B itself. It isn’t. The $500B refers to a target amount of third-party capital that could be mobilized over time through financing partners such as Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR. The objective is simple: Make it easier for companies to finance AI infrastructure instead of paying the entire cost upfront. 1. Where does the $500B come from? Capital can ultimately come from: * Pension funds * Insurance companies * Sovereign wealth funds * Private cred
avatarTheMarketLens101
08-22 09:12
Daily Market Update — 22 August 2026 U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as strong services activity and resilient earnings supported sentiment, although Middle East tensions, higher oil prices and elevated bond yields kept investors cautious. S&P 500: +0.43% to 7,674.37 Dow Jones: +0.98% to 53,277.01 Nasdaq: +0.44% to 26,180.46 U.S. 2Y Treasury: ~4.23%, up 1–2 bps U.S. 10Y Treasury: ~4.74%, up 4 bps 1. Geopolitics & Trade * Iran rejected U.S. economic pressure, while China opposed unilateral sanctions. * Diplomatic channels remain open, but Hormuz-related risks are still a concern. * U.S.-Canada trade talks are progressing, with lower tariff terms under discussion. * Trump temporarily exempted selected ground beef imports from tariffs. Impact: Oil and bond-yield risks could continue t
21 Aug 2026 — Daily Market Update U.S. stocks fell as higher Treasury yields, rising oil prices and concerns over consumer spending weighed on sentiment. At the same time, the latest developments from Alibaba, Broadcom, Microsoft and Micron show that AI investment is still accelerating — but investors are increasingly focused on whether these massive investments can generate sufficient returns and how they will be financed. S&P 500: -0.87% to 7,641.16 Dow Jones: -1.32% to 52,759.21 Nasdaq: -1.00% to 26,067.17 U.S. 2Y Treasury: roughly flat at 4.19% U.S. 10Y Treasury: +4 bps to around 4.70% U.S. 30Y Treasury: around 5.24% ⸻ 1. Alibaba: AI monetisation is improving, but cash flow remains under pressure Alibaba’s quarterly revenue rose about 9% YoY, slightly above expectations, while AI a
20 Aug 2026 — US Market Daily US stocks ended a three-day losing streak as the Treasury’s surprise move to expand long-term bond buybacks helped push longer-dated yields lower. Moderna’s successful Phase 3 cancer vaccine trial also boosted healthcare stocks. However, hawkish Fed minutes and continued US-Iran tensions kept risk appetite in check. S&P 500: +0.21% to 7,707.98 Dow Jones: +0.22% to 53,463.05 Nasdaq: +0.16% to 26,331.09 US 2Y Treasury: +1 bp to ~4.18% US 10Y Treasury: -6 bps to ~4.65% ⸻ 1. Iran tensions remain high, but Trump leaves the door open for talks * Trump said the US may resume negotiations with Iran “at some point,” reversing his tougher stance just a day earlier. * Washington is still waiting for clearer signs that Iran is willing to compromise before formally res
19/08/2026 Renewed US–Iran tensions pushed oil prices and global long-term borrowing costs higher. At the same time, concerns over AI valuations, massive capital expenditure and financing models weighed on sentiment. US equities fell for a third consecutive session, led lower by semiconductors and memory stocks, while defensive and energy sectors were relatively resilient. S&P 500 fell 0.69% to 7,691.76 Dow Jones fell 0.22% to 53,343.40 Nasdaq fell 1.33% to 26,289.71 US 2-year Treasury yield was broadly unchanged at around 4.18%–4.19%. US 10-year Treasury yield fell around 2 bps to 4.71%, after reaching an intraday high of around 4.75%, close to its highest level since early 2025. ⸻ News 1 — China’s Tech AI Transformation Accelerates: Xiaomi Smartphone ASP Hits Record High, Baidu GPU C
18/08/2026 The renewed deadlock in U.S.–Iran negotiations pushed oil prices and long-term Treasury yields higher, weighing on U.S. equities for a second consecutive session. However, concerns over AI demand and capital expenditure eased, driving a strong rally in memory and semiconductor stocks and pushing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index back into a technical bull market. (Reuters) S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,745.06 Dow Jones fell 0.51% to 53,459.78 Nasdaq fell 0.31% to 26,644.91 (Reuters) The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose around 1 bp to approximately 4.18%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose around 3 bps to approximately 4.73%; the 30-year yield briefly reached around 5.31%, its highest level since 2007. (Barron’s) ⸻ News 1) U.S.–Iran talks hit another deadlock as Trump escalates

