To The Moon

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is down -1% so far this week, losing its central weekly level of 7,707.1 as anticipated on Saturday and breaching the bearish target of 7,642. The index is currently testing the critical 7,638 zone; if it isn’t reclaimed quickly, the downward move could gain momentum. Meanwhile, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ , which was hovering at year-to-date lows and primed for a bounce, has rallied +13% this week alone. Once the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ lost the anticipated Central Daily level of 7,700 overnight, the bearish continuation was triggered to start the month. The E-mini futures found temporary morning support at 7,651

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is heading into a turbulent seasonal month. Over the last 40 years, the SPX has seen a positive close in September just 48% of the time. This is well below the 72% historical positive average that I mention as the benchmark based on the last 70 years; anything notably above or below that reference gains relevance. Worth noting as well, the average move for September over the past 40 years has been -0.84%. A 48% win rate is a significant deviation to consider, and its relevance increases when you see that August is closing in the green this year. When I analyzed the years individually, many of the green Septembers were preceded by a red August, and vice versa, meaning that the window for a healthy pullback is narrowing. This

In his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone centered heavily on price stability: Inflation Focus: Warsh stated that with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge sitting at 3.7%, prices are running too far above the 2% target. He warned, “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.” Monetary Tool Reaffirmation: He clarified that short-term interest rates remain the Fed’s principal tool to combat price pressures, and noted he would be “hard pressed” to describe current financial conditions as restrictive. Limiting Forward Guidance: Warsh advocated for a “quieter” central bank that avoids overcommitting to futu

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rallied strongly. The earnings report beat expectations and pushed the price up +8.7%, driven by a morning move that left a consolidation/indecision for the afternoon. Interestingly, $Micron Technology(MU)$ closed slightly in the red at -0.3% and $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ at -0.9%, failing to participate in the rally, while $Broadcom(AVGO)$ and $Texas Instruments(TXN)$ did so with +4.4% and +1.8% respectively. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained traction, recovering its central weekly level while facing resistance at the month

U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, August 25, 2026, driven by a rebound in semiconductor companies and a pullback in oil prices and Treasury yields. Investors largely downplayed escalating geopolitical and trade headlines, focusing instead on key events scheduled for later in the week. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ moved within the range of daily levels posted yesterday, with 210 serving as the Central Daily Level and 213 as the next level if the price stayed above it. There is still work to do to recover the central weekly level and completely flip momentum. However, a positive for the bulls, though it does not guarantee a bullish reaction to the earnings report is that the gaps analyzed in the Weekly Compass at 213 and 208.7 were cleared yesterday with the

On August 3, I flagged a bearish reversal in $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ based on the price action. The 256 support level has now been reached, confirming the target. With Amazon becoming increasingly oversold, trailing stops are key for short positions from here. 📌 Monday’s game plan: Above 258.9: bullish bias → watch 260, then 263 Below 258.9: expect choppy action around 256 and 254.9 The key is how price reacts around 258.9. A clean reclaim would favor a short-term bounce, while failure to recover it keeps the downside structure intact. Amazon closed at $258.63 on Aug. 21, putting it almost directly at this key pivot.

Technical analysis has proven to be a powerful edge for both long-term investors and traders. Over the past weeks, I have provided documented calls with clear references to significant moves in the market, and this week offers a good opportunity to connect precise calls. On July 29th, I called the bullish reversal for $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ with specific levels. While many analysts had been constructing the bull case for months, Gold had already dropped roughly 30% from its peak, a drawdown that even the most committed long-term holders struggle to sit through without a technical framework to lean on. The call was documented, $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ is up +13.9% since my note, the levels were clear,

U.S. stocks experienced a turbulent, bruising week of trading. Despite a relief bounce on Friday, all three major U.S. stock indexes posted weekly losses. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined following a high probability setup posted last weekend, the index lost on Monday the anticipated Central Weekly Level (CWL) of 7,773. The CWL has proven to be a key threshold to define bullish conditions when the price is above it, or bearish conditions when the price is below it. The bearish destinations modeled in advance for this week were 7,729, 7,673, and 7,630. All of them worked as levels that framed this week’s action, with 7,729 acting as resistance on Wednesday, 7,630 acted as support zone on Thursday, and by Friday 7,673 was the key zone for the bounce

As posted yesterday, the setup for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust(DIA)$ looked mostly bearish. The central daily levels provided of 7,717 for the SPX, 534 for DIA, and 7,730 for the $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2609(ESmain)$ , were shared to validate the bearish setup if the price stayed below them. The SPX did open below the central daily level (CDL) that sets momentum. When the price stays below it, the structure favors the bearish thesis, and the opening far below it validated the technical setup. Next, the price lost 7,690 and attempted to fill the daily gap, but momentum vanished quickly, flipping the 7,690 defense

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ doesn’t behave like a stock or a bond. There are no earnings to model, no dividends to discount, and no CEO to blame when the price drops. What gold reflects, more than anything else, is the collective confidence people have in the institutions managing money. When that confidence is high, gold is ignored. When it starts to crack, gold gets attention fast. $Silver - main 2609(SImain)$ follows the same logic but adds a wrinkle: it has a real industrial life. Solar panels, electronics, electric vehicles, medical equipment. That dual identity makes silver louder, more volatile, and more interesting to trade, but also harder to hold when the industrial cycle turns against it