Daily Update

17/08/2026 U.S. equities pulled back slightly from record highs on Friday, as weaker-than-expected retail sales and rising shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea weighed on risk sentiment. Meanwhile, the AI theme remains intact, but the market is shifting its focus from “Is there enough demand?” to “How will massive AI infrastructure be financed, powered and delivered?” S&P 500 fell 0.17% to 7,785.76 Dow Jones fell 0.20% to 53,732.41 Nasdaq fell 0.28% to 26,729.16 U.S. 2-Year Treasury yield fell ~5 bps to ~4.15% U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield fell ~5 bps to ~4.63% ⸻ News 1) Strait of Hormuz tensions escalate: U.S. and Iran clash over “control” as shipping nears a standstill * Trump said the U.S. could declare the Strait of Hormuz “U.S. territory” after defeating Iran, esca
Daily Update
TSLA: Stock View + FCN Structure 1. Stock View TSLA is trading around the $340 area, still inside a large multi-year triangle. The positive is that price recently tested the rising support around $295–310 and bounced, suggesting buyers are still defending the long-term uptrend. However, TSLA has not yet broken the descending resistance from its ~$499 high. Key levels: * 🟢 $295–310: Major support / attractive risk-reward * 🟡 $330–350: Current accumulation zone * 🟠 $380–400: First major resistance * 🔥 $410–430: Breakout confirmation * 🚀 $499: Previous high The DMI remains cautious: +DI: 17.0 | −DI: 34.2 | ADX: 24.9 With −DI still above +DI, selling momentum remains stronger on the weekly chart. My call: Cautiously bullish. Accumulate around current levels, add closer to $300 if support holds
Bull! Why is the AI Bull Market is Back? The market previously sold off because investors feared that AI spending was rising faster than the profits it generated. The latest earnings season has started to answer that concern: demand remains strong across almost every layer of the AI supply chain, while AI investment is increasingly translating into revenue. 1. Cloud: AI is finally being monetised Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet reported accelerating cloud growth: * AWS revenue increased 37%, its fastest growth in 18 quarters. * Azure revenue rose 43%, while Microsoft 365 Copilot surpassed 30 million paid seats. * Google Cloud revenue surged 82%, supported by AI infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions. The market’s main concern was the enormous increase in AI capital expenditure. Higher c
14 August 2026 Softer producer inflation, falling oil prices and fading rate-hike expectations lifted technology stocks and pushed the S&P 500 to another record close, although a weak 30-year Treasury auction showed that long-term fiscal and interest-rate risks have not disappeared. S&P 500 rose 0.65% to 7,798.99 Dow Jones rose 0.13% to 53,839.99 Nasdaq rose 0.81% to 26,803.03 US 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 6 basis points to 4.14% US 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 5 basis points to 4.64% Market data: Reuters⁠ ⸻ News 1) US July PPI came in below expectations, while lower oil prices further reduced pressure for a September rate hike * The US Producer Price Index was unchanged month-on-month in July, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. June’s reading was r
【Voting Post】2027 Memory Outlook: HBM/DRAM Remain Tight, While NAND Supply Eases The memory market may begin to diverge in 2027. TrendForce expects NAND Flash to remain undersupplied throughout 2026, with an estimated supply deficit of 4–5%. However, as new capacity and more advanced NAND production ramp up, supply could begin exceeding demand in the second half of 2027—particularly if smartphone and notebook demand remains weak. This does not mean NAND demand is collapsing. AI data centres continue to drive strong demand for enterprise SSDs and high-capacity storage. The concern is that supply may eventually grow faster than demand, reducing NAND manufacturers’ pricing power. Investment implications: • SK Hynix $SK hynix(SKHY)$  remains best positio
Markets Pause Near Record Highs Ahead of CPI — Is 3.4% the Pass Mark? U.S. stocks are pausing near record highs ahead of today’s July CPI report. The market expects headline inflation to ease to 3.4% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.5%. But with expectations for a September rate hike now near 50-50, the details—not just the headline number—could determine whether the rally continues. Previous Data: Numbers and Impact * June CPI: Headline -0.4% MoM / +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% / +2.6% Impact: Lower gasoline and shelter inflation reduced rate-hike fears and supported bonds and technology stocks. * June PCE: Headline -0.1% MoM / +3.7% YoY; core +0.1% / +3.3% Impact: Monthly inflation cooled, but elevated annual PCE kept the Fed cautious. * June JOLTS: Job openings fell to 7.36 million Impact:
11 August 2026 Renewed deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices and US Treasury yields higher, while concerns over Nvidia’s financing model and Intel’s share offering weighed on technology stocks. All three major US indices closed slightly lower. S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,753.12 Dow Jones fell 0.11% to 53,976.04 Nasdaq fell 0.32% to 26,605.36 US 2-year Treasury yield rose approximately 4 basis points to around 4.24% US 10-year Treasury yield rose approximately 6 basis points to around 4.70% ⸻ News 1. US-Iran tensions escalate as the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain; oil jumps about 5% * Iran had demanded compensation from the US and Israel for war-related damages, making it one of the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. * Trump responded by instru
Payrolls Fell 23,000, Yet Stocks Hit a Record — Can Wednesday’s CPI Keep the Rally Going? The U.S. unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, but the S&P 500 still closed at a record high. Why? Investors interpreted weaker employment as reducing the likelihood of another Federal Reserve rate hike. Wednesday’s July CPI will now determine whether that “bad news is good news” rally can continue. Recent Economic Data: Cooling Inflation, Weakening Jobs July 14 — June CPI * Headline CPI: -0.4% MoM, +3.5% YoY * Core CPI: 0.0% MoM, +2.6% YoY * Gasoline: -9.7% MoM * Shelter: +0.1% MoM Inflation cooled sharply, although much of the improvement came from lower energy prices. July 30 — June PCE * Headline PCE: -0.1% MoM, +3.7% YoY * Core PCE: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY * Real consumer spending: +0.4% The Fe
10 August 2026 Weak US employment data lowered expectations for a rate hike, driving a rebound in US equities and Treasuries last Friday. Over the weekend, Berkshire Hathaway’s strong earnings and AAOI’s results boosted interest in optical networking stocks. However, renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz negotiations and an attack on a Saudi Aramco refinery raised energy-supply risks. S&P 500 rose 0.62% Dow Jones rose 0.28% Nasdaq rose 1.30% US 2-year Treasury yield fell approximately 5 basis points to around 4.20% US 10-year Treasury yield fell approximately 2 basis points to around 4.64% All three major US indices advanced last Friday, mainly because US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, significantly weaker than expectations for an increase of 80,00
Record Earnings—So Why Did Memory Stocks Fall Together? Recently, $SNDK$,$WDC$,$MU$,$SKHY$,$STX$ all experienced sharp pullbacks. Strictly speaking, Micron, SK hynix, and Sandisk are producers of DRAM, HBM, or NAND memory chips, while Western Digital and Seagate mainly focus on enterprise hard disk drives. However, under the broader AI data-center investment theme, the market often treats all five companies as part of the same “AI storage trade.” This selloff does not mean that demand for AI storage has suddenly disappeared. Instead, it appears to be a broad repricing of the sector as elevated valuations, high expectations, and excessive leverage cooled simultaneously. 1. Macro Environment: Lower Rate Pressure, but Capital Rotated Out of Memory Stocks U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedl
#Reward: Tech Stocks — Buy the Dip or Run for the Exit? My answer: I would buy the dip selectively—but I would not blindly chase every AI stock. This does not necessarily mean that the AI story is ending. Now the market has moved from asking, “Is AI real?” to asking, “Which companies can convert AI spending into sustainable revenue, profit and cash flow?” AI investment is finally producing measurable returns The latest results from the major cloud companies provide strong evidence that AI capital expenditure is beginning to generate real commercial returns. Microsoft reported quarterly Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27% year on year, while Azure and other cloud-services revenue increased 43%. More importantly, its commercial remaining performance obligations reached $678

